mrresponsible

Jobs Lost in April? Try Jobs Gained in April

It always get back to: Markets are largely psychological!

We Had a Nice Run There, But Is the Bounce Over?

Bottoming is not an event, but a process! One can not recognize it in current time.

The Microwave Society's Answer to the Economy Is Half Baked

In the psychological world, our culture can be defined as compulsive. It can be seen everywhere! One thing I have noticed in leadership positions, is people have to really be secure with themselves to brainstorm and be creative. And it takes time!

Is This (Finally) the Bottom? Part II

I guess I will respond by saying that the bottom is not an event but a process. The DOW certainly isn't the only idicator. Most of the bottoming characteristics can never be identified in current time. I agree that a recovery probably doesn't have much to do with fundamentals but because of the government interventions, good or bad. Pumping money into the system seems to be the best idea around other than permitting people starving in the streets, which doesn't seem very appealing.

Geithner's Financial Reform Is Doomed to Fail

It is refreshing to see some ideas come forward. It is the American "way"! Keep it up and take it forward to the administration and your congresspersons as they seem to be open to it! The comments to your article are also worthy.

A New Kind of Bank Stress Test

I would guess that not all the rules are defined for the auction, yet. Input and discussion, such as yours will probably not be ignored by the administration to make the "deals" work. Can you imagine the work involved in packaging for the auctions? If there is money to be made, there will be offers. Maybe someone else will have a better idea if the auctions don't work.

Is it Time to Jump Back into the Market?

My Fidelity m-a-n-a-g-e-d account has essentially redistributed my 60% stocks/40% bonds/fixed account to put more of the safer (bond/fixed) funds into stocks - rather high risk method if the market keeps going down! - but rewarding if market recovers - really they are timing the market, aren't they? So, over the long haul, it will probably perform better than if I was emotionally managing the account. I also have an account at Lussenheide Captial Management, Inc. where they time it based on the 100 day NASDAQ moving average. Long-term is the key here again but reasonably satisfied.

Are We in a New Bull Market Now?

I commend you in having the strength to write this article as it might respect the fact that markets are also influenced by the psychological mood of investors around the world -- not only technical indicators. There are natural and yet-unexplained cycles in the world and one of many good books is The Mystery of 2012, Predictions, Prophecies and Possibilites.
At some point, a natural response will be that we will begin getting tired of all the negatives and I think I am beginning to see people moving beyond shock and denial and moving on to accepting which is the natural response for healing the markets to become more positive - a leading indicator. I think you are not early in writing this article if you feel it might be an indication of a beginning to the end.
Here is a summary of many writers that I am working on and I will include some of Graham's work: Thanks,
STOCK MARKET DECLINES, RECESSIONS, RECOVERIES & CHARACTERISTICS
Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 10-22 months in length. (On average, with the current official declared recession beginning December 2007, the recession trough would likely be before September, 2009. On average, markets should bottom between April & Sept., 2009
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970. April to October, 2009.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.
Recessions
Official Current Recession Declared by National Bureau of Economic Research: Beginning December 2007
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared.
Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership - solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough. If it is a time when all others are fearful, maybe it is time to buy.
Broadening markets (small, mid, and large cap stocks going higher)
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP reaching the historic low range that corresponds to bottoms.
Insiders buying.
The VIX Volatility Index falling
Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries
Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come since October 2008
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad news: Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.

So Much for 2009

STOCK MARKET DECLINES, RECESSIONS, RECOVERIES & CHARACTERISTICS
Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 10-22 months in length. (On average, with the current official declared recession beginning December 2007, the recession trough would likely be before September, 2009. On average, markets should bottom between April & Sept., 2009
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970. April to October, 2009.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.
Recessions
Official Current Recession Declared by National Bureau of Economic Research: Beginning December 2007
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared.
Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership - solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough.
If it is a time when all others are fearful, maybe it is time to buy.
Broadening markets (small, mid, and large cap stocks going higher)
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP reaching the historic low range that corresponds to bottoms.
Insiders buying.
The VIX Volatility Index falling
Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries
Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come since October 2008
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad newsCheap is a Price/Earning ratio of 8 (problem 'E' is dropping) with a Price/Book ratio of less than 1.2 (currently 1.5 S&P)
Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.

Trillions and Trillions: The National Debt and Where It Is Going

I don't think you were asking for individual stocks, ETF's, bonds, commodities, etc. I think this is some of your own information:

Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries

Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive
seizures when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility
is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come
since October 2008
Shakeout - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a
great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad news
Cheap is a Price/Earning ratio of 8 (problem 'E' is dropping) with a
Price/Book ratio of less than 1.2 (currently 1.5 S&P)
Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.

U.S. Household Sector Not as Bad Off as Commonly Believed

I think you did a good job with this article. It seems to me that this downturn will affect severely about 20% of our U.S. population, mostly the lower skilled and lower educated. But some very wealthy people have been really damaged but their standard of living won't decrease very much.

When everyone is pessimistic - be optimistic - the U.S. has a huge economy and we can absorb a rather large downturn but people are going to have to be creative and willing to learn new skills. As Greenspan defined it as "creative destruction". The problem is that so many people do not really have the capability to learn new skills - something greenspan is not aware of, obviously.

This Recession Should End in June

I agree with Vahan.

General Background Statements:

Looking in the real view mirror doesn't necessarily predict the future.
The stock market is not the economy.
Most cycle studies usually go back only to the early 1900's
but I have seen studies back to the 1700's.
Most statistics stated below go back to 1854
Most stock market cycles in recent years have been less than 4 years.
Averages are not particularily good at predicting cycles.
The stock market reaches bottom prior to the really bad news.
It is likely we are in a primary bear market that started in 2000 and could last a long time.
Some are saying this is the "lost decade" but we will have bear market rallies.
Perspective: U.S. markets are not all back to 2002 low levels yet - despite all the media bad news

Useful Statistics?

Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 22 months in length.
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.

Recessions
It is likely the U.S. Gov't will declare that a recession began in April/May 2008.
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared - not likely now.

Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership- solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900/
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough.

Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries

Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come in the past 6 weeks.
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
Oversold conditions - maybe now?
Cheap is a Price/Earning ratio of 8 (problem 'E' is dropping) with a Price/Book ratio of less than 1.2 (currently 1.5 S&P)
Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%

8 Macro Money-Making Ideas for This Market

Just returned from extensive traveling in China: Indescribable and Unsustainable: Growth and Pollution Fish can not live in 62% of the rivers, people are dying from pollution who have lived for centuries along the rivers, heart and stroke rates are skyrocketing, 700 million farmers who manually grow much of the food source - their children are moving to the urban areas in mass, fuel distribution disruptions frequently, 1.3 million people who inhabit 1/2 of the land mass as the U.S., millions of young people viewing the same websites as we do, cities growing from 800,000 to 5 million in 5 years, 1000 new cars/day on the roads, etc, etc, etc.