Can'tSpotABubble?'s Comments

American Dream 2: Fun with Dick and Jane Deleveraging

Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:12:45 -0500

Hardly,

The stealing was conceived by mortgage brokers, real estate agents, et al up the line. They knew they could sell any garbage they created in a AAA rated wrapper in the debt markets.

The lack of fear is the primary cause of this mess. When a lender feared not being repaid they were much more stringent in qualifying a borrower. The fear of not being repaid kept everything in check. The absence of that fear is why we are in the place we are today.

On Dec 10 06:06 AM User 353732 wrote:

> Strategic defaults are theft.
> First, millions of Americans borrowed beyond reason to satisfy their
> addictions to instant gratification and pander to their vanity. Now
> , millions are resorting to theft to do the same things. Bad, destructive,
> behavior has not changed: merely its manifestations.
> Excessive borrowing has, is having and will continue to have malign
> personal, family, community and civic consequences. The consequences
> of theft via strategic defaults will also be malign.
> The US Regime lies, cheats and steals and calls it "visionary" public
> policy. Hardly surprising then, that millions of the Regime's subjects
> are adopting the same "vision".

We Never Even Got Close to 900,000 Jobless Claims

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:05:06 -0500

Did anyone see that Mark Perry advocated insider trading on his personal blog?

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Looks Like a Bottom for Residential Construction Spending

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:30:48 -0500

You've called the bottom many times before with regard to housing, so I must take your post with a grain of salt. You never really know a bottom until you are several quarters past it.

According to Treasury Spread Model, No Chance of a Douple-Dip Recession

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 22:08:52 -0400

More pollyanna from Prof Perry....

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Remember, this is an *economist* saying this. And yet I highly doubt that any respected economist would buy this, nor is the market (A2/P2 less AA spread, TED spread both blown out to ridiculous levels).
www.federalreserve.gov...

U.S. Housing Market Has Likely Bottomed

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:47:54 -0400

I saw the headline and thought Mark Perry was the likely author. I forgot about his Asian twin.

Is Housing Back?

Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:02:06 -0400

When is SA going to can this clown? We need to start calling you Dr Happy. Come out of the ivory tower Mark!

More on the Great Housing Recovery Debate

Sun, 16 Aug 2009 23:36:40 -0400

There is no freaking debate amongst those who are sane. Housing will NOT recover until there is across the board price reversion to the mean with respect to incomes and inflation.

My criteria for knowing housing has stabilized is the far off day that I can buy a property with 20% down cold, hard cash and turn around the following day and rent said property and have at least $1 of annual positive cash flow after P.I.T.I. and associated expenses.

I'm getting real sick of everyone calling the bottom. I've been hearing it for over 2 years now.

The bottom will not be ascertained until we are at least 2 quarters past it. That day seems far away.......

Housing Affordability Falls: Is Real Estate Market in Recovery?

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 10:50:15 -0400

Professor Perry's record speaks for itself.... Follow his advice at your peril:

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

What a Housing Rebound Could Mean for Dollar ETFs

Fri, 31 Jul 2009 12:21:29 -0400

Your premise of a real estate recovery is severely flawed... hence so is the remainder of your analysis.

Has the Housing Market Reached a Bottom?

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 18:25:46 -0400

I'm so tired of MP.... Thanks tuj for calling him out. Don't bother going to his blog, if you post anything that is contrary to his fairy tales you will find your post deleted.

What Will Prompt a Housing Recovery?

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 02:16:48 -0400

Lower prices.....

NY Fed Treasury Spread Model Suggests Recession Will End This Year

Sun, 07 Jun 2009 22:37:16 -0400

@PainfullyAware

You hit the nail on the head... Here's a brief synopsis of the Prof's record...

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Time to Buy Real Estate in California?

Thu, 04 Jun 2009 18:36:44 -0400

Here's the way to tell if IHS is right. Go buy some CA real estate with 20% down, turn around and rent it out. If after PITI and all expenses you have money left over then the property is correctly valued.

Some Odd Stats in Pending Home Sales

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:29:34 -0400

Let's see how many of them actually close since financing costs are up about 25%.

California Real Estate Market Recovery: Sales Boom, Unsold Inventory Drops

Sun, 31 May 2009 21:38:50 -0400

Hat tip to the original poster.....

Dr Perry's record speaks for itself....

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Remember, this is an *economist* saying this. And yet I highly doubt that any respected economist would buy this, nor is the market (A2/P2 less AA spread, TED spread both blown out to ridiculous levels).
www.federalreserve.gov...

