User 161034

How to Trade in a Crisis

Fred, Your comments are well-taken, re trading the SDS. Check out the Trader Results on my website. Buying SDS when the market rallies has worked for us with this caveat: It has to be in or below its Entry Zone.
We use limit orders,not market orders, and adjust the price according to the next day's Entry Zone.

We have been inclined to just hold the GLD, again buying on dips when price is inside the Entry Zone.

GLTA

On Mar 02 12:22 PM freddyv wrote:

> Agreed. This is my basic position and it has worked well for well
> over a year now.
>
> One should be wary of all ETF's, especially the leveraged ones but
> the SDS has performed much as expected, with little of the inefficiencies
> of other leveraged, more focused Exchange Traded Funds.
>
> However it is not recommended that you hold SDS for a long period
> of time as it will deteriorate and it tends to outperform in short
> bursts of market turmoil. In short, if you have a great run with
> the SDS take your profits and wait for it to come back to a better
> price level. History tells us that even a rapidly declining market
> with additional downside potential will not move straight down but
> will consolidate and rally along the way; BUY SDS INTO THESE RALLIES!
>
>
> I also agree with holding GLD. Given the possibilty of a total financial
> meltdown growing out of Eastern Europe, holding 10% of your portfolio
> in GLD is a wise move.
>

CEFs to Weather a Continued Storm in Equities

Qniform:
You are absolutely right.
Leverage IS one of the issues we check - - - should have included that column in the chart!

Thanks for calling my attn to this. I will look more closely when attaching charts .

CEFs to Weather a Continued Storm in Equities

Rich, This just in form ING - - - they gave notice of a share repurchase program, up to 10% of outstanding common stock. Purpose is to reduce or eliminate the discount.

Others could be planning the same move to enhance share value of their CEF's.

This is what I meant by possible growth, along with the dividends.



On Jan 05 07:09 PM richandmer wrote:

> Curious why you would recommend these CEF? They have all seen their
> dividends and the stock price consistently drop over time. There
> is not a single one with a stock price higher than its IPO price.

>
>
> The only possible value is a trade. They have all dropped significantly
> and may see a bounce, but as an investment - NO.

CEFs to Weather a Continued Storm in Equities

In answer to Rich:
IPO price seems meaningless at this point. Value is in the recovery of the current discount, plus some divvys. These were meant mostly for seniors who are looking for income, plus some growth.

OldTrader: Yes, CWF has high mgnt fee, but their Income Yield as opposed to Distribution Yield, is worth noting.

Granger: Thanks, you caught the message ! All these are near their max discount to NAV, and growth should come as the discount trends back to historical norm. True, NAV could continue to shrink, which is reason for diversifying, and avoiding those with excessive leverage and/or questionable FMP assets (Funny Money Paper).

Thanks to all of you for your comments, and best wishes for success in 2009.

More Uncertainty? Try Ultra ETFs

Thanks, Old Trader.
As a further reply to Sachin,This is from Pro-Shares site:

<<< Investors in any ETF, including ProShares, should be aware of potential differences between daily net asset value (NAV) and closing price. ProShares NAVs are calculated using prices as of 4:00 PM Eastern Time, when equity markets close. Some ETFs calculate NAVs earlier in the day based on the time their benchmark prices are set (Fixed-Income ProShares NAVs are set at 3:00 PM when the bond market closes). Through October 7, 2008, ProShares traded until 4:15 PM ET, when the equity futures markets close. Beginning Wednesday, October 8, 2008, trading in ProShares ETFs on the NYSE Alternext U.S. (formerly the American Stock Exchange or Amex) will close at 4 p.m. ET rather than 4:15 p.m. ET (see separate announcement).

The closing price of any ProShares ETF, which is the recorded price of the last trade, can occur before or sometimes after the NAV calculation, and may be different from the NAV.

Investors should note that each ProShares ETF is designed to track the 4:00 P.M. value of the index underlying its benchmark. >>>




On Nov 13 10:03 PM old trader wrote:

> sachin,
>
> The bottom line is "slippage". Both SPY and SDS have many "moving
> parts", and they're not the same "moving parts'. Same is true of
> other Ultra ETFs (DIG and DUG, for example). The inverse correlation
> is pretty close, but not perfect.The same holds true on just one
> side of the trade, over a span of time, because the Ultras basically
> start at "0" each day, so if you track the S&amp;P, and it drops
> "x" over a 3 month span, SDS would NOT be up "2x" over the same period,
> but hey, they still make a decent hedge, or allow for some nice profits
> ;-)

More Uncertainty? Try Ultra ETFs

David, you comment is appreciated, and even tho it may have been made "tongue in cheek", there is a certain bit of truth in it.

However, no one has the perfect crystal ball.
All of us are playing the odds, and you are correct, they do favor the short end.

That being said, in addition to the contras, there are always stocks that rise on days that the Dow and/or S & P fall - - - and visa versa. It is those moments when investors can take dollars off the table - - - and should do so, depending on their time horizon (age).

Some of us do not have the luxury of time in which to recover, especially if we are dependent on dividends and interest payments. That is why this geezer switched strategy to trading the contras. Even after tax consequences, the resulting income is greater than what the market currently provides in divvys and those safe munis.

Best wishes, Fritz H.

On Nov 13 10:17 AM David Lentz wrote:

> But if the markets do not like uncertainty, then they should be pretty
> pleased, as it seems certain that we are all going