Fernando

Buffett Serving Free Lunch? (Part II)

David,
Buffett can hedge himself from that settlement day selling by shorting futures in advance

Food Prices Will Only Rise: The Time to Buy is Now

arable land havent increased but that land has became more productive over time

Wells Fargo Downgraded: Oppenheimer's Whitney Goes Too Far

heres what the WFC bulls are missing. THE HOUSING MARKET IS BIGGER AND MORE POWERFUL THAN WFC MANAGEMENT. it doesnt matter that wfc had a better than average underwriting(like that says much) if people get in negative equity they will default even if they had high credit scores and good credit history. what matters is their skin on the game, that is evaporating very rapidly. 'warren buffett told me to' is not an argument to buy a stock, wfc will take big writedowns from their heloc exposure, it doesnt matter that they were conservative, people are defaulting, thats a fact

What Would Buffett Do? 3 Safe Financial Picks

wfc has $84B heloc exposure that they carry on their books at 94c on the dollar. how can you be sure they are not being upfront about the value of this portfolio?this a securities that have 0% recoveries, it could easly be only worth 50c and that would be a massive writedown for wells. meredith whitney is on the record saying wells will need to raise money...

NATCO Group: Energy Supply Shortage Will Power Growth

I'm currently researching NTG. how likely you think its that the market will eventually have a flood of oil tech companies and margins will shrink for NTG and others?currently margins seem to be expanding but I wonder when the peak will come and if there is any value at a 15 forward pe

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

"As to Fernando's point--I'm not convinced that yesterday's $1 billion announcement was simply a restatement of what TMA did in February. In fact, I am pretty convinced it was not."

It was the announcement but it probably took them jan and feb to find the investors and setup the security. I believe is extremely unlikely CMOs will bail them out, if that were the case TMA would have already done all the cmos in the world.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

I agree jack. I plan to buy the preferred but only after the knife stops falling or there is some kind of stabilization. the reward will be much smaller because the stock will run like hell if there is capital injection but at least its a more conservative play. TMA has a pretty good business model and their leverage subject to margin calls as they stated on their 10K is a little less than 5-1(17%). now some of those securites WILL NOT be sold simply because the company used its $500m of liquidity capacity to keep them afloat. so even in the event of forced selling it wont be all that $10b. lets say they sell $6b at a 10% loss. thats $600M. thats already built in on the share price but I prefer to wait and take a lower risk entry, I'm not going to try to be a hero as there is just too many uncertanties

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

why you bought the F preferred as opposed to the others?

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Why the F preferred as opposed to the others?which is the most senior?I would agree that the preferreds are the better bets. but I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife, nobody knows how much they will lose on a forced selling scenario

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

their leverage is actually 5-1 on securities subject to margin calls. they lost $1.1B liquidating $21B in aug or about 5%. if they lose 5% again on $10B, thats $500M so as it currently stands there is almost no risk of bankruptcy. but of course the sale could endup costing more then 5%

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Hartwell, do you know what are the differences between the various preferreds?

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

on page 40 of the 10k they say they increased their liquidity position by issuing CMO when talking about the margin calls. this was late feb, it was $1b, they did $6b the entire 07. there is no way that $1b happened in march, it was over the course of jan and feb. they were just desperate to halt the stock decline and reannounced yesterday

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

jack you didnt got your facts right. the CMO debt financing did not happen yesterday or so. It was already announced on the 10K, the announced yesterday was a desperated attempt from company to halt the stock decline. they were already doing cmo during jan and feb

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Erich, even in the event on forced selling TMA could be a good opportunity because its unlikely they will lose all book value, investors will price in the end of humanity on the stock and then people can get in cheap without additional problems of margin calls but just profiting from the arbritrage from peoples reluctance to buy a REIT plus all the potential the company has going forward, what do you think