The U.S. Housing Market's Very Sobering News

Sun, 31 May 2009 10:49:33 -0400

"How do we reconcile the information in Mr. Sullivan's article with Jim Cramer's call that the on going housing catastrophe will bottom in just 30 more days? "

You can't.... Cramer is an idiot.

California First Time Home Buyer Affordability Surges in First Quarter

Sat, 16 May 2009 06:58:38 -0400

Pollyanna Perry strikes again!

Mortgage Spreads Are Getting Very Tight

Wed, 06 May 2009 06:44:00 -0400

Don't buy on the rate buy on the price. Wait a while longer... you'll be glad you did.

Las Vegas Home Sales Increase 85% in March

Wed, 06 May 2009 03:20:06 -0400

It's amazing what can happen when prices revert to the mean. Although I don't buy the "housing recovery" nonsense. There is still too much inventory, shadow inventory, and pent up seller demand for the market to recover any time soon. If prices are allowed to revert to historical values (which the powers that be are doing everything possible to avoid) we may see a national uptick in sales. Unless the reversion occurs, expect a decade of stagnant or slowly declining values. I won't event throw in demographics which will likely keep prices in check for the next 20 years or so.

Why the Coming Inflation Is Good

Tue, 05 May 2009 08:21:02 -0400

So we should debase our currency to continue bailing out those who made poor and/or reckless decisions?

Have We Seen the Housing Bottom?

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 07:26:54 -0400

Housing Market 'Green Shoots'

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 22:19:49 -0400

I should have added to the above that I continue to rent in a very nice area (the one I intend to buy in) at 35% of the cost of owning the same amount and quality of space.

Housing Market 'Green Shoots'

Wed, 15 Apr 2009 22:17:33 -0400

Please consider the source..... The NAR is not a credible source of any information relating to housing. Their chief shill Lawrence Yun, the rosiest of economists on housing whose forecasts for YEARS have been pollyannish at best and criminal at worst uttered these words the other day.

“It feels worse this time because people’s lifetime savings have evaporated, and home values are actually falling. Growth is weak because consumers have given up. ... Spending is contracting at a really fast rate”

I don't really pay attention to the new home market because I'm not interested in living in a far flung ex-burb. In the pre-existing areas I am interested in, here's the state of the market.

Sellers still clinging to 2005 prices, no inventory moving. A lot of shadow inventory and pent up selling demand from banks and speculators.

Nothing will change until the market capitulates and accepts lower prices.

Backyard Economics Is Backward Economics

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 18:19:22 -0400

There is something to be said for buying locally. I try to buy most of my food from local farmers. I like to meet the people who grow and raise my food. The freshness of the product is usually superior to anything I can get at the grocery store. I also almost exclusively patronize locally owned restaurants, preferring those that are family run. The service is FAR better than ANY chain establishment and the owner treats their customers as something of an extended family. The food is usually superior as well, and any special requests are normally fulfilled to perfection.

Commodity items like electronics, books, non-consumables, etc.. I buy those from whoever offers me the best combination of price and service regardless of location. Sometimes the local mom & pop hardware store (yes some still exist) is more expensive but the best deal around. If I don't know what I'm doing on a house project, I know I can walk into the hardware store and tell them exactly what I'm trying to accomplish and they will provide the materials and advise me on their application. That is the sort of service you will never find at a big box retailer at any price.

Haven't First-Time Homebuyers Heard of Roubini?

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 08:37:04 -0400

Here's the view in my area:

Most seller's still clinging to 2005 prices, no inventory moving.

LOTS of shadow inventory on the sidelines.

I guess your first time homebuyers have not heard of Meredith Whitney either.

NY Fed Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started and Recession Will End This Year

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 23:05:55 -0400

The damage to the economy is contained. We expect slower than normal growth in the future, but growth nonetheless.

Mortgage Rates Drop to Record Low of 4.85%

Sat, 28 Mar 2009 23:09:02 -0400

As usual the Dr provides no analysis or context to his post. I suggest you see "Mortgage rates are low. So are approval rates"

money.cnn.com/2009/03/...

FHFA Consistently Understates Level of Housing Decline

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 07:25:09 -0400

Thank you for the analysis Bruce, good job.

Record 1.7% Home Price Index Increase in January

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 07:19:47 -0400

Everyone should also look at the another SA article containing actual analysis by Bruce Krasting on this subject at:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Record 1.7% Home Price Index Increase in January

Wed, 25 Mar 2009 06:49:34 -0400

I think "seasonally adjusted" is the key word here. What is the raw data point? Seasonally adjusted usually implies some fudging of the data to obtain a more favorable result.