mrresponsible

Are We in a New Bull Market Now?

I commend you in having the strength to write this article as it might respect the fact that markets are also influenced by the psychological mood of investors around the world -- not only technical indicators. There are natural and yet-unexplained cycles in the world and one of many good books is The Mystery of 2012, Predictions, Prophecies and Possibilites.
At some point, a natural response will be that we will begin getting tired of all the negatives and I think I am beginning to see people moving beyond shock and denial and moving on to accepting which is the natural response for healing the markets to become more positive - a leading indicator. I think you are not early in writing this article if you feel it might be an indication of a beginning to the end.
Here is a summary of many writers that I am working on and I will include some of Graham's work: Thanks,
STOCK MARKET DECLINES, RECESSIONS, RECOVERIES & CHARACTERISTICS
Stock Market Declines
The U.S. stock market peak in this cycle could be defined as October 2007
On average, the U.S. stock market peak to trough is 10-22 months in length. (On average, with the current official declared recession beginning December 2007, the recession trough would likely be before September, 2009. On average, markets should bottom between April & Sept., 2009
U.S. stock market bottoming process: has been 3-8 months in length since 1970. April to October, 2009.
The total time spent in bear markets has been 31% of the last 107 years.
Since 1953 the S&P stock market index bottomed 4.1 months prior to recession trough.
Recessions
Official Current Recession Declared by National Bureau of Economic Research: Beginning December 2007
Historically, the length of recessions have been:
17 months in length since 1854
14.4 months since 1902 - Average stock market decline -24.2%
22 months since 1929
10.2 months since 1945 - Average stock market decline 34%
During a couple of bear stock markets, no recessions were ever declared.
Stock Market Recoveries
Stocks and sectors provide some leadership - solid sales and earning growth and the stocks are traded well
U.S. stock Bull markets (from trough/bottom to stock market peak) have averaged 30 months in length since 1900
There have been three long bull markets that lasted 9 years, 10 years, and 15 years 8 months
An average gain of 106% for all bull cycles
An average gain of 46% after one year from the recession trough. If it is a time when all others are fearful, maybe it is time to buy.
Broadening markets (small, mid, and large cap stocks going higher)
Margin debt as a percentage of GDP reaching the historic low range that corresponds to bottoms.
Insiders buying.
The VIX Volatility Index falling
Sequential Characteristics of Declines, Bottoms, and Recoveries
Concern - Decline of market over long period of time
Fear - Rapid acceleration in the speed of the market fall
Panic - Massive increases in volume and volatility - like convulsive seizures
when 14 of the 64 days where intraday volatility is 8%+ ... going back to 1928.
So out of 80 years, over 20% of the most volatile days have come since October 2008
Shake-out - speculators - everyone gives up - no one is saying it is a great time to buy
Capitulation - You won't know it when you see it.
The idea of capitulation could be costly as investors wait for a bus that never arrives -
best if you are a long term investor 5-10 years
Geniuses are gone
NBER declares recession is here
"Acceptance" stage of grief
Oversold conditions
Market does not go down on bad news: Trust Building/Hope
Stock market volumes are low after a bottom.
Recovery
Average 1 year return after trough/bottom = 46%
Bounces off the bottom can be dramatic.
1973-75: Stocks up 80% within a year.
1982: Stocks up 65% within two years.
1990: Stocks up 60% in next three years; up 200% by 1998.
2002: Dow up in 2003.

Two Lessons from the Last Century

"Communism does not work nor do totally free markets with self-regulation."

I think this is partly what you were partially saying despite early comments in your article. Good article.

New Sector Leaders Emerging

Maybe a more accurate picture would look at sector performance from the beginning of Friday, Oct. 10th throught Wednesday Oct. 15th. or longer