Afamiii's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/160482/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/164778-why-did-natural-gas-spike?source=feed#comment-703727 703727
Regardless, costs are sitting at +$6 and prices are hovering around that (for July deliveries.) Supply (though not yet inventory) is dropping. At some point supply will drop below demand and prices will higher.

Is this the rally that will take us there? Who knows? If it is we will profit, if its not then we will try again the next time.]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:29:14 -0400
Regardless, costs are sitting at +$6 and prices are hovering around that (for July deliveries.) Supply (though not yet inventory) is dropping. At some point supply will drop below demand and prices will higher.

Is this the rally that will take us there? Who knows? If it is we will profit, if its not then we will try again the next time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164601-why-natural-gas-etf-has-resumed-its-climb?source=feed#comment-702867 702867
What I can say with confidence is that Gas prices are currently below marginal cost for a majority of producers. And shutdowns will continue until prices are above $5.00 and by then there will be insufficient supply (whether or not their is an economic recovery, cold winter or hurricane Batty - of which nobody can accurately predict) at which point prices will over correct on the upside. When will this happen? Who knows, just keep your eyes on the market and you will know after it has happened.]]> Sun, 04 Oct 2009 16:51:30 -0400
What I can say with confidence is that Gas prices are currently below marginal cost for a majority of producers. And shutdowns will continue until prices are above $5.00 and by then there will be insufficient supply (whether or not their is an economic recovery, cold winter or hurricane Batty - of which nobody can accurately predict) at which point prices will over correct on the upside. When will this happen? Who knows, just keep your eyes on the market and you will know after it has happened.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/51805-austin-roberts/2475-natural-gas-is-cheap-and-volatility-is-here-to-stay?source=feed#comment-698486 698486 smartinvestorafrica.com]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:50:44 -0400 smartinvestorafrica.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156539-sentiment-data-shows-this-dip-is-a-buying-opportunity?source=feed#comment-633157 633157
The argument being bandied about in 08 that this would be the exception because it is bigger and being applied faster has always been suspect.

The argument that will come up soon: Let have another one will be even more suspect.

I for one will be surprised if a credit induced bubble (in both asset prices and the general economy) that lasted over 24 quarter will be unwound in just seven quarters.

smartinvestorafrica.com]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 12:15:46 -0400
The argument being bandied about in 08 that this would be the exception because it is bigger and being applied faster has always been suspect.

The argument that will come up soon: Let have another one will be even more suspect.

I for one will be surprised if a credit induced bubble (in both asset prices and the general economy) that lasted over 24 quarter will be unwound in just seven quarters.

smartinvestorafrica.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146358-why-crude-oil-traders-should-care-about-wheat?source=feed#comment-569992 569992
As for commodities being an asset class: At our farm here in Nigeria we used to (in my parents generation) store about a third to half of our harvest to eat and sell during the year. If we needed money or if prices went up we would increase our selling. There is no CPA who wouldn't book it as an asset? Whether or not it belongs to an 'asset class' I defer to the author. smartinvestorafrica.com
]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:22:42 -0400
As for commodities being an asset class: At our farm here in Nigeria we used to (in my parents generation) store about a third to half of our harvest to eat and sell during the year. If we needed money or if prices went up we would increase our selling. There is no CPA who wouldn't book it as an asset? Whether or not it belongs to an 'asset class' I defer to the author. smartinvestorafrica.com
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/25599?source=feed#comment-537327 537327
Unfortunately, the other politician is creating a new crisis with a stimulus package that will not stimulate and will be a drag on growth. This stimulus package will mean tighter money in the future (if Bernanke cares about long term prosperity) or higher inflation (if he doesn't) or possibly both (if he's as incompetent as his predecessor.) smartinvestorafrica.com]]> Mon, 08 Jun 2009 12:49:40 -0400
Unfortunately, the other politician is creating a new crisis with a stimulus package that will not stimulate and will be a drag on growth. This stimulus package will mean tighter money in the future (if Bernanke cares about long term prosperity) or higher inflation (if he doesn't) or possibly both (if he's as incompetent as his predecessor.) smartinvestorafrica.com]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123820-lessons-from-benjamin-graham-part-1?source=feed#comment-423441 423441 This is perhaps the other reason that the customers (of Wall Street) don't have yachts.

On Mar 12 02:02 PM Afamiii wrote:

>
> In all labour there is profit (proverbs 14:23.)
>
> It is not our investments that will make us rich they only sustain
> and multiply the wealth which emanates from our labour. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:08:25 -0400 This is perhaps the other reason that the customers (of Wall Street) don't have yachts.

