beegdawg007

Intrinsic Value Investing: Recognizing Potentially Mispriced Stocks

WOW pardner... intrinsic value sounds conservative, but they way you come up with it requires a forecast for tomorrows cash flow.
Here is what the author says... "The forecast data then becomes available for years 2009 - 2013 using our default algorithms built around analyst EPS forecasts.""

Fifty percent of the time, analyst forecasts for the next year out are in error by 100% and more. I've been at this for 30 years. There is no mathematical short cut which gives anything close to a fool proof way to invest. The safest investments are those that have a huge economic mote and which are trading below tangible book value. And even that is risky if the value of the assets decline as they did with banking. The best formula for safety right now is 1. Minimal debt. 2. Priced below "tangible" book value. 3. Highly visible earnings such as sales that are currently under contract.