Can'tSpotABubble?

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    • Sun Sep 7th 08:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Home Inventories Soaring? Not Exactly
      If your market is similar to mine then I believe the statistics do not tell the complete story regarding inventory. In my area there are many REO properties that are NOT on the market. The bank is sitting on them. This is probably due to the fact that once they sell, they will be required to reflect the loss on their balance sheet. The statistics also do not reflect pent up seller demand. Many people would like to sell but are not putting their house on the market in hopes the market will improve later.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 18:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Housing Starting to Form a Bottom? NAHB HMI, Permit and Housing Starts Update
      I'm getting real tired of every pollyanna trying to call the housing bottom. Here's an easy way to tell we have reach normal, sustainable pricing:

      1) I by a property with 20% cash down, no fudging on this amount of any kind or assistance.

      2) I rent said property to a tenant at a market rate

      3) I have positive cash flow day one after P.I.T.I and associated costs

      Until that day is reached we are no where near a bottom.

      Period.... End of story.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 21st 11:58 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Merits of Staying in Cash
      Bravo ! Good analysis. LEP good comment, but don't forget that this downturn will affect many companies outside U.S. too.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 6th 19:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Note to NYT: Dick Syron is Not Clairvoyant
      Horse Hockey !

      1. Not 2005, as early as 2001 were underwriting standards questionable. When I was offered a mortgage for more than 10 times my income I decided to become a renter instead.

      2. Nobody in this mess wants to fess up to their part in it. That is why this will continue to drag on for quite some time.

      3. Don't get me started on the GSE's. They should go into receivership and be wound down until they no longer exist.

      4. Duh! Anyone with half a brain who has been paying attention should know this fact....

      5. I usually like Tanta's analysis.

      6. Duh! See #4

      7. Please stop posting on Seeking Alpha, I truly do not enjoy your contributions. They are lacking in every respect.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 09:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Boomberg: End of CA Housing Decline in Sight?
      Well I'm glad to hear that houses in the ex-burbs far away from anything are finally selling at 40 - 60% off in California. That is starting to show some pricing reality. Unfortunately, here in the midwest sellers are still trying to cling to 2005 pricing. Few properties are selling in this market and those that do are usually 15 - 25% lower than 2005 levels. The price to rent ratio is still historically skewed. Prices need to fall at least another 25% here before they will be in line with historical norms. There is also a large amount of foreclosed inventory that is NOT on the market (usually held by smaller regional banks) since attempting to sell would further depress the market and the banks involved would have to realize the loss on their balance sheet.

      This is nowhere near over yet. Of course everyone is still trying to call the bottom. The bottom cannot be reached until the financial players fess up on their balance sheets. Until that happens, if ever, we will continue to muddle along with American style socialism.

      Here's the easy way to tell if the real estate market is correctly priced.

      I can buy a rental house with 20% down and experience positive cash flow on DAY ONE.

      We are still a long way from that happening.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 31st 11:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bush Housing Law: Cheap Compared to the Alternatives
      No wonder this is article sounds like he's a shill. The man is a journalist, the largest bunch of apologists for the current gatekeepers. Did anyone read his article about Hank Paulson being a "Rare Keeper". If I didn't know better I'd have thought this to be satirical comedy. Go write gossip about Britney or Maddonna, that's what journalists do best these days. Facts and real analysis are so foreign to your profession today as to be considered quaint.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 18:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Long Housing Boom Won't Yield to a Brief Recovery
      Aren't you glad the House of Representatives today voted to give a blank check to crooks like this via the Fannie/Freddie bailout? Unfortunately you the taxpayer will be expected to cash the check with the fruits of your labor, and that of your children, and your grandchildren.

      Let's just stop all pretense of a free market in America and call it what it plainly is.... Socialism without health care, roads, bridges, education, etc.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 12th 18:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Semi-Upbeat Housing News
      The sales you are seeing are from the bubbleheads who think these prices are a steal. The next round is coming and they will be shown for the fools they are.... never try to catch a falling knife.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 11th 18:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie & Freddie: Affirmative Action for the Rich and Stupid
      BRAVO !
      View article »
    • Wed May 28th 19:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Realtors, Prepare to Lose Your 6 Percent
      "3% goes to the listing agent and 3% goes to the selling agent representing the buyer."

      WRONG at least in my state. Unless you have entered into a specific buyer agent relationship, both sides of the transactions fiduciary responsibility is to the seller. The buyer has no representation in the transaction unless it is explicitly spelled out.

      BTW It's easy to determine the posters who are agents, trying to justify their existence.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 4th 15:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Note to the Bubble-Phobes
      You can't be serious? Anyone who was paying at least the slightest attention to real estate could have seen that we were headed into a bubble as early as 2002. I echo the sentiments of other posters about our "officials" looking the other way to corrupt practices.

      I realized we were in a bubble in 2002, sold my house for the highest price ever in the subdivision, the day it was put on the market. In Missouri no less. They wanted to close so quickly I had to rent what I thought at the time was a short term apartment before buying another house. A month after the close, I visited a mortgage broker buddy who told me I could borrow with little or no documentation, TEN TIMES my annual income.

      Thank god I had the sense to walk away and continue renting my "short term" apartment. BTW my apartment is 25% of the cost of "owning" the same space in the same neighborhood even at current prices. That only figures PITI and not other associated costs.

      I also am grateful that I had the sense to get out of the market completely (with the exception of some long positions I've had almost 20 years) on the recent run up.

      When real estate dips below it's historical norms, as it will since everything overshoots on the downside, I'll be standing there with a pile of cash to buy my next house outright. Meanwhile my landlord can continue to eat negative cash flow and subsidize my domicile.

      I imagine the real interesting times will start when AMBAC or MBIA is finally given up for dead. Or perhaps when one of the larger financial institutions fess up about a 100 billion dollar skeleton in their closet (Citigroup).

      In the mean time, get some funds out of dollars (Canadian dollar for me @ .70, a 40%+ profit at todays rate). Get anything else other than your REALLY longs under FDIC cover, buy a bit of gold, and buy staples in bulk as the prices will continue to rise.

      I think that double edge sword of a Chinese proverb is coming true....
      May you live in interesting times.

      Preserve your capital accordingly.
      View article »
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