On Mar 12 02:02 PM Afamiii wrote:

>
> In all labour there is profit (proverbs 14:23.)
>
> It is not our investments that will make us rich they only sustain
> and multiply the wealth which emanates from our labour. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123820-lessons-from-benjamin-graham-part-1?source=feed#comment-423434 423434
So if we must look to the future we are left only with probabilities and the probability is that over the next five years (and that is really the only practical time period to look at - whilst 10 years is the longest time period that has real meaning) there will be either inflation or deflation.

Which ever we have, I doubt if it will spare any asset class (definately not stocks, nor real estate, even bonds will be hurt by deflation as well as inflation) the real questions are which asset classes will be punished the least AND as an investor do I want to be focused on income or capital gains.

Funnily enough the answer to the investors dilema has not changed from what it would have been 24 months ago. Have a good balance between quality stocks, quality bonds, quality real estate and cash - bought at fair prices. And at the end of the day you will come out with most of your capital intact and if things don't get too bad with a reasonable gain.

In all labour there is profit (proverbs 14:23.)

It is not our investments that will make us rich they only sustain and multiply the wealth which emanates from our labour. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:02:25 -0400
So if we must look to the future we are left only with probabilities and the probability is that over the next five years (and that is really the only practical time period to look at - whilst 10 years is the longest time period that has real meaning) there will be either inflation or deflation.

Which ever we have, I doubt if it will spare any asset class (definately not stocks, nor real estate, even bonds will be hurt by deflation as well as inflation) the real questions are which asset classes will be punished the least AND as an investor do I want to be focused on income or capital gains.

Funnily enough the answer to the investors dilema has not changed from what it would have been 24 months ago. Have a good balance between quality stocks, quality bonds, quality real estate and cash - bought at fair prices. And at the end of the day you will come out with most of your capital intact and if things don't get too bad with a reasonable gain.

In all labour there is profit (proverbs 14:23.)

It is not our investments that will make us rich they only sustain and multiply the wealth which emanates from our labour. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32069-new-high-yield-bond-etf-available-from-barclays?source=feed#comment-391575 391575

On Apr 12 03:34 PM Bermuda Benny wrote:

> How do I find the yields on these new bond funds.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 04:32:57 -0500

On Apr 12 03:34 PM Bermuda Benny wrote:

> How do I find the yields on these new bond funds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapse?source=feed#comment-311492 311492
Rightly or wrongly Jeff Imeldt is paying the price of keeping them awake.


On Nov 18 12:34 AM Osterix wrote:

> James: You convinced me. I am going to short GE. Why dont you short
>
> GE? According to the Disclosure, you have no position in GE. Why
> would you do all that research and then not act on it? It was particulary
> informative when you explained how GE manipulates reserves at the
> end of each quarter to hit its guidance. I thought I knew a lot but
> that was new to me. I bet GE is not the only one who pulls that stunt.
> What a bunch of suckers these analysts are who make a big deal out
> of corporate guidances. Just another Wall Street scam to fleece the
> suckers. I can see GE hitting 10 or below. Where is AIG right now?
>
>
> To gabe b.- How can you say GE is a "well diversified company?" In
> 2007 42% of its business was in lending and 30.7% was in infrastructure
> sales which is highly dependent on sales to developing countries
> which are highly unstable as a market. That is a total of 72.7% in
> just two business categories which currently have a very high level
> of risk. You either have an unusual definition of "diversified"...
> or a very subtle sense of humor that is beyond my comprehension.]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 06:52:17 -0500
Rightly or wrongly Jeff Imeldt is paying the price of keeping them awake.


On Nov 18 12:34 AM Osterix wrote:

> James: You convinced me. I am going to short GE. Why dont you short
>
> GE? According to the Disclosure, you have no position in GE. Why
> would you do all that research and then not act on it? It was particulary
> informative when you explained how GE manipulates reserves at the
> end of each quarter to hit its guidance. I thought I knew a lot but
> that was new to me. I bet GE is not the only one who pulls that stunt.
> What a bunch of suckers these analysts are who make a big deal out
> of corporate guidances. Just another Wall Street scam to fleece the
> suckers. I can see GE hitting 10 or below. Where is AIG right now?
>
>
> To gabe b.- How can you say GE is a "well diversified company?" In
> 2007 42% of its business was in lending and 30.7% was in infrastructure
> sales which is highly dependent on sales to developing countries
> which are highly unstable as a market. That is a total of 72.7% in
> just two business categories which currently have a very high level
> of risk. You either have an unusual definition of "diversified"...
> or a very subtle sense of humor that is beyond my comprehension.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99397-jim-rogers-speaks-out-where-is-he-putting-his-money?source=feed#comment-279228 279228 GLD) and I was quite taken aback when I saw todays sell off (all of a months gains wiped out in a day.) I am now in the grip of fear, thinking about selling before I loose all my gains completly. But every grain of my fibre tells me that we are entering a period of stagnant growth and high inflation (70s revisited.) and that Gold should be a good investment. The thrill continues.]]> Fri, 10 Oct 2008 14:50:28 -0400 GLD) and I was quite taken aback when I saw todays sell off (all of a months gains wiped out in a day.) I am now in the grip of fear, thinking about selling before I loose all my gains completly. But every grain of my fibre tells me that we are entering a period of stagnant growth and high inflation (70s revisited.) and that Gold should be a good investment. The thrill continues.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84869-options-trader-monday-outlook?source=feed#comment-205215 205215
Financials and real estate companies are at all times highly leveraged (and in this cycle even more highly leveraged than normal) such that small changes in asset value can deliver large changes in shareholder value.

