Can'tSpotABubble?

We Never Even Got Close to 900,000 Jobless Claims

Did anyone see that Mark Perry advocated insider trading on his personal blog?

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

U.S. Housing Market Has Likely Bottomed

I saw the headline and thought Mark Perry was the likely author. I forgot about his Asian twin.

Housing Affordability Falls: Is Real Estate Market in Recovery?

Professor Perry's record speaks for itself.... Follow his advice at your peril:

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

NY Fed Treasury Spread Model Suggests Recession Will End This Year

@PainfullyAware

You hit the nail on the head... Here's a brief synopsis of the Prof's record...

No credit crunch: seekingalpha.com/artic...

US Economy doing quite well: seekingalpha.com/artic...

We're still a long way from a banking crisis: seekingalpha.com/artic...

A little perspective, according to the world of Dr. Mark Perry:

First, there's no recession:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Second, the monetary base was growing at an acceptable rate:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Third, the big one, there is no credit crisis:
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Especially because, "banks are lending at record levels":
mjperry.blogspot.com/2...

Backyard Economics Is Backward Economics

There is something to be said for buying locally. I try to buy most of my food from local farmers. I like to meet the people who grow and raise my food. The freshness of the product is usually superior to anything I can get at the grocery store. I also almost exclusively patronize locally owned restaurants, preferring those that are family run. The service is FAR better than ANY chain establishment and the owner treats their customers as something of an extended family. The food is usually superior as well, and any special requests are normally fulfilled to perfection.

Commodity items like electronics, books, non-consumables, etc.. I buy those from whoever offers me the best combination of price and service regardless of location. Sometimes the local mom & pop hardware store (yes some still exist) is more expensive but the best deal around. If I don't know what I'm doing on a house project, I know I can walk into the hardware store and tell them exactly what I'm trying to accomplish and they will provide the materials and advise me on their application. That is the sort of service you will never find at a big box retailer at any price.

NY Fed Model Suggests Economic Recovery Has Started and Recession Will End This Year

The damage to the economy is contained. We expect slower than normal growth in the future, but growth nonetheless.
</sarcasm>

Did Job Layoffs Peak in January?

"Another second hand, dry, cut-and-paste bit. I'll be in the car."

Exactly, the Mark Perry Modus Operandi

Housing Crisis Is Key to Economic Recovery

Steven

Good analysis. There will be no normalcy in the markets until asset prices are allowed to correct and the bad debts are flushed out of the system. Government intervention in the markets must cease too. I've been sitting on the sidelines for several years waiting for house prices to correct before becoming a homeowner again. The way things are going, it seems that will be several years away if ever.

How Bad Was the 1980s Real Estate Crash?

I would expect more technical analysis from a person of your education. Simply trotting out NAR charts and making blanket generalizations that are removed from facts and context won't cut it and sincerely leads me to believe you are campaigning for Lawrence Yun's job as others have suggested. I won't bother to tear this to shreds as I'm quite sure others will and I have more important things to do right now. (cook dinner for the kids)

Systematic Risks: Implications for Regulation and the Bailout

So to understand your comment, the government becomes a landlord of last resort? I'm sorry, but that idea is simply ridiculous.

It is time for government to step aside and let the markets correct. If they are concerned with a functioning banking system, take the $350 billion they are considering throwing down a hole and capitalize 10 new banks with $35 billion each. These banks should comply with 10:1 leverage limits. It's time to end this farce and let the "too big to fail" institutions fail. The shareholders should be wiped out, the bondholders take a haircut and let's get back to business.

The business environment will not return to normalcy until the bad debt in the system is forced into the open and defaulted. The markets cannot function normally while there is the ever present specter of government intervention in the markets looming at all times.

An Alternative to the Trillion Dollar Deficit

For this "crisis" to come to a conclusion, ALL the bad debt must be forced into the open and defaulted. Until this happens the powers that be will continue to paper over the debt. The longer we wait for this eventuality, the harder the fall will be.

Will 2009 Bring Ring Three of the Financial Circus?

Steven,

Excellent article. Thank You

A Note to the Bubble-Phobes

You can't be serious? Anyone who was paying at least the slightest attention to real estate could have seen that we were headed into a bubble as early as 2002. I echo the sentiments of other posters about our "officials" looking the other way to corrupt practices.

I realized we were in a bubble in 2002, sold my house for the highest price ever in the subdivision, the day it was put on the market. In Missouri no less. They wanted to close so quickly I had to rent what I thought at the time was a short term apartment before buying another house. A month after the close, I visited a mortgage broker buddy who told me I could borrow with little or no documentation, TEN TIMES my annual income.

Thank god I had the sense to walk away and continue renting my "short term" apartment. BTW my apartment is 25% of the cost of "owning" the same space in the same neighborhood even at current prices. That only figures PITI and not other associated costs.

I also am grateful that I had the sense to get out of the market completely (with the exception of some long positions I've had almost 20 years) on the recent run up.

When real estate dips below it's historical norms, as it will since everything overshoots on the downside, I'll be standing there with a pile of cash to buy my next house outright. Meanwhile my landlord can continue to eat negative cash flow and subsidize my domicile.

I imagine the real interesting times will start when AMBAC or MBIA is finally given up for dead. Or perhaps when one of the larger financial institutions fess up about a 100 billion dollar skeleton in their closet (Citigroup).

In the mean time, get some funds out of dollars (Canadian dollar for me @ .70, a 40%+ profit at todays rate). Get anything else other than your REALLY longs under FDIC cover, buy a bit of gold, and buy staples in bulk as the prices will continue to rise.

I think that double edge sword of a Chinese proverb is coming true....
May you live in interesting times.

Preserve your capital accordingly.