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55 Comments

    • Fannie and Freddie Shareholders Run for the Exit [view article]
      The common stocks of Fannie and Freddie are the "canaries in the coal mine" for a very large US Treasury problem. As long as the canaries are alive the Treasury can keep $5 trillion of these companies debt off the Treasury balance sheet.

      So, the two may be kept alive on life support just to perform that function. The next step will be some kind of equity infusion.

      Ambac and MBIA had similar charts and fell to even lower lows than Fannie and Freddie. Both stocks have tripled since reaching their lows.

      Time will tell.       Aug 19 09:08 AM
    • Share Buybacks: The Anti-Buffett [view article]
      The problem with share buybacks is that most companies then go out and issue more shares via employee stock options.
      Berkshire is one of the few companies that doesn't issue options.       Aug 14 07:31 AM
    • What's Changed on the Seeking Alpha Website? [view article]
      I greatly preferred the old format.

      Aug 12 05:48 PM
    • Changing Tides at Steak n Shake [view article]
      Last time I was in FLA I ate at a SNS and thought about it both as
      a restaurant and as an investment. As a restaurant I found the food
      tasty.

      As an investor I see the problems the company has such as competing with places like McDonalds and Burger King which offer somewhat less costly food with greater efficiency.

      And all fast food restaurants are competing with the cost of energy.       Jul 28 11:55 AM
    • Yahoo's Settlement with Icahn Puts Microsoft Takeover to Rest - For Now [view article]
      A big defeat for Icahn. Usually when an activist makes a move on a company he has to accomplish one thing to be successful: gain control.

      In the case of Yahoo, Icahn had to both get control and get Microsoft to acquire the company. In this case he was not able to do either.       Jul 21 08:18 AM
    • Just How Terrible Is Housing as an Asset Class? Roubini Weighs In [view article]
      Broadbased home ownership is very desirable. There was excess and the excess is being corrected. Like always.

      The US Gov't actually lessened the "subsidies" by reducing interest deductions on large mortgages and second homes, eliminating property tax deductions for those taxpayers in the AMT, and ending the ability to roll the entire proceeds of a sale of a home (regardless of price) to another same or higher priced home with zero tax liability.       Jul 17 09:48 PM
    • The Death of Natural Gas [view article]
      Two comments:
      1) You are right about health care. This is now the place to be.
      2) Gold, not oil/coal/gas is the commodity to be in.       Jul 17 09:37 PM
    • A Letter to Warren Buffett [view article]
      Dear Mr. Fuld

      Thanks so much for the lovely letter. Only thing is, the meeting you mention must have taken place in a dream.

      I am sitting with my pile of cash waiting for a call some Friday night or Saturday during the day from either Chairman Bernnake or Sec'y Paulson. Perhaps the call will be about Lehman. Not at $18, but at $2 per share. My lawyers won't be as careless as Mr. Dimon's.

      So, I think I'll wait a while longer. Good luck to you. If it isn't Lehman, maybe it will be Merrill or Morgan Stanley. Maybe AIG or Wachovia. I do love insurance and banking.

      Best always,

      Warren       Jul 17 09:32 PM
    • Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing [view article]
      This all makes sense. What cannot be known is where we are in the bubble. From the end of 1996 to Jan 2000 Yahoo went up 15,000%.

      When Yahoo was up 1000% it seemed to be a bubble. It rose another 15 fold. After Alan Greenspan made his famous comment on irrational exhuberance.

      From 1990 to 2000 Dell went up over 100,000%. Oil is different, but you just cannot rely on Francis Bacon to call this a top.       Jul 17 09:22 PM
    • Getting Out of Today's Bear Market [view article]
      From Jan 1997 to Aug 1998 Yahoo rose 1000%, well into bubble territory.

      By Jan 2000 Yahoo was up another 1500%. Total advance 15,000%.

      This commodity bubble can go much higher.

      Jul 11 08:08 AM
    • Fannie & Freddie: Myth vs. Reality [view article]
      FNM and FRE holders wish they were only decimated. The term means
      reduced by 10%.

      FNM is down 35%, FRE 50%.       Jul 11 07:18 AM
    • IPO Watch: Battered, Beaten and Pulped in 2008 (Except Visa) [view article]
      How about Intrepid Potash (IPI), a big winner?

      Some financial IPOs were disasters: AGNC, FSC. FSC came at $15 and is now under $10, all in the last 30 days.       Jul 07 10:19 AM
    • Crocs: Successful Brand or Victim of Cheap Imitations? [view article]
      Very good point about the value of the name brand. Kids are very
      brand savvy.       Jul 03 07:09 AM
    • FAS 157: Blackstone and Its Banker Buddies Have It Wrong [view article]
      In January 1975 Merrill Lynch started the ML Ready Assets Trust, the first money market fund. That began the systemic change that eventually led to bank deposit rate deregulation.

      Ironically, Merrill Lynch now makes it difficult for investors to access money market funds, preferring that customer balances go into their bank deposit program which pays much less.

      The current rates on the Ready Assets Trust is 2.21%, an account
      holder at Merrill with less than $250,000 gets a 0.20% rate in the Bank Deposit Program.       Jul 03 07:03 AM
    • Another Flawed Bear Stearns Autopsy [view article]
      The Vanity Fair narrative is much like the 3 part, in depth, article that ran in the Wall Street Journal. The WSJ article more clearly described the near death situation at Bear early in the week of March 9.

      The main difference in the two articles is that the WSJ reports and VF speculates. Conspiracy theories are most always make good copy.

      It is the Vanity Fair conspiracy theory that is unproven.       Jul 02 09:21 AM
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