The average investor (and I include large institutional investors), who might be following dozens of stocks, has very little real understanding of the value of these assets (by now it should be obvious that even the managers of the assets have less understanding of their value - certainly not within +/- 10%.) And therefore little understanding of the value of the company (certainly not within +/- 50%.)

So owners play safe and sell rather than risk permanent capital loss, whilst the average buyer also stays clear.

Giving room for the super investor who has superior knowledge and understanding of the asset to deploy (smart) capital and make a superior return.

For sure many financial institutions will not survive this cycle downturn and those (minority of) investors who do have superior understanding must be compensated for deploying capital (and expertise) in a high risk environment. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Mon, 14 Jul 2008 11:52:48 -0400
Financials and real estate companies are at all times highly leveraged (and in this cycle even more highly leveraged than normal) such that small changes in asset value can deliver large changes in shareholder value.

The average investor (and I include large institutional investors), who might be following dozens of stocks, has very little real understanding of the value of these assets (by now it should be obvious that even the managers of the assets have less understanding of their value - certainly not within +/- 10%.) And therefore little understanding of the value of the company (certainly not within +/- 50%.)

So owners play safe and sell rather than risk permanent capital loss, whilst the average buyer also stays clear.

Giving room for the super investor who has superior knowledge and understanding of the asset to deploy (smart) capital and make a superior return.

For sure many financial institutions will not survive this cycle downturn and those (minority of) investors who do have superior understanding must be compensated for deploying capital (and expertise) in a high risk environment. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84141-diversification-can-be-everything?source=feed#comment-200707 200707 smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 12:25:26 -0400 smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82493-comfort-level-with-procter-gamble-on-the-rise?source=feed#comment-191807 191807
At the time I bought it I knew nothing about stocks, DCF, EV, EBITDA and certainly didn't value it. At the time it was 100% of my portfolio (I was a young man and didn't really understand the types of risks I should be taking.)

Though it's now less than 2% of my portfolio (and to be honest it doesn't offer the type of performance that I look for now) it's better than money in the bank and I expect it will be one of those that my children will inherit. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 11:35:30 -0400
At the time I bought it I knew nothing about stocks, DCF, EV, EBITDA and certainly didn't value it. At the time it was 100% of my portfolio (I was a young man and didn't really understand the types of risks I should be taking.)

Though it's now less than 2% of my portfolio (and to be honest it doesn't offer the type of performance that I look for now) it's better than money in the bank and I expect it will be one of those that my children will inherit. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81651-consumption-cacophony-and-clarity?source=feed#comment-187518 187518
Mismanagement and misfortune

The money supply has been increasing too rapidly for many years.

In normal times 'inflation' as defined by CPI would have increased and central planners would have had to tighten (either via interest rates or the reserve ratio.)

The misfortune (which was mistaken as fortune by people who should know better) is that CPI has remained low due to increased trade with low wage Asia. So tightening never happened. And the printing presses/credit engines rolled on.

And instead of the excess money going into CPI, it went into assets.

US Central Planners should have know better, they have economists (some of them are economists). Historically, there has been the debate amongst economists as to what inflation is. One camp defines inflation as increase in money supply faster than increase in goods and services and the too smart by far camp (and CNBC) defines it is the economy growing faster than natural capacity.

In hindsight it is obvious that more money was created but no more goods/services (other than those bought from asia) and the excess did not go into CPI but into asset prices (real estate and shares) and that the central planners were naïve in believing that it was not distorting resource allocation and that it did not matter.

So the first red flag (tightening labour markets) was removed, the second red flag (tightening asset markets i.e. soaring prices) was ignored, we are now having to deal with the next red flag (tightening natural resource markets), some would like to ignore this too and blame the speculators. Whilst they cheer lead Ben to keep printing?

