liorio1

Financials Are Attractive? Insiders Say Yes

Hmmm, let's see if that theory works, I was long on Freddie and Fannie @ double digit buy ins and now my shares are worth???

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Clean and crisp news, no nonsense added, that's why I read you every day, great stuff. Thanks.

The Great Oil Deception

Your logic is simple, yet profound, which begs the question "why are prices increasing?" If we did a simple eco. 101 notion of supply=demand and price at the equilibrium and called consumption demand (not too far fetched), then price should be a lot lower, right? Of course! So let me offer a simple theory: Basic movement of oil goes from field (at a price point) to anyone willing to buy it, usually a commodity exchange for delivery at a set future date to a place to be defined. This physical asset can be bid on many times up to the actual allowable date of delivery. Whoever holds that title last will sell the asset to the refiner (who else is going to buy it in the "ordinary" course of business?), that refiner has no choice, but to pay that price because we will presume he is logical and had picked the best price or the only price. This of course gets passed on to his customers. What I hope people understand is that this is a closed system so to speak with fewer players than we think and most of them on the demand side. And why not, there is a lot more money on the demand side and no alternative product for the refiner and anyone with a modicum of logic can see this is a captive market. As such, it is subject to collusive manipulation. Now let me see, how much have demand contracts gone up and which investment houses have steered what pension and endowment funds toward this type of investment and what goverment agency says everything appears above board? I rest my case.

What’s Driving Oil Higher? It’s the Dollar, Stupid!

Its not the inflation, its the fiat currency as you point out. I agree, there are of course many factors that impact pricing, but to ignore the dollar??? Raise interest rates and lets see what happens.

The Fed is Terrified

I am starting to believe that what we need here is simplicity and then let the chips fall where there may. Potential solution? Freeze the ARMS rates and anyone else on any other type of mortgage takes it on the chin. No more interest rate drops and stop the liquidity spigot. Now no more variables for the banks to hide behind, let them unwind their positions ( most of it is hot air anyway and will not be made up in the short run). The point is, we need to get the air out of the bubble and no one is addressing that. Seems to me, JQ Public is more worried about food, gas and the price of bread than the financial sector. Looks like we are forcing a recession with a high dose of inflation onto Main St (stagflation anyone?)

The Folly in Calling a Housing Market Bottom

Homeowners were fooled into believeing that their biggest asset was also their biggest wealth producer. Wrong! Look at the long term trend, housing is slightly ahead of real inflation as it should be and nothing more. It is not a stock nor a tradable asset as others have used it and now suffering for it. A lot of charletans have told a lot of empty heads to buy and flip. Well, looks like some have made loads of money and others are now holding a bag of poop!

Visa's IPO Fueled by International Growth and U.S. Shift to Electronic Payments

I got a small allocation and did well on day 1, time will tell for the remainder. Investment decision b/o M/A model, risk obviously in the litigation element. Will stay long for now, but think decision is fairly sound, until more info becomes available.

Paulson's Plan: Too Late in the Boondoggle

Mortgage brokers, by their nature, are peddlers and not risk assessors. To blame them for this credit debacle is like blaming real estate brokers for the housing crisis. All those involved in risk assessment from step 1 of loan origination were lax because they thought they were passing on the risk in one form or another. At some point, someone had to realize that housing is finite and the house of cards had to fall, so who got out first?
As an aside, it makes me shudder to see banks categorized as growth companies, there has never been any real growth other than through consolidation, which is dubious and these shenigans. Banks hold 2 types of assets, cash and promises, the latter in great disrepair!

Bernanke's Plan Could Work

Community/Regional banks will probably go along with this notion as they have roots in their community and that is where their bread and butter is in the long run. On the other hand, "big banks", by their nature, probably will not unless there is a legal directive to do so by the Fed or state regulator. Several reasons for this: bureaucratic inertia, complexity of the portfolio (eg what has already been reserved for - done only on a category basis) and greed (stupidity?) - A monumental bailout, which is already underway with lower interest rates set by the Fed, who else besides the banks are benefitting from them? The sub-prime borrowers? Check the refi fates.

The Misleading Jobless Rate

If you delve into the stats a little bit deeper, you will find that the majority of "prime age men" have been locked out of the market. Why? Check the age profiles and see for yourself, but it should come as no surprise that as companies acquire, merge or downsize they tend to cut the highest costs first. Remember, cutting staff isn't about just salaries, but all those fringe benefits attached to the employee such as retirement and health plans. They do get more expensive as the employee gets older!

It's Time For Economists To Make Way For Pragmatists

Hey, why don't you run for office? First level-headed thinking I've come across in a while! Too many talking heads, not enough knowledge or real vision to change things for the better. Most importantly, the iron constitution to make real reforms, popular or not, that is what is needed right now. Let history be the judge later.