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Option Trader Friday Outlook: Is the Dollar Going UUP?

before run off to another article, and forget, had to say, great article :

nice comprehensive array of data and shennanigans going on 'round the dollar -

our shared store of value for our hard efforts...

like you mentioned, "Where is all this money coming from...this money is not excess money at all, this money is being squeezed out of the pockets of the labor force, who have been forced to accept not only the same pay but LESS pay in dollars from their employers, driving their standard of living down a stunning 12% in just one year while their corporate masters make stunning 'productivity' gains as they get much, much more for much, much less...."

the weaker-dollar-is-good-... is, truthfully, only meant for a few of us, though not me ;-)

The Fed: Sending Investors to the Slaughter?

regarding, from the article, "...do you buy now or wait it out for the inevitable bust?" -

considering it's been generally reported that the retail investor is largely missing from most the recent rally, as are many institutional investors, with most the buying done by the few, and more than a few of that few using tax payer monies to drive the market up, i'd say...

save what you have, or cash out your profits, "maybe" have a few shorts, but generally, wait it out....

Is the Hated U.S. Dollar About to Rally?

regarding, from your article (nice article, gain, btw ;-)

"Or is it possible, no matter how unexpected, that another financial Crisis is currently beginning to unfold, and the Dollar’s moves are a sign that the investors are already beginning to shift towards safe havens like they did in 2008?" -

actually, in an interview last week by maria b of cnbc with geithner (sp?) he specifically mentioned the dollar as a refuge during crisis as proof it was strong enough, ie, fed didn't need to raise rates -

seems to me, they're counting on a crisis to "save" the dollar, for now -

what with the european banks in such bad shape, china's miracle development mostly accounting (gdp is added to when a loan is made) and make work (empty bldgs and factories that idle workers built), plus geo/military/political stuff popping up like geysers wanting to be volanoes, there's some soundness in the reasoning there -

just not a soundness that would build a lasting recovery or trust and faith in our financial system, or that or currency would once again be a reliable store of value for our work....

CGTS FOR FRIDAY 6 NOVEMBER: THE DOLLAR, TBONDS AND SHORTING KBH HOMES

nice article, thanks!

regarding, from your article :

"The demand for TBonds is losing strength however...

"What this weakness in TBonds will do to the Fed's plan to force interest rates down a rabbit hole will be something interesting to watch over the next month of so...." -

i've heard several fed friendly analysts on tv say this would steepen the yield curve, and...

allow the fed to keep short term rates ultra low, which all would greatly benefit those who can borrow at the super low rates, and lend at the higher ones -

ps, that doesn't include me ;-) but i would definitely benefit from a stronger dollar, and being able to get a decent yield on a treasury note or bond....

Schwab's Commission-Free ETFs: A Watershed Event

just off hand, gotta think this is a good thing....

How Bloomberg Fabricates U.S. Housing Numbers

two things:

and the worst of all these misrepresentations has been and will be a continued mistrust in large financial institutions by most regular people; this could take a lot of work and time to heal -

and, if our stats are bad, what are we to think of the chinese (or any other country whose data we can't begin to hardly analyze) reports?

but it's a two way street, i think - the average american will have to care enough and be willing to put enough effort into learning about the economy and finance, to force our own elected officials to give us the honest adult truth - something we could work from, for sustainability....

China in a Bubble?

not if you listen to most the financial media on cable tv ;-)

what i do sense though is, both bears and bulls have extreme views on either side, which, i would think, probably means increased volatility -


On Nov 01 03:20 PM Brian McMorris wrote:

> Funny!! What is in a bubble right now is Bearish sentiment.

USD Outlook: Short Term Up; Long Term Down. Here's Why

nice overview, thanks!

in regard to (from the article) :

"...because there has been no change in the fundamental weaknesses of the USD, in the longer term i.e. over the coming years, there is no reason to believe at this time that the USD's downtrend will not resume...." -

and THE most fundamental weakness, i believe, unbalanced budget (excess debt and debt service), though agreed to by our own elected representatives, is and will ultimately be seen as the responsibility of the people who continue to put those kind of representatives in power...us.

i truly believe, as the average american continues to learn about finance, and takes responsibility for "keeping up," there's a "chance" our country will once again belong to most of us, and not the few of us....

Another Reason You Should Be on the Sidelines Now

great chart / graphic, worth a few thousand words at least!

thanks!

China in a Bubble?

i don't know (really) - but i don't get the impression the possible bubble is being acknowledged as such by most market bulls -

i won't count big bears, since they think most everything's a bubble anyway ;-)

which it might....

Dollar Danger: Iran's Oil Bourse Steps Up Activity

there's been numerous articles, check out mish on minyanville for example :

www.minyanville.com/ar...
"Ten Reasons to Ignore the Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings"

and

www.minyanville.com/ar...
"Why Would Anyone Want to Hold Dollars?"

that seem to present a good argument why whether iran prices its oil in dollars or euros actually matters that much - interesting perspective....

besides, all those value swings that may be caused by wild price swings in oil, wouldn't that then affect the "new" currency of choice? i don't know, but i wonder....

Positive Signs for the Dollar from China's FX Reserve Growth

a weaker dollar is just another inflation, eating away at our purchasing power and store of wealth -

when the majority of people realize they gain the least, and pay the most proportionately, for the benefit of exports and the market, when imports and the economy are more important (to that majority) -

then politicians will sense it's time to shift away from the lobbists, if they want to be re-elected....

The Dollar's Decline is Slowing Down

whatever all these varying and conflicting views mean, and they are definitely interesting -

if the currency we all use here in our own country lets us buy less with it, then a weaker dollar is just another form of inflatlion, robbing us of our earned wealth and store of value -

we need a strong dollar...and, as a country, be strong enough to have that be...

the market, as we're often told when convenient, is not the economy -

the market is not the majority of the people in terms of ownership of total stocks or of wealth / assets within the majority's usable or stored weatlh -

exports are not as important to the majority as import costs -

solutions? less debt, more savings -

universal health care? if we want it, we need to pay for it : end one war : choose life or death -

and really, do we need individual soldiers with hand carried weapons to do what drones or threat of neutron bombs or, god forbid, goodwill negotiations could do?

basically, i'm just saying the solutions are there, but we need the will, and leadership, to do it -

we can, our leaders can...now, we must....

Volume Sends Contradictory Signals Across Asset Classes

very interesting useful info regarding the volumes of the differing indexes -

the notice about the volume changes, up and own, on the large down day for uup, was particularly interesting -

thanks!

Falling Dollar: Finally Front-Page News

excellant overview with pros and cons regarding the dollar :

"I-Believe-in-Strong-D... Turns Relic as China Begs (Update2)"

By Matthew Brown and Oliver Biggadike
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg)

my own biased excerpts ;-)

"Americans are getting poorer...."

"The decline means it’s becoming relatively more expensive to live in the U.S. The difference in per-capita income with Canada has shrunk 87 percent since October 2008...."

www.bloomberg.com/apps...