So where is the US now?

It is certainly NOT collapsing, there are real people (with real skills, knowledge and experience) doing real work, utilising real capital to produce real goods and services.

All that is happening is that the economy is trying to purge the excesses (i.e. the fake people, doing fake work, selling things at fake prices, but getting real money) through a recession (recessions are as old as history, starting from Joseph the dream reader in Pharaoh’s time), they should not be feared and certainly not fought in the way that Bernanke and Greenspan have done, they are a time of belt tightening, and elimination of the excess (people and orgs who are not really contributing.)

They come as does winter and things are better in the spring.

What prevents the US (govn) doing the same (investing in the right things)?
A broken political system, which makes it difficult for leaders to make tough calls and take unpopular decisions. That is why politics really is the master science. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> Wed, 18 Jun 2008 07:38:15 -0400
Mismanagement and misfortune

The money supply has been increasing too rapidly for many years.

In normal times 'inflation' as defined by CPI would have increased and central planners would have had to tighten (either via interest rates or the reserve ratio.)

The misfortune (which was mistaken as fortune by people who should know better) is that CPI has remained low due to increased trade with low wage Asia. So tightening never happened. And the printing presses/credit engines rolled on.

And instead of the excess money going into CPI, it went into assets.

US Central Planners should have know better, they have economists (some of them are economists). Historically, there has been the debate amongst economists as to what inflation is. One camp defines inflation as increase in money supply faster than increase in goods and services and the too smart by far camp (and CNBC) defines it is the economy growing faster than natural capacity.

In hindsight it is obvious that more money was created but no more goods/services (other than those bought from asia) and the excess did not go into CPI but into asset prices (real estate and shares) and that the central planners were naïve in believing that it was not distorting resource allocation and that it did not matter.

So the first red flag (tightening labour markets) was removed, the second red flag (tightening asset markets i.e. soaring prices) was ignored, we are now having to deal with the next red flag (tightening natural resource markets), some would like to ignore this too and blame the speculators. Whilst they cheer lead Ben to keep printing?

So where is the US now?

It is certainly NOT collapsing, there are real people (with real skills, knowledge and experience) doing real work, utilising real capital to produce real goods and services.

All that is happening is that the economy is trying to purge the excesses (i.e. the fake people, doing fake work, selling things at fake prices, but getting real money) through a recession (recessions are as old as history, starting from Joseph the dream reader in Pharaoh’s time), they should not be feared and certainly not fought in the way that Bernanke and Greenspan have done, they are a time of belt tightening, and elimination of the excess (people and orgs who are not really contributing.)

They come as does winter and things are better in the spring.

What prevents the US (govn) doing the same (investing in the right things)?
A broken political system, which makes it difficult for leaders to make tough calls and take unpopular decisions. That is why politics really is the master science. smartinvestorafrica.co...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81651-consumption-cacophony-and-clarity?source=feed#comment-187343 187343
Commodities - Precious Metals, none precious metals, agricultural produce, timber, energy (uranium, oil, natural gas and King Coal.) Either directly (if you have skill) or by buying natural resource companies. Buy companies that have 'growing reserves' rather than depleting reserves.

Things that Americans make better than anyone else (and the chinese can't make) - technology - aircraft, machine tools, computer equip, hi tech electronic compenents.

Take a look at the US trade figures and focus on the industries where exports are rising.

Buy Asia and the middle east (the money is moving east.) Vietnam, China, India, etc.

Why
i) These economies are growing fast, they are raising productivity, making signficant business capital and infrastructure investment (25% of GDP) they have significant population.

They will i) consume more real stuff, ii) buy the stuff from America that they can't make themselves and iii) appreciate their currencies against the dollar as they get rich.

Energy (particularly nuclear,solar and wind), Technology, Asia, Agric, Metals and other real stuff.]]> Tue, 17 Jun 2008 18:19:33 -0400
Commodities - Precious Metals, none precious metals, agricultural produce, timber, energy (uranium, oil, natural gas and King Coal.) Either directly (if you have skill) or by buying natural resource companies. Buy companies that have 'growing reserves' rather than depleting reserves.

Things that Americans make better than anyone else (and the chinese can't make) - technology - aircraft, machine tools, computer equip, hi tech electronic compenents.

Take a look at the US trade figures and focus on the industries where exports are rising.

Buy Asia and the middle east (the money is moving east.) Vietnam, China, India, etc.

Why
i) These economies are growing fast, they are raising productivity, making signficant business capital and infrastructure investment (25% of GDP) they have significant population.

