Grumann

Nouriel Roubini, One on One: More Doom and Gloom

Whatever happens in the economy, just be sure to keep your finger on the "Sell" or "Short" trigger. If the market rolls over, and I think it will, every investor and hedge fund manager who failed to sell or short last year will not hesitate to do so. The momentum down will be huge and swift. At that point the fundamentals won't matter. Only the trend and the momentum will matter.

How Bad's the Job Market? This Bad

I agree with Thiazole. Take it back 30 or 40 years. Give us a better time frame. I also agree that it is really tough out there. That is a very dramatic change and jobs should be the #1 priority of the administration.

Goldman Upgrades Banks - But Should We Listen?

Thanks for the history and perspective. Goldman missed the big move this year in banks. Over the long term this call by them is a safe bet and will prove wise. But ... will there be a better entry point in the short term? That is the real question.

Abbott Records a 35% Reduction in Oil and Gas Usage

Okay that was an excellent observation about waste heat. Make a lot of sense and seems to be cost effective. Now, are there any investment opportunities in the area. Which public companies develop, consult or sell waste heat recovery systems?

Arena’s Lorcaserin Has Safety Edge

Here is the bottom line: Obesity is epidemic in our society and creates very serious health risks that cost the public and private sectors billions of dollars. While Lorcaserin is not a blockbuster miracle weight loss drug, it is safe, tolerable and effective in many patients. Two thirds of patients who took Lorcaserin for 1 year lost at least 5% of their body weight and over one third lost at least 10%. Science shows that this is enough to significantly improve health risk factors. It may not work for everyone, but it works well enough for some to be a successful commercial drug as a single agent. The FDA would be reckless if they did not approve it as an option for weight loss. Finally, the potential for future combinations to improve efficacy would be a potential opportunity for a partner.

Two Positive Notes for Arena Pharmaceuticals

Ruthanne, All of these obesity drug trails seem to have a "behavioral modification" component that applies to all patients. I often wonder if these vary significantly. If the Qnexa coaching is more vigorous than that in the Locaserin trails, that would explain some variance in the overall weight loss results. Did placebo patients on Qnexa lose more than placebo patients on Lorcaserin?

Arena's New Obesity Drug: Safe, But Not Too Efficacious

Link to MedPage article: medpagetoday.com/P...

Ed Sussman lost 52 pounds (17%+) and eliminated several meds for diabetes during his 1 year trail. Assuming he was on Lorcaserin and not placebo, it appears that the drug, combined with dietary counseling and very light exercise can have significant results.

Arena's Obesity Drug Not Likely to Make It

Link to MedPage article: www.medpagetoday.com/P...
Ed Sussman lost 52 pounds (17%) and eliminated several meds for diabetes during his 1 year trail. Assuming he was on Lorcaserin, it appears that the drug, combined with dietary counseling and very light exercise can have significant results.

Arena, The Aftermath

I have seen a number of comments in blogs comparing weight loss between Contrave and Lorcaserin. It's apples and oranges. The Contrave study included a strict diet and exercise program. I'm not convinced Lorcaserin will be a blockbuster, but so far it seems safe and tolerable and somewhat effective. Those are worth some patience.

Arena's Obesity Drug Not Likely to Make It

Derek, You appear to have the credentials and experience to write a more complete analysis of the prospects for Lorcaserin. This "article" is a simple opinion. You've shown your bias already, but I'd still be interested in hearing your thoughts on what might be the next steps ARNA could pursue here. With the safety issues resolved, isn't ARNA set up nicely (except for cash) to pursue more aggressive weight loss studies? And hasn't the safety issue been the primary reason they haven't yet entered into a partnership, so now that may be more likely? Isn't your declaration that Loraserin won't make it a bit premature? How about a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats)?

Arena Study Results Crucial - For Safety, Watch and Wait

Or, if you can handle the risk, you could put a portion of your position on ahead of the results with a stop loss at $3.50. I like the fact that there have been no significant health risks so far and earlier trials showed appropriate weight loss. Place your bets.

Snapshot: Apple's Cash Growth

Excellent article. Cash is king in a bad economy. I agree with the long term story and will add to my position on pullbacks. Major risk is iphone sales. Apple has to stay ahead of the curve and maintain a competitive advantage. My 16 year old was in Verizon yesterday and showed me some "cool" touch screen phones that his friends have. A deal with China is important too. Come on Apple, "get er done".

Is the End of the Cable Box Near?

Apple TV may be a clunker as viewed by tech geeks but I'm a user and average viewer and I can tell you the thing works great, is easy to use and, if Apple keeps adding content, could be a winner. Music, photos, YouTube, movies, TV shows, home videos..... it can't record but it does a lot more than other boxes.

The Outlook for Apple's iPod Business

Really good work. Thanks for the chart of unit and revenue growth. Basic information like that is often referred to but rarely provided.

Was Peter Lynch Wrong? Crocs and Other Trendy Companies

Regarding CROX: Does anyone know when insiders can buy the stock? There is probably a blackout period around the Q1 results. When it opens, it will be a tell if the insiders come back in. They made hundreds of millions last year selling. If they come back in, then I'm in. Overseas growth cannot be ignored. PS my family (especially the 80 year olds and the healthcare workers) swear by the comfort of these shoes.