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RK

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  • In the two decades through December, the average return of all investors in U.S. stock mutual funds was an annualized 4.25% vs 8.2% for the S&P 500. That translates into a difference of $25,467 for an investment of $10,000. "The dismal truth is that over the long run, the average person is a woeful investor," writes the NYT's Jeff Sommer. [View news story]
    And the pension fund managers did much better than individual investors? I suspect not.
    Mar 10 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Further Confirmation Of Sales Tax Impact On Amazon.com And Other Matters [View article]
    Paul, You have been on this anti-Amazon crusade for a while. For what it is worth, I started to shop at target.com and walmart.com once AMZN starts to collect sales taxes. I even quit the Amazon prime program because I don't really care whether my merchandise comes in two days or five. (I may be unique that way.) For certain kind of shopping, clothing for instance, Target's website is far more pleasing to my eyes than Amazon's.
    Jan 17 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley Wealth Management (MS) loses another heavy hitter, this time John Dorsey - who managed more than $215M in client assets - moving over to Raymond James. (previous[View news story]
    $215M of AUM is not a heavy hitter. Get some perspective, SA. $2B would be bigger hitter.
    Nov 28 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed stress tests on the banks will require lenders to show they can withstand a recession in which unemployment rises more than 400 bps, GDP declines 5%, equity prices fall more than 50% (along with the VIX jumping 70%), and residential and commercial property values fall more than 20%. It sounds harsh, but it's still not as bad as what happened from 2007-09. Capital plans are due on Jan. 7. [View news story]
    Meanwhile, our Fed chairman said the mortgage lending remained too tight.
    Nov 15 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No Innovation, No Problem (For Now) [View article]
    I should also add that INTC is constantly working to extend the state of semiconductor manufacturing. Its manufacturing process has no peers. By all possible definitions of innovations, Intel would be considered innovative. Well, why has it underperformed S&P on a total return basis for the past 15 years? Chew on that.
    Nov 15 02:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: No Innovation, No Problem (For Now) [View article]
    I don't understand all the fixation on innovations. I bet most of the commentators who opine on innovations would not know one if they see one and would not know how to market it or make a buck off it. Apple by all metrics continue to make money and is even paying a dividend. Let's focus on Apple's business: profit, margin, and cash flow instead of something as nebulous as innovations.
    Nov 15 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Evolving Financial Institutions [View article]
    Very nice. Does this mean that the banking sector (XLF for instance) is not investable for the foreseeable future unless XLF begins to include the shadow banking institutions?
    Nov 9 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC: Not Dead Yet! [View article]
    Interesting perspective Michael. But I do not see HPQ and Dell in the same boat as Walmart. They don't have Walmart's reach, stability, and dominance. I am reasonably sure that Walmart will be in business 5 years from now. I am not sure about Dell's or HP's computer business.
    Nov 5 05:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PC: Not Dead Yet! [View article]
    Kill the tablet? That form factor is here to stay.

    As for the theme that PCs are not dead, well one can say that mainframes are not dead also. PCs are so commoditized that outside of Apple and Microsoft (which does not make PC hardware), margins are just not there. Why stay in a business that yields 4 or 5% margin?
    Nov 5 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Facebook: Though mobile is ramping, emerging markets monetization - another widely-held concern - remains a problem. While Facebook's North American and European ARPUs were at $3.40 and $1.37, its ARPUs for Asia and the rest of the world were a mere $0.58 and $0.47. The latter two regions accounted for 81% of Facebook's 52M Q/Q monthly user increase. Among the challenges Facebook has in these markets: users are often less valuable to marketers, many users are mobile-exclusive, and many access Facebook using feature phones that don't support all of its mobile ads. [View news story]
    The challenge of monetization non-developed world customers is common to all internet based advertising. This is not a unique problem to Facebook. Google has exactly the same problem. Developing world has less money to spend and therefore its monetization value is less. Nothing mysterious about that. Large number of users or device activations don't mean a hill of beans if they are from the developing world. The trick is to not let the developing world drag down profit margin too much.
    Oct 24 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Gets A Pass [View article]
    I don't understand why people are attracted to MSFT as a stock. It has underperformed on a total return basis against XLK (technology ETF) on short-term and long-term basis: 3 months, 1, 3, 5, 10 years (morningstar.com is my source). Windows 8 is not much more different from other MSFT OS launches in the past 10 years; why do we think it would turn MSFT into an out-performer? This is a website called Seeking Alpha; it is not called Seeking Average.
    Oct 22 04:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mentioned during Intel's Q3 earnings call (webcast): Q4 gross margin weakness has much to do with capacity adjustments rather than price cuts or mix shifts. But the company is taking "aggressive tactical actions" to lower inventory, as PC demand stays soft and OEMs prove cautious about placing orders. Also, enterprise server demand has softened, though cloud sales are strong. Intel's inventory and capex guidance suggest it isn't counting on PC demand rebounding strongly anytime soon. INTC -3.3% AH. [View news story]
    There are many SA commenters hoping Windows 8 would boost the fortunes of Microsoft and Intel in this quarter. Given the Intel guidance of no PC rebound, is the hope dashed?
    Oct 16 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Topeka's Brian White found sentiment regarding Windows 8 (MSFT) to be "overwhelmingly negative" during meetings with PC supply chain sources, with suppliers warning facilities could be idle in December. Ultrabook sentiment has also worsened, as high price tags limit sales. Given how depressed PC industry expectations have already become, a moderately enthusiastic consumer response to Windows 8 could be enough to pleasantly surprise the Street. (more[View news story]
    I can collaborate that no one in my Facebook feed has said anything about windows 8. And no one I know in my company is planning to buy a new windows laptop. One tiny data point, I know.
    Oct 15 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Insider Trading History: Interesting, In A Non-Obvious Way [View article]
    Yes I am familiar with such loan offerings. They are essentially margin loans and yes, those need not be reported to the SEC. However, for the executives' sake, I hope they don't use these loans because they are in essence borrowing money on margin. When the market tanks these loans can get called and may force the collateral shares be liquidated. Company board should definitely proscribe such risky financial undertaking even if the SEC does not prohibit it.
    Sep 26 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Insider Trading History: Interesting, In A Non-Obvious Way [View article]
    One reason for the lack of selling due to Steve Jobs is possibly the fact that his estate or heirs are not under Sec rule 144. They are no longer insider to the company and their stock sale does not need to be reported. This is just speculation on my part.
    Sep 26 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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