They will i) consume more real stuff, ii) buy the stuff from America that they can't make themselves and iii) appreciate their currencies against the dollar as they get rich.

Energy (particularly nuclear,solar and wind), Technology, Asia, Agric, Metals and other real stuff.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73118-the-u-s-dollar-and-the-limits-of-irresponsibility?source=feed#comment-154108 154108
Consumer debt could not contine growing at the rate seen between 2001 and 2007. And that which cannot continue indefinately must stop - one way or the other. And indeed true to law it has.

Government debt can not continue to grow at the rate at which it has grown over the past 8 years. Some where around that corner it must stop. Don't ask me how, that would be like giving away the name and coulour of the car around the corner. But if the driver doesnot stop it (discipline) then nature will find a way.

Despite what Bernanke, Greenspan and the popular press believe about tight labour market and fast economic growth. Inflation happens when the money supply (coins, notes, account balances and debt) grows faster than the supply of goods and services. Bernanke is minting money big time, after going to wherever it hangs out, at some point it will come home, causing inflation (perhaps not immediately - as the amount of credit is currently diminishing), but at some point around that corner 5% CPI will seem like a walk in the park.

The US is lurching from financial crisis to financial crisis the smoking gun apears always to be with the fed/financial markets and the solution always apears to pour more money on the fire (with the exception of 70s, when Volker doused the fire.) And the crisis apear to be apearing closer and closer together, a sign that it is coming to a head (given the six years between 01 and 07 - I predict that the next crisis, being fuelled by the solution to this crisis will come within 3 or 4 years.)]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 13:36:09 -0400
Consumer debt could not contine growing at the rate seen between 2001 and 2007. And that which cannot continue indefinately must stop - one way or the other. And indeed true to law it has.

Government debt can not continue to grow at the rate at which it has grown over the past 8 years. Some where around that corner it must stop. Don't ask me how, that would be like giving away the name and coulour of the car around the corner. But if the driver doesnot stop it (discipline) then nature will find a way.

Despite what Bernanke, Greenspan and the popular press believe about tight labour market and fast economic growth. Inflation happens when the money supply (coins, notes, account balances and debt) grows faster than the supply of goods and services. Bernanke is minting money big time, after going to wherever it hangs out, at some point it will come home, causing inflation (perhaps not immediately - as the amount of credit is currently diminishing), but at some point around that corner 5% CPI will seem like a walk in the park.

The US is lurching from financial crisis to financial crisis the smoking gun apears always to be with the fed/financial markets and the solution always apears to pour more money on the fire (with the exception of 70s, when Volker doused the fire.) And the crisis apear to be apearing closer and closer together, a sign that it is coming to a head (given the six years between 01 and 07 - I predict that the next crisis, being fuelled by the solution to this crisis will come within 3 or 4 years.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67223-cramer-vs-buffett-an-etf-perspective?source=feed#comment-122484 122484
Any individual investor who plans (on purchase day) to hold it for more than 10 years needs help.

The choice is between having a system of rating value and buying at prices below value and selling above value OR having a system that can predict the general behaviour of buyers and sellers and the associated price increases and buying when they are likely to continue bidding up the price and selling before they bid the price down to low.

Buy and hold is a strategy sold by mutual funds and means that the manager of the fund will design the system and do the buying and selling for you, whilst you buy and hold the fun (till you die is their hope) and then go and pray (or sleep) depending on your mental disposition.

Cramer sounds a lot like Mr Market, with wild mood swings. Buffet only holds because he can't find enough to buy with the money he has. He even admitted in one of his letters a couple of years ago that he should have sold much more during the bull market of 2000.

And Alpha Romeo is right, if you can do momentum you must have a lot of time on your hands.]]> Wed, 05 Mar 2008 12:28:38 -0500
Any individual investor who plans (on purchase day) to hold it for more than 10 years needs help.

The choice is between having a system of rating value and buying at prices below value and selling above value OR having a system that can predict the general behaviour of buyers and sellers and the associated price increases and buying when they are likely to continue bidding up the price and selling before they bid the price down to low.

Buy and hold is a strategy sold by mutual funds and means that the manager of the fund will design the system and do the buying and selling for you, whilst you buy and hold the fun (till you die is their hope) and then go and pray (or sleep) depending on your mental disposition.

Cramer sounds a lot like Mr Market, with wild mood swings. Buffet only holds because he can't find enough to buy with the money he has. He even admitted in one of his letters a couple of years ago that he should have sold much more during the bull market of 2000.

And Alpha Romeo is right, if you can do momentum you must have a lot of time on your hands.]]>