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Afamiii
8 Comments
Jim Rogers Speaks Out - Where Is He Putting His Money?
Options Trader: Monday Outlook
Financials and real estate companies are at all times highly leveraged (and in this cycle even more highly leveraged than normal) such that small changes in asset value can deliver large changes in shareholder value.
The average investor (and I include large institutional investors), who might be following dozens of stocks, has very little real understanding of the value of these assets (by now it should be obvious that even the managers of the assets have less understanding of their value - certainly not within +/- 10%.) And therefore little understanding of the value of the company (certainly not within +/- 50%.)
So owners play safe and sell rather than risk permanent capital loss, whilst the average buyer also stays clear.
Giving room for the super investor who has superior knowledge and understanding of the asset to deploy (smart) capital and make a superior return.
For sure many financial institutions will not survive this cycle downturn and those (minority of) investors who do have superior understanding must be compensated for deploying capital (and expertise) in a high risk environment. smartinvestorafrica.co...
Diversification Can Be Everything
Comfort Level with Procter & Gamble on the Rise
At the time I bought it I knew nothing about stocks, DCF, EV, EBITDA and certainly didn't value it. At the time it was 100% of my portfolio (I was a young man and didn't really understand the types of risks I should be taking.)
Though it's now less than 2% of my portfolio (and to be honest it doesn't offer the type of performance that I look for now) it's better than money in the bank and I expect it will be one of those that my children will inherit. smartinvestorafrica.co...
Consumption, Cacophony and Clarity
Mismanagement and misfortune
The money supply has been increasing too rapidly for many years.
In normal times 'inflation' as defined by CPI would have increased and central planners would have had to tighten (either via interest rates or the reserve ratio.)
The misfortune (which was mistaken as fortune by people who should know better) is that CPI has remained low due to increased trade with low wage Asia. So tightening never happened. And the printing presses/credit engines rolled on.
And instead of the excess money going into CPI, it went into assets.
US Central Planners should have know better, they have economists (some of them are economists). Historically, there has been the debate amongst economists as to what inflation is. One camp defines inflation as increase in money supply faster than increase in goods and services and the too smart by far camp (and CNBC) defines it is the economy growing faster than natural capacity.
In hindsight it is obvious that more money was created but no more goods/services (other than those bought from asia) and the excess did not go into CPI but into asset prices (real estate and shares) and that the central planners were naïve in believing that it was not distorting resource allocation and that it did not matter.
So the first red flag (tightening labour markets) was removed, the second red flag (tightening asset markets i.e. soaring prices) was ignored, we are now having to deal with the next red flag (tightening natural resource markets), some would like to ignore this too and blame the speculators. Whilst they cheer lead Ben to keep printing?
So where is the US now?
It is certainly NOT collapsing, there are real people (with real skills, knowledge and experience) doing real work, utilising real capital to produce real goods and services.
All that is happening is that the economy is trying to purge the excesses (i.e. the fake people, doing fake work, selling things at fake prices, but getting real money) through a recession (recessions are as old as history, starting from Joseph the dream reader in Pharaoh’s time), they should not be feared and certainly not fought in the way that Bernanke and Greenspan have done, they are a time of belt tightening, and elimination of the excess (people and orgs who are not really contributing.)
They come as does winter and things are better in the spring.
What prevents the US (govn) doing the same (investing in the right things)?
A broken political system, which makes it difficult for leaders to make tough calls and take unpopular decisions. That is why politics really is the master science. smartinvestorafrica.co...
Consumption, Cacophony and Clarity
Commodities - Precious Metals, none precious metals, agricultural produce, timber, energy (uranium, oil, natural gas and King Coal.) Either directly (if you have skill) or by buying natural resource companies. Buy companies that have 'growing reserves' rather than depleting reserves.
Things that Americans make better than anyone else (and the chinese can't make) - technology - aircraft, machine tools, computer equip, hi tech electronic compenents.
Take a look at the US trade figures and focus on the industries where exports are rising.
Buy Asia and the middle east (the money is moving east.) Vietnam, China, India, etc.
Why
i) These economies are growing fast, they are raising productivity, making signficant business capital and infrastructure investment (25% of GDP) they have significant population.
They will i) consume more real stuff, ii) buy the stuff from America that they can't make themselves and iii) appreciate their currencies against the dollar as they get rich.
Energy (particularly nuclear,solar and wind), Technology, Asia, Agric, Metals and other real stuff.
The U.S. Dollar and the Limits of Irresponsibility
Consumer debt could not contine growing at the rate seen between 2001 and 2007. And that which cannot continue indefinately must stop - one way or the other. And indeed true to law it has.
Government debt can not continue to grow at the rate at which it has grown over the past 8 years. Some where around that corner it must stop. Don't ask me how, that would be like giving away the name and coulour of the car around the corner. But if the driver doesnot stop it (discipline) then nature will find a way.
Despite what Bernanke, Greenspan and the popular press believe about tight labour market and fast economic growth. Inflation happens when the money supply (coins, notes, account balances and debt) grows faster than the supply of goods and services. Bernanke is minting money big time, after going to wherever it hangs out, at some point it will come home, causing inflation (perhaps not immediately - as the amount of credit is currently diminishing), but at some point around that corner 5% CPI will seem like a walk in the park.
The US is lurching from financial crisis to financial crisis the smoking gun apears always to be with the fed/financial markets and the solution always apears to pour more money on the fire (with the exception of 70s, when Volker doused the fire.) And the crisis apear to be apearing closer and closer together, a sign that it is coming to a head (given the six years between 01 and 07 - I predict that the next crisis, being fuelled by the solution to this crisis will come within 3 or 4 years.)
Cramer vs. Buffett: An ETF Perspective
Any individual investor who plans (on purchase day) to hold it for more than 10 years needs help.
The choice is between having a system of rating value and buying at prices below value and selling above value OR having a system that can predict the general behaviour of buyers and sellers and the associated price increases and buying when they are likely to continue bidding up the price and selling before they bid the price down to low.
Buy and hold is a strategy sold by mutual funds and means that the manager of the fund will design the system and do the buying and selling for you, whilst you buy and hold the fun (till you die is their hope) and then go and pray (or sleep) depending on your mental disposition.
Cramer sounds a lot like Mr Market, with wild mood swings. Buffet only holds because he can't find enough to buy with the money he has. He even admitted in one of his letters a couple of years ago that he should have sold much more during the bull market of 2000.
And Alpha Romeo is right, if you can do momentum you must have a lot of time on your hands.