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5 Comments

    • E*Trade's Annual Shareholder Meeting Should Pressure the Shorts [view article]
      I personally expect the company to see a run up prior to the Shareholders meeting, and I am expecting two decent catalysts within the next few days.

      1. April Metrics announcement, which should be very good given the volume during the month, and

      2. CFO announcement, which is rumored to be very good.

      These catalysts could support a nice move prior to the shareholders meeting, and assuming they pump up the shareholders at that meeting, the following week could be very nice indeed for the longs.       May 09 11:12 AM
    • Why the E*Trade Shorts Have It Wrong [view article]
      dan-o said: "you didnt mention how the request for authorisation to issue new shares factors into the share price. also, how about a blog on how etrade plans to use those shares and what sort of future dilutution shareholders have in story for them. seems to me, shorts are staying short b/c they expect dilution to push them further into the money. "

      So what you are really saying, dan-o, is that shorts are remaining short because they are naive.

      Experienced and seasoned traders know that authorization does not mean issuing, and that delution is no more likely with E*Trade now than with any other company. The fact that they want the shares authorized just means they want some in the bank in case they do have a need someday, such as for example to aquire another competitor.

      There are about 95 million shares shorted last time I looked, and while I agree that some of the shorties may be that naive, I seriously doubt that all of them are.       Apr 27 11:52 AM
    • Comparative Price Shopping: Selected Banking, Mortgage and Brokerage Stocks [view article]
      This reply is in regards to User 181270. Although I doubt (s)he will see or respond to it, I am perhaps replying for the benefit of anyone else who might read his/her comments and be misled by them.

      User 181270 claims that E*Trade will experience "projected losses of 1-1.5B in the next 2-3 years". That statement is simply untrue.

      The management's "projected loss" was documented in the Q4 earnings release for 2007, and you can see it for yourself here: files.shareholder.com/...

      If you look closely, you will find that management did project $1-$1.5 billion in potential loss, but that number is cumulative and includes the $460 million loss for 2007.

      Notice page 12, where the cumulative loss is broke out by years and identified with higher and lower amounts. After last year's hit, you will see that management is really predicting the potential for another $.7 to $1 billion for the TWO years of 2008 and 2009.

      What people like User 181270 do is their subtle manipulation of the facts, turning $.7-$1 billion into $1.5 billion, and turning the next 2 years into the next 3 years. And by doing that, they catch a lot of people who don't take the time to do the research and find out (s)he is deceiving them.

      On thing is for certain that I agree with User 181270. The price has indeed been hovering in the $3-$4 range now for some time. But its not because that is a fair market value for ETFC. The main reason that it has been held so low is because of people like User 181270 who can be so effective at distributing deceptions such as this one about the future losses.       Apr 24 11:47 AM
    • E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success [view article]
      For those who want to keep going back to the numbers quoted at the conference, you need to also remember they said a RANGE, and they also stated that those numbers were CUMULATIVE and included 2007 losses. Specifically, those projections included:

      $460 million in 2007 - Already taken
      $400-$600 million in 2008
      $300-$400 million in 2009

      Link is here: files.shareholder.com/...

      So we are not looking at $1.5 billion in front of us. We are looking at CONSERVATIVE estimates of $700 million to $1 billion       Mar 06 07:56 PM
    • E*Trade Financial: Laying the Foundation for Success [view article]
      Dan Blue wrote:

      What you failed to mention is as of last year Etrades mortgage portfolio is 11.8 Billion. Etrade perdicts that they will write down 1.5 billion over the next 3 years.

      Response:

      I am going to guess that you didn't listen to the conference call, and you have been repeating that information because someone else who didn't listen to the conference call told it to you. Am I right, or am I right?

      If you HAD listened to the conference call, you would know that E*Trade DID NOT AT ALL predict a $1.5 billion loss in their present HELOC portfolio. What they said was:

      a) The BOD expects the company to show a profit in 2008.

      and

      b) for those who question that forecast, the BOD believes they used ultra conservative figures such as a POSSIBLE $1.5 billion loss.

      The BOD went on to say that they didn't at all believe that they would see $1.5 billion in losses, but had used that number simply to produce a conservative model and to satisfy the doomsdayers who might try to argue that they were unrealistic.

      In REALITY, the E*Trade HELOCs have an average credit score of 732 and are performing twice as well as most others, and if we assume that an average of 50% of failures would be recovered by equity foreclosures, to get a $1.5 billion loss, would take $3 billion in foreclosures. That is 25% of their portfolio! Ladies and gentlemen, if you think that 25% of people with an average credit score of 732 are going to fail in the next two years, then you are not talking recession, you are talking depression and armageddon.

      I really think that kind of talk is a bit overboard. Lets get back to reality, shall we? The E*Trade BOD is confident that they will generate a profit EVEN IF the country goes into a depression and they were to have to write off an almost unrealistic amount of $1.5 billion.       Mar 06 12:19 PM
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