oaksleeksbeans's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/160341/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175831-electric-vehicles-vs-natural-gas-vehicles?source=feed#comment-789509 789509
Of course you would charge the car at night and sell the on-peak solar power.... That simply makes economic and utility operational sense.

I would encourage policy makers to require anyone wanting a plug in vehicle to also invest in solar power.

Why use natural gas?]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:37:02 -0500
Of course you would charge the car at night and sell the on-peak solar power.... That simply makes economic and utility operational sense.

I would encourage policy makers to require anyone wanting a plug in vehicle to also invest in solar power.

Why use natural gas?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176169-solar-power-thin-film-developers-feel-besieged?source=feed#comment-789349 789349
Could they be the game changer they have said they are?

Jigar and Jerry... what have you heard?


n]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:06:09 -0500
Could they be the game changer they have said they are?

Jigar and Jerry... what have you heard?


n]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173754-cloud-peak-energy-hopes-investors-will-warm-to-ipo?source=feed#comment-764754 764754 Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:50:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128375-even-thin-solar-can-t-weather-silicon-glut-barron-s?source=feed#comment-445844 445844 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:53:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128304-want-solar-panels-china-will-pick-up-the-tab?source=feed#comment-443865 443865
First cost: $5/watt
Cost after incentive: $2/watt
Generation per year: 1.4 kWh
Generation over two years: 2.8 kWh

Cost of power required to payback over two years:
$2/2.8 kWh = 71 cents a kWh

Electric prices are not that high, not even in Hawaii. I currently pay about 13 cents per kWh here in the Midwest.

You can be sure that power prices are far lower in China.]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 08:03:32 -0400
First cost: $5/watt
Cost after incentive: $2/watt
Generation per year: 1.4 kWh
Generation over two years: 2.8 kWh

Cost of power required to payback over two years:
$2/2.8 kWh = 71 cents a kWh

Electric prices are not that high, not even in Hawaii. I currently pay about 13 cents per kWh here in the Midwest.

You can be sure that power prices are far lower in China.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112391-two-calculated-risks-possibly-worth-taking?source=feed#comment-340231 340231 Mon, 29 Dec 2008 06:54:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102252-ldk-solar-has-caught-my-attention?source=feed#comment-292932 292932
I believe the Chinese gov't will stand behind most of the larger Chinese solar firms... not letting them fall or run out of credit.

okb]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:40:51 -0400
I believe the Chinese gov't will stand behind most of the larger Chinese solar firms... not letting them fall or run out of credit.

okb]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88870-lithium-ion-batteries-and-centerfolds-the-final-chapter?source=feed#comment-223791 223791
What are your thoughts on ultra capacitors?]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 08:01:53 -0400
What are your thoughts on ultra capacitors?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83810-ldk-solar-the-brightest-opportunity?source=feed#comment-199501 199501
I do not see a huge near term future for thinfilm because is it less efficient, requires more racking, more installation labor, more balance of system and is bulkier to ship. It makes the most sense in large open field arrays.

Also the open sunny land for large field arrays - is only available in some areas. Siting it will increasingly be a challange. Simply look at what the BLM recent tried in the SW U.S. by attempting to put a halt to solar development for two years. That story is not over.

Concentrated solar only makes sense where there is significant direct been radiation (i.e., dry deserts)... which is not where people live. Instead we tend to live in areas with clouds and rain.

Crystalline Si solar electric technology looks to maintain it edge over other technologies due largely to it proven high efficiency that can work under direct and diffuse beam radiation. The modules deserve their 25 year warrantee.

But their price needs to come down - as all solar analysts, CEOs and consultants predict.

Crystalline modules make sense on rooftops because they are more efficient. But also because they compete against the retail price of power (and can reduce the building's demand charges) not the wholesale price of power (unlike an open field array).

Upgraded Metallurigcal Grade silicon is already playing a roll in the Crystalline SI market (note CSIQ and Timmenco). It will be mixed with Poly and help drive down module prices toward grid parity sooner. It is grid parity that will exponently grow markets for poly. I predict that UMG will only help grow polysilicon sales.

Today when a Kohl's department store in CA is covered in crystalline solar electric modules it meets about 20% of the building's energy needs. Put on thinfilm and it will meet 10% of the building's needs.

Roof space is limited - so efficiency really matters.

Now think of electric cars and plug-in hybrids charging up and the world's space heating needs moving from natural gas to electric heat pumps. There will be an explosion of electric demand... every sunny roof will want to be covered with the most efficient modules available.

And those modules, for the foreseeable future, are polysilicon.]]> Sun, 06 Jul 2008 23:40:44 -0400
I do not see a huge near term future for thinfilm because is it less efficient, requires more racking, more installation labor, more balance of system and is bulkier to ship. It makes the most sense in large open field arrays.

Also the open sunny land for large field arrays - is only available in some areas. Siting it will increasingly be a challange. Simply look at what the BLM recent tried in the SW U.S. by attempting to put a halt to solar development for two years. That story is not over.

Concentrated solar only makes sense where there is significant direct been radiation (i.e., dry deserts)... which is not where people live. Instead we tend to live in areas with clouds and rain.

Crystalline Si solar electric technology looks to maintain it edge over other technologies due largely to it proven high efficiency that can work under direct and diffuse beam radiation. The modules deserve their 25 year warrantee.

But their price needs to come down - as all solar analysts, CEOs and consultants predict.

Crystalline modules make sense on rooftops because they are more efficient. But also because they compete against the retail price of power (and can reduce the building's demand charges) not the wholesale price of power (unlike an open field array).

Upgraded Metallurigcal Grade silicon is already playing a roll in the Crystalline SI market (note CSIQ and Timmenco). It will be mixed with Poly and help drive down module prices toward grid parity sooner. It is grid parity that will exponently grow markets for poly. I predict that UMG will only help grow polysilicon sales.

