mrresponsible's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/160690/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175437-case-shiller-still-predicts-massive-45-fall-from-todays-values?source=feed#comment-780591 780591

On Nov 26 08:31 AM bartpr wrote:

> you cant take a trend that developed in 89 to 97 and then superimpose
> it on the current market. there is no basis for this in economics
> or math. the only trend that is visible here is continued volatility.
> who knows where this all ends
>
> to davewmart. when all these buyers mail back their keys where will
> they then go. i bet for those who can make payments it is cheaper
> to stay than try and find the same dwelling and then lose their credit
> standing.]]> Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:23:16 -0500

On Nov 26 08:31 AM bartpr wrote:

> you cant take a trend that developed in 89 to 97 and then superimpose
> it on the current market. there is no basis for this in economics
> or math. the only trend that is visible here is continued volatility.
> who knows where this all ends
>
> to davewmart. when all these buyers mail back their keys where will
> they then go. i bet for those who can make payments it is cheaper
> to stay than try and find the same dwelling and then lose their credit
> standing.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141653-jobs-report-better-than-expected?source=feed#comment-534738 534738 globaleconomicanalysis.../

Not so rosy!]]> Sat, 06 Jun 2009 09:38:24 -0400 globaleconomicanalysis.../

Not so rosy!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139706-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-529082 529082 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:52:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140635-geithner-s-obeisance-to-chinese-officials-reveals-u-s-weakness?source=feed#comment-529016 529016 Running around the world acting like a cowboy and an emperialist isn't very sophisticated and gets you nowhere, ]]> Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:03:07 -0400 Running around the world acting like a cowboy and an emperialist isn't very sophisticated and gets you nowhere, ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137038-s-p-earnings-updated-expect-a-retest-of-march-lows?source=feed#comment-500255 500255 Tue, 12 May 2009 09:52:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136734-jobs-lost-in-april-try-jobs-gained-in-april?source=feed#comment-497479 497479 Sun, 10 May 2009 09:02:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136665-market-rally-and-the-return-of-irrational-exuberance?source=feed#comment-497476 497476 Sun, 10 May 2009 08:58:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136475-real-estate-now-is-the-time-to-buy-right-and-buy-smart?source=feed#comment-497128 497128 Sat, 09 May 2009 20:26:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133536-housing-data-a-view-from-the-bottom-of-the-cliff?source=feed#comment-481248 481248 And, I do believe that uncertainty is the next sequential step in the progress from bad news to good news. I would say we are in an uncertain market at this point in time.

It is likely that by the time the housing glut is diminished, the markets would have already gone up as we are already seeing. The IMF defines our economy as in a sychronized recession with at least 10 (including the U.S.) of the major economies of the world together in a recession. Their research shows that it will be a very difficult recession and the recovery will be weak - one can easily imagine U.S. housing modeling that theory.
]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:47:38 -0400 And, I do believe that uncertainty is the next sequential step in the progress from bad news to good news. I would say we are in an uncertain market at this point in time.

It is likely that by the time the housing glut is diminished, the markets would have already gone up as we are already seeing. The IMF defines our economy as in a sychronized recession with at least 10 (including the U.S.) of the major economies of the world together in a recession. Their research shows that it will be a very difficult recession and the recovery will be weak - one can easily imagine U.S. housing modeling that theory.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133386-s-p-case-shiller-housing-numbers?source=feed#comment-481226 481226
The fact remains that there is a glut of housing. And it is not out of love for one another that people are moving in together! In addition, housing replacements costs are going down and home ownership costs are increasing - increases of property taxes and fees do affect the affortability. All this hope could be just "dribble" but I sincerely hope it isn't.


