Seeking Alpha

Internal Source

Internal Source
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Internal Source's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Apple: Take The Money And Run [View article]
    Just when I thought I'd read the worst-written articles on SA about AAPL, I then read this one. Don't know where to start, so I'll let my colleagues take the lead...
    Sep 7, 2012. 05:31 PM | 48 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Will Apple Bulls Spin This? [View article]
    He gets a lot of hits on these sensationalist articles and those hits mean cash in the hand. He also missed a 200 point run-up in AAPL because he felt he was "too emotional" about it and now plays sour grapes, scoffing at those who were once in his camp - all couched in the argument that "Apple post-Steve will never succeed". Then he says "oh, I mean in the long-term, not short to intermediate-term" to account for any run-up it may see in the future. If you counter his arguments, he says you're "emotional". If you ask for numbers to back up his claims, he says you're "naive" or you just don't "get it" somehow. This is the current Rocco "schtick". Hey, I guess we all have one...
    Apr 30, 2012. 11:26 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Sell Apple [View article]
    I don't mind taking profits at the right times... but this article is incredibly poorly timed and lacking substance. Won't even go into details - I'll let my more verbose cohorts do so - but to not be long AAPL between now and, say, Feb 13, is a colossal mistake unless you're a pattern day trader flitting in and out and trying to time the name (very hard to do).
    Aug 28, 2012. 05:28 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "We've got a little more to show you," says Apple (AAPL +1.9%) in an invite for a widely-expected Oct. 23 event to be held in San Jose at 1PM ET. All signs point to an iPad Mini launch - will new Mac Minis and a 13" retina MacBook Pro also arrive? [View news story]
    This is going to be a disaster event with ridiculous price points and bad margins, a total failure, a sign that they... oh wait, I'm not pirota.... ;)
    Oct 16, 2012. 12:43 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The New Buy and Hold Stock [View article]
    Hahaha... thanks for my morning laugh! Serious fundamental analysis, there. Lots of detailed, evidenced points made (heh-heh...)

    Everybody, check this guy's previous 166 comments out. Literally every one of them since October has been anti-Apple. Most of them prior to then are as well. Let's see, how much money did you *not* make by not buying AAPL when it was an "overvalued" at 250, then 275, then 300, then 310, then 320, then...? Or did you put your comments where your wallet is and go short? Thanks again.. needed to see that "the greater fool" theory is not just that!
    Mar 15, 2011. 04:19 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Behave? Probably Not [View article]
    Current stock price is 330. Company will likely earn $22-25/share this year (four quarters). Forward P/E is 13-15x, shockingly low for the past and forecast growth rate (say 60%, and even if you bring it down to a low 15% you're looking at paying only one times growth for the company - a bargain).

    As usual, we see the "it's just too big..." argument. 10-20% penetration in most markets (even lower in some segments) means there is a lot of opportunity to bring that up. Just think - look around your office - if even half (or 10%!) of those computers were running Apple instead...
    Mar 21, 2011. 08:43 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Why I Was So Wrong About Apple [View article]
    A bubble is an irrationally high valuation effect, which AAPL does not enjoy right now at 12x forward consensus earnings (trailing earnings are not meaningful) and 9-10x ex-cash (which is significant); the PEG ratio of 0.6 or so is wildly low, akin to that of a mature industrial name at best. Don't look at the "parabolic" chart, look at the metrics - anybody can be fooled by a chart. The price is merely catching up to a more rich valuation and PE expansion. Aren't AMZN or Salesforce or CMG much more bubble stocks with their high valuations?
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:52 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Too Big For This Market? [View article]
    All I'm saying is that when a company gets this big, it is time to step back and see if it's realistic.

    Based on what?

    Size of company = market cap = earnings & multiples & float = AAPL earning, say, $50/share in 2012 x multiple of, say, 10 = $500 stock, times the float... what's unrealistic if you have the earnings? If anything the PEG ratio way under 1 is unrealistic.

