Gregg Thurman

Apple: Set to Double Again

Been doing this for a long time and Stefan is correct, although conservative in his future estimates. Cash and revenue (whether deferred or not) is not the same thing. Cash is what is left over after costs are deducted from revenue. Deferred revenue only means that it has not been reported because of an accounting rule. It does not mean that the sale did not happen.

How Apple Stock Should Be Valued: P/FCF

The problem with the way Wall Street's use of PE, is their belief that PE multiples are arbitrary and can be good (too low) or bad (too high). That concept is a bastardization of what PE measures. Investor Sentiment.

PEs are neither good nor bad, they are what they are, period.


Buyers and Sellers determine a stocks value, not Wall Street, so the equation of Price divided by earnings = PE should be altered to earnings X investor sentiment (PE) = price.

That puts the focus on the market's (investors) reaction to all sorts of variables. By tracking the market's past reactions you can make a reasonable assumption (sans superfluous and unrelated issues) as to what Apple's PE (I prefer referring to it as ISM - Investor Sentiment Multiplier) will be 4 times each year. Earnings report and conference call guidance.

That said I like valuing Apple by its FCF, but that requires real work on the part of Wall Street, and I'm not sure there is a lazier group of people, except when they're in pursuit of a commission, on the planet.

iPhone to Create Earnings Bonanza for Apple

The author's analysis is full of factual errors and does not include deferred COGS. Its worthless.