]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 13:36:05 -0400
The fact remains that there is a glut of housing. And it is not out of love for one another that people are moving in together! In addition, housing replacements costs are going down and home ownership costs are increasing - increases of property taxes and fees do affect the affortability. All this hope could be just "dribble" but I sincerely hope it isn't.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129285-speculators-return-to-commodities-aussie-and-canadian-dollar?source=feed#comment-451672 451672 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 11:20:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128161-we-had-a-nice-run-there-but-is-the-bounce-over?source=feed#comment-442340 442340 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:41:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128186-the-microwave-society-s-answer-to-the-economy-is-half-baked?source=feed#comment-442329 442329 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:37:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128192-is-this-finally-the-bottom-part-ii?source=feed#comment-442318 442318 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:31:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128204-geithner-s-financial-reform-is-doomed-to-fail?source=feed#comment-442299 442299 ]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:20:35 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127980-a-new-kind-of-bank-stress-test?source=feed#comment-442271 442271 Fri, 27 Mar 2009 10:07:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127885-is-it-time-to-jump-back-into-the-market?source=feed#comment-441002 441002 Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:05:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125608-making-housing-affordable-will-make-investing-unaffordable?source=feed#comment-424593 424593 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 12:06:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123965-why-the-u-s-dollar-is-vulnerable-to-decline-now?source=feed#comment-412189 412189
A lower U.S. dollar in the recent past has brought higher U.S. stock markets - different now? ]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 02:46:55 -0500
A lower U.S. dollar in the recent past has brought higher U.S. stock markets - different now? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123154-housing-where-is-the-bottom?source=feed#comment-405886 405886 trendlines.ca I would recommend it as a resource.]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 11:13:37 -0500 trendlines.ca I would recommend it as a resource.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122513-reports-of-economy-s-demise-are-greatly-exaggerated?source=feed#comment-402937 402937
Wdhalgren, whoever you are - I think the gov't is attempting to juggle a place between the ravages of large debt and hyperinflation. Won't hyperinflation be moderated by temporarily bringing some of the private debt into the public realm to smooth out the curve? By the way, if you are not writing and publishing, you should consider it.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:31:01 -0500
Wdhalgren, whoever you are - I think the gov't is attempting to juggle a place between the ravages of large debt and hyperinflation. Won't hyperinflation be moderated by temporarily bringing some of the private debt into the public realm to smooth out the curve? By the way, if you are not writing and publishing, you should consider it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122555-phoenix-rising-day-1-update?source=feed#comment-402778 402778 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 09:35:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121106-the-scariest-part-of-yesterday-s-trading-no-panic-selling?source=feed#comment-393267 393267 EAD), I think I will keep my cash in a money market, the yield looks good but the price seems too risky in this kind of market. If you are a contrarian, isn't it the time to be purchasing high quality stocks gradually in good sectors such for the long term. Maybe one has to read the current pricing of risk but I would be more comfortable in FFRHX.

I appreciate your comment on the character of yesterday's market. I think the best financial advice I have ever read and I read about 120 blogs/week - back in the early 2002, Buffet was quoted as saying stocks are cheap when their P.E. ratios are 8 or below - not there yet but one can never call the bottom exactly. The market action yesterday can be interpreted as predicting a healthy future for stocks. ]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 09:12:50 -0500 EAD), I think I will keep my cash in a money market, the yield looks good but the price seems too risky in this kind of market. If you are a contrarian, isn't it the time to be purchasing high quality stocks gradually in good sectors such for the long term. Maybe one has to read the current pricing of risk but I would be more comfortable in FFRHX.

I appreciate your comment on the character of yesterday's market. I think the best financial advice I have ever read and I read about 120 blogs/week - back in the early 2002, Buffet was quoted as saying stocks are cheap when their P.E. ratios are 8 or below - not there yet but one can never call the bottom exactly. The market action yesterday can be interpreted as predicting a healthy future for stocks. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120696-the-stock-market-continues-to-heal?source=feed#comment-390396 390396 stabilization bill passed
U.S. markets above their 2008 lows and holding
ag commodities up
minerals up
libor spread better
corporate bonds up
foreclosures down
many earnings reports beating expectations
lagging up unemployment figures
china up
russia up
regional banks up
tarp money being repaid by banks
buffet buying
bad news sells ads - markets beating media news