Today when a Kohl's department store in CA is covered in crystalline solar electric modules it meets about 20% of the building's energy needs. Put on thinfilm and it will meet 10% of the building's needs.

Roof space is limited - so efficiency really matters.

Now think of electric cars and plug-in hybrids charging up and the world's space heating needs moving from natural gas to electric heat pumps. There will be an explosion of electric demand... every sunny roof will want to be covered with the most efficient modules available.

And those modules, for the foreseeable future, are polysilicon.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83580-will-some-solar-companies-face-a-cash-crunch?source=feed#comment-197407 197407
So as investors we want them to grow as quickly as possible. But of course it is a tightrope.

My sense is that the Chinese government is very supportive of growth and gaining scale needed to dominate the world market.

Am I wrong in saying that the Chinese government will provide resources to companies that start falling off the tightrope?

Relax... seems like this may be a good period to buy solar stocks.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 14:18:50 -0400
So as investors we want them to grow as quickly as possible. But of course it is a tightrope.

My sense is that the Chinese government is very supportive of growth and gaining scale needed to dominate the world market.

Am I wrong in saying that the Chinese government will provide resources to companies that start falling off the tightrope?

Relax... seems like this may be a good period to buy solar stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83092-3-aspects-to-pricing-oil?source=feed#comment-195042 195042 1. we are running out of oil the cheap (easy to find, easy to refine, flows out of a well) stuff first.
2. demand and supply are very close - resulting in more firms wanting to hedge future prices
2. demand and supply are very close - resulting in speculators being able to influence near term pricing]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 07:38:10 -0400 1. we are running out of oil the cheap (easy to find, easy to refine, flows out of a well) stuff first.
2. demand and supply are very close - resulting in more firms wanting to hedge future prices
2. demand and supply are very close - resulting in speculators being able to influence near term pricing]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-184104 184104
I always enjoy reading your commentary and wished you had time to look into a few other areas of the market.

However I am not sure how picking solar stocks relate to your think tank idea? Or will it be a stock analyst think tank?

a U Michigan grad]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 10:01:26 -0400
I always enjoy reading your commentary and wished you had time to look into a few other areas of the market.

However I am not sure how picking solar stocks relate to your think tank idea? Or will it be a stock analyst think tank?

a U Michigan grad]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77458-powershares-wilderhill-clean-energy-etf-pbw-holdings?source=feed#comment-170293 170293 Mon, 19 May 2008 23:30:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77781-solar-investors-understand-silicon-supply?source=feed#comment-170288 170288 Mon, 19 May 2008 23:18:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76916-will-ldk-s-new-company-create-competition-for-first-solar?source=feed#comment-166512 166512
It only really makes sense if China itself and its neighbors are going to start doing utility scale open field arrays.]]> Mon, 12 May 2008 18:22:51 -0400
It only really makes sense if China itself and its neighbors are going to start doing utility scale open field arrays.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73738-further-musings-on-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-159062 159062
Good agricultural land produces 5 dry tons of biomass an acre per year, each dry ton can produce roughly 100 gallons of fuel per ton and if we assume cars can get 50 miles per gallon, than each acre of land could produce enough fuel to drive a car 25,000 miles per year.

About 250 kilowatts (kW) of solar electric modules would fill that same acre of land. In Wisconsin that 250 kW system would generate 300,000 kWh per year. An electric car will go at least 3 miles per kWh. An acre of solar modules could drive electric vehicles 900,000 miles per year.

Solar power is 36 times more efficient than biofuels at powering vehicles (even given Wisconsin solar resource). If we move to cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass solar power is 12 times better.

Solar power has other benefits, such as: solar power does not require land – roof tops are fine, solar module conversion efficiencies are being raised significantly (so less area would be needed per unit of energy produced), and electric cars and their batteries are in their infancy with efficiency gains remaining.

Meanwhile, biofuel crops must be harvested, transported and processed into the biofuel and sold to customers at biofuel stations. While solar power can go directly into a car’s battery with no moving parts.

Agriculture also means fertilization, tilling, soil loss, and irrigation. While solar power systems require very little maintenance and have a 30 to 40 year expected life.

Why the heck are we even pursuing biofuels???]]> Tue, 29 Apr 2008 23:38:05 -0400
Good agricultural land produces 5 dry tons of biomass an acre per year, each dry ton can produce roughly 100 gallons of fuel per ton and if we assume cars can get 50 miles per gallon, than each acre of land could produce enough fuel to drive a car 25,000 miles per year.

About 250 kilowatts (kW) of solar electric modules would fill that same acre of land. In Wisconsin that 250 kW system would generate 300,000 kWh per year. An electric car will go at least 3 miles per kWh. An acre of solar modules could drive electric vehicles 900,000 miles per year.

Solar power is 36 times more efficient than biofuels at powering vehicles (even given Wisconsin solar resource). If we move to cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass solar power is 12 times better.

Solar power has other benefits, such as: solar power does not require land – roof tops are fine, solar module conversion efficiencies are being raised significantly (so less area would be needed per unit of energy produced), and electric cars and their batteries are in their infancy with efficiency gains remaining.

Meanwhile, biofuel crops must be harvested, transported and processed into the biofuel and sold to customers at biofuel stations. While solar power can go directly into a car’s battery with no moving parts.

Agriculture also means fertilization, tilling, soil loss, and irrigation. While solar power systems require very little maintenance and have a 30 to 40 year expected life.

Why the heck are we even pursuing biofuels???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73738-further-musings-on-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-155716 155716 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 07:42:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67253-contradictions-in-the-solar-market?source=feed#comment-122308 122308
So brighten up!]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 08:09:54 -0500
So brighten up!]]>