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Solar Power Thin-Film Developers Feel Besieged

What about Nanosolar? They have a few billion dollars in contracts for modules with efficiencies in the mid-teens. Or are they still all hype?

Could they be the game changer they have said they are?

Jigar and Jerry... what have you heard?


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Even Thin Solar Can't Weather Silicon Glut - Barron's

I run a solar electric program in a medium sized state. Last year we cofunded about 870 kW of installed systems. This month we got in about 200 kW of applications. This is before the stimulus money hits. This year may surprise the forecasters.

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

Let us assume $5/watt, annual generation of 1.4 kilowatt hours (kWhs)/watt of PV and see what price of power would be required for a PV system to pay for itself it two years.

First cost: $5/watt
Cost after incentive: $2/watt
Generation per year: 1.4 kWh
Generation over two years: 2.8 kWh

Cost of power required to payback over two years:
$2/2.8 kWh = 71 cents a kWh

Electric prices are not that high, not even in Hawaii. I currently pay about 13 cents per kWh here in the Midwest.

You can be sure that power prices are far lower in China.

PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) Holdings

Hey Aquaculture - I believe you mean ground sourced heat pumps not geothermal. Speaking as a geologist, geothermal is hot water gysers etc. Ground sourced heat pumps use the stable temperature of the earth as a heat source (winter) or sink (summer) for a heat pump.

Solar Investors, Understand Silicon Supply

Readers of Photon International Magazine and their solar guru, Michael Rogol, know that he feels the same way. Mr. Rogol, does thorough analysis suggesting that: there will not be an oversupply of silicon for at least the next few years. Many dispute his claims.

Will LDK's New Company Create Competition for First Solar?

I wonder a little why do an AMAT line in China? It is a very automated line that makes large more difficult to ship roughly 10% - 12% efficient module. The modules are the size of the garage door on a one car garage. So larbor is a small component of module cost and shipping prices to the EU or US are high.

It only really makes sense if China itself and its neighbors are going to start doing utility scale open field arrays.

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

I recently ran some numbers on Biofuels vs Solar powered electric cars for the Midwest. The future of travel is renewable electric!

Good agricultural land produces 5 dry tons of biomass an acre per year, each dry ton can produce roughly 100 gallons of fuel per ton and if we assume cars can get 50 miles per gallon, than each acre of land could produce enough fuel to drive a car 25,000 miles per year.

About 250 kilowatts (kW) of solar electric modules would fill that same acre of land. In Wisconsin that 250 kW system would generate 300,000 kWh per year. An electric car will go at least 3 miles per kWh. An acre of solar modules could drive electric vehicles 900,000 miles per year.

Solar power is 36 times more efficient than biofuels at powering vehicles (even given Wisconsin solar resource). If we move to cellulosic ethanol from switchgrass solar power is 12 times better.

Solar power has other benefits, such as: solar power does not require land – roof tops are fine, solar module conversion efficiencies are being raised significantly (so less area would be needed per unit of energy produced), and electric cars and their batteries are in their infancy with efficiency gains remaining.

Meanwhile, biofuel crops must be harvested, transported and processed into the biofuel and sold to customers at biofuel stations. While solar power can go directly into a car’s battery with no moving parts.

Agriculture also means fertilization, tilling, soil loss, and irrigation. While solar power systems require very little maintenance and have a 30 to 40 year expected life.

Why the heck are we even pursuing biofuels???

Further Musings on Solar Stocks

Great insight on FSLR. What are you thoughts on LDK?

Contradictions in the Solar Market

You should take a look at Michael Rogol's article in the February edition of Photo International (the best source for in depth information in the solar industry). Rogol (google him - he has been right before and spends much of his time in China at solar factories) writes that there is no oversupply, spot silicon prices are heading toward $500, and the profit margins in the solar industry will remain above 30% through at least 2010.

So brighten up!