]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 10:16:42 -0500 stabilization bill passed
U.S. markets above their 2008 lows and holding
ag commodities up
minerals up
libor spread better
corporate bonds up
foreclosures down
many earnings reports beating expectations
lagging up unemployment figures
china up
russia up
regional banks up
tarp money being repaid by banks
buffet buying
bad news sells ads - markets beating media news

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120179-glimmers-of-hope-amid-market-doom-and-gloom?source=feed#comment-385289 385289 Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 10-22 months in length. (On average, with the current official declared recession beginning December 2007,
the recession trough would likely be before September, 2009. On average, markets should bottom between April & Sept., 2009
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970. April to October, 2009.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Risk aversion
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.
Recessions are almost always preceded by:
a) a significant rise in the real funds rate (i.e., an overt tightening of monetary policy), and
b) a significant flattening of the yield curve (which typically confirms that money is tight).
Consumer expectations falling
Industrial Production falling
Interest rates peaking
Yield curve is inverted


Stock Market Recessions
Official Current Recession Declared by National Bureau of Economic Research: Beginning December 2007
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared.
Consumer Expectations reviving
Industrial production bottoming
Interest Rates falling.
Yield Curve is normal.
Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership - solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough. If it is a time when all others are fearful, maybe it is time to buy.
Broadening markets (small, mid, and large cap stocks going higher)
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP reaching the historic low range that corresponds to bottoms.
Insiders buying.
Credit flows
The VIX Volatility Index falling
Risk appetite expansion
Early Recovery
Consumer Expectation rising
Industrial Production rising
Interest Rates bottoming
Yield Curve is steep
Recovery
Consumer Expectations decling
Industrial Production is flat
Interest rates are rising
Yield curve is flattening
Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries
Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come since October 2008
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad news: Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.
]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 08:46:12 -0500 Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 10-22 months in length. (On average, with the current official declared recession beginning December 2007,
the recession trough would likely be before September, 2009. On average, markets should bottom between April & Sept., 2009
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970. April to October, 2009.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Risk aversion
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.
Recessions are almost always preceded by:
a) a significant rise in the real funds rate (i.e., an overt tightening of monetary policy), and
b) a significant flattening of the yield curve (which typically confirms that money is tight).
Consumer expectations falling
Industrial Production falling
Interest rates peaking
Yield curve is inverted


Stock Market Recessions
Official Current Recession Declared by National Bureau of Economic Research: Beginning December 2007
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared.
Consumer Expectations reviving
Industrial production bottoming
Interest Rates falling.
Yield Curve is normal.
Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership - solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough. If it is a time when all others are fearful, maybe it is time to buy.
Broadening markets (small, mid, and large cap stocks going higher)
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP reaching the historic low range that corresponds to bottoms.
Insiders buying.
Credit flows
The VIX Volatility Index falling
Risk appetite expansion
Early Recovery
Consumer Expectation rising
Industrial Production rising
Interest Rates bottoming
Yield Curve is steep
Recovery
Consumer Expectations decling
Industrial Production is flat
Interest rates are rising
Yield curve is flattening
Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries
Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come since October 2008
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad news: Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119514-the-expectations-gap-an-indicator-of-when-economy-will-improve?source=feed#comment-382272 382272 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 10:16:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/119593-reits-off-to-slow-start-in-2009?source=feed#comment-382220 382220 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 09:50:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118740-bullish-or-bearish-and-why?source=feed#comment-378401 378401 There is going to be wash-out in all big box stores - how about office supply stores?
]]> Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:45:26 -0500 There is going to be wash-out in all big box stores - how about office supply stores?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118654-exactly-how-bad-will-it-get?source=feed#comment-377727 377727 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 21:11:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118348-the-housing-bubble-isn-t-funny-anymore?source=feed#comment-375318 375318 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 09:08:25 -0500