    It's like saying it's unrealistic for the sun to be that bright, or the sky to be that blue, we should reassess because they "look" too bright or blue or "feel" wrong.
    Feb 16, 2012. 10:52 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Steve Jobs (AAPL) takes medical leave of absence, leaving COO Tim Cook in charge again. Jobs: "Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought." AAPL -8% in Frankfurt. (PR)  [View news story]
    Nobody's talking about the fundamentals. Steve or no Steve, the company is forecast to earn anywhere from $20-26 per share in 2011. Apply a 20 multiple to the shares and you have a $400-500 stock. Unlikely earnings will suddenly drop (anything Steve had part in innovating for 2011-2012 is likely to be in late stage testing now) and multiples will contract (the firm's growth rate is unlikely to suddenly fall, and the multiple of growth investors will pay isn't likely to fall) so I see the effect on the shares to be the usual knee-jerk reaction, and fundamentals will prevail ultimately. Other posters talk about WMT, MSFT, etc. but they are all about market saturation, whereas Apple (with comparatively small share) is all about growth.
    Jan 17, 2011. 11:14 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An 8GB Wi-Fi-only version of the iPad Mini (AAPL) will cost just $249, according to an inventory screenshot leak - that would make the device, expected to sport a 7.85" display, $50 more expensive than the 7" 8GB Nexus 7 and 16GB Kindle Fire HD. But a 16Gb Wi-Fi version will go for $349, as will an 8GB 3G/4G version. The most costly model listed (a 64GB 3G/4G unit) will reportedly sell for $649. Apple is expected to unveil the Mini at an Oct. 23 event. (retina MacBook Pro[View news story]
    Pirota, we're all sorry you're only earning $600 a month in Albania. But that's no reason to criticize the pricing of AAPL's devices since you can't afford them. Price competition is not the issue. It's about differentiation. Note the price of the most expensive models. There's a BMW 3-series and 1-series, as well as a 6-series and 7-series. Different target markets.
    Oct 15, 2012. 12:38 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Wouldn't Trade Apple Right Now [View article]
    What we have with AAPL, I believe, is an upward correction in multiple; i.e. multiple expansion to a level closer to where its peers fall. PE and PEG ratios closer to 14-15 and 1+, respectively. The stock trades about 10 forward P/E now; a move to 15x FY12 earnings of, say, $48 gets you a $720 stock. It's on its way there. The mutiple expansion is due to product cycle, dividend, blowout Dec quarter, just the fundamentals. Sure there are II and other factors but the case I make is viable without.
    Mar 22, 2012. 03:11 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Apple Risks Revealed [View article]
    The biggest risk to AAPL is that I waste time reading this pedestrian article and spend less time on iTunes or the App Store buying stuff. Haw-haw...
    Sep 8, 2012. 12:45 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook's Apple Mistakes Piling Up [View article]
    Worst AAPL article I read all year. Seems to fit in with this week's cast of clowns (started with Balter) trying to push the stock down to find a better entry point. No real fact-based points made. Article is surprisingly short, too - I think my grocery list is usually longer.
    Aug 23, 2012. 05:21 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Will Not Be Listening To Apple's Earnings Call Live [View article]
    It's a "racket" for you? I think you just lost all of the minimal credibility you had. Next thing you know you'll be like Cramer and tell everybody how to play in the "game"...

    Careful with your response to a lady, by the way... ;)
    Apr 24, 2012. 04:44 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Too Far Too Fast? [View article]
    Zero insight in this article from an author who uses trailing PEs (versus forward PEs, which are the relevant ones given that the market is forward-looking) and whose claim that it just "has" to go sharply down isn't backed up by any logical supporting evidence (say, put-call open interest, hedge fund or institutional investor stats, sophisticated technical or stochastic trends, etc.).
    Mar 3, 2012. 01:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
313 Comments
609 Likes