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90 Comments

    • Wed Sep 10th 08:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Checkmate for Lehman?
      The Lehman plan announced this morning is nothing.
      Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic is a cliche'
      but this is what LEH is doing.
      Without a cash infusion this company is doomed.
      Check and one or two moves from checkmate.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 08:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Barton Biggs Talk
      Last October, as the major averages were making new all time highs,
      Barton Biggs was on TV (Fast Money, perhaps) talking about a "melt up"
      in stock prices.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ten Banks That Will Be Hurt by the Takeover of Fannie and Freddie
      This is good news for the markets, perhaps the critical piece. The common and preferreds will have some value and continue to trade.
      I am a buyer when the preferreds hit my target price.
      Currently no position, but looking at Fannie preferred S and T, the two sold at $25 within the last 12 months.
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 8th 08:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie-Freddie Fallout Will Hit Gateway Financial and Midwest Banc
      The GSE preferreds are not worthless but they are worth less than they
      were on Friday. The value of the preferreds and common will ultimately
      depend on the performance of the GSEs in the future.
      The prices on these securities may get down to the point where they are buys. They do represent 20% equity in the companies that now
      will have reinvigorated balance sheets.
      I have no position in any security of either GSE, but am watching for lower prices to buy. Maybe around 4 on the preferreds.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 7th 19:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nationalizing Fannie and Freddie: Latest Move in the Housing Crisis
      Probably the best plan. Certainly the equity should lose. The US Treasury still doesn't guarantee Fannie and Freddie debt. The taxpayers have a chance to win.
      GSE debt should rise in price and financial stocks should have a significant rally when the market opens tomorrow.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 09:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fannie and Freddie Shareholders Run for the Exit
      The common stocks of Fannie and Freddie are the "canaries in the coal mine" for a very large US Treasury problem. As long as the canaries are alive the Treasury can keep $5 trillion of these companies debt off the Treasury balance sheet.

      So, the two may be kept alive on life support just to perform that function. The next step will be some kind of equity infusion.

      Ambac and MBIA had similar charts and fell to even lower lows than Fannie and Freddie. Both stocks have tripled since reaching their lows.

      Time will tell.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 07:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Share Buybacks: The Anti-Buffett
      The problem with share buybacks is that most companies then go out and issue more shares via employee stock options.
      Berkshire is one of the few companies that doesn't issue options.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 12th 17:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What's Changed on the Seeking Alpha Website?
      I greatly preferred the old format.

      View article »
    • Mon Jul 28th 11:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Changing Tides at Steak n Shake
      Last time I was in FLA I ate at a SNS and thought about it both as
      a restaurant and as an investment. As a restaurant I found the food
      tasty.

      As an investor I see the problems the company has such as competing with places like McDonalds and Burger King which offer somewhat less costly food with greater efficiency.

      And all fast food restaurants are competing with the cost of energy.
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 21st 08:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yahoo's Settlement with Icahn Puts Microsoft Takeover to Rest - For Now
      A big defeat for Icahn. Usually when an activist makes a move on a company he has to accomplish one thing to be successful: gain control.

      In the case of Yahoo, Icahn had to both get control and get Microsoft to acquire the company. In this case he was not able to do either.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 21:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Just How Terrible Is Housing as an Asset Class? Roubini Weighs In
      Broadbased home ownership is very desirable. There was excess and the excess is being corrected. Like always.

      The US Gov't actually lessened the "subsidies" by reducing interest deductions on large mortgages and second homes, eliminating property tax deductions for those taxpayers in the AMT, and ending the ability to roll the entire proceeds of a sale of a home (regardless of price) to another same or higher priced home with zero tax liability.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 21:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Death of Natural Gas
      Two comments:
      1) You are right about health care. This is now the place to be.
      2) Gold, not oil/coal/gas is the commodity to be in.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 21:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Letter to Warren Buffett
      Dear Mr. Fuld

      Thanks so much for the lovely letter. Only thing is, the meeting you mention must have taken place in a dream.

      I am sitting with my pile of cash waiting for a call some Friday night or Saturday during the day from either Chairman Bernnake or Sec'y Paulson. Perhaps the call will be about Lehman. Not at $18, but at $2 per share. My lawyers won't be as careless as Mr. Dimon's.

      So, I think I'll wait a while longer. Good luck to you. If it isn't Lehman, maybe it will be Merrill or Morgan Stanley. Maybe AIG or Wachovia. I do love insurance and banking.

      Best always,

      Warren
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 21:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing
      This all makes sense. What cannot be known is where we are in the bubble. From the end of 1996 to Jan 2000 Yahoo went up 15,000%.

      When Yahoo was up 1000% it seemed to be a bubble. It rose another 15 fold. After Alan Greenspan made his famous comment on irrational exhuberance.

      From 1990 to 2000 Dell went up over 100,000%. Oil is different, but you just cannot rely on Francis Bacon to call this a top.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 11th 08:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Getting Out of Today's Bear Market
      From Jan 1997 to Aug 1998 Yahoo rose 1000%, well into bubble territory.

      By Jan 2000 Yahoo was up another 1500%. Total advance 15,000%.

      This commodity bubble can go much higher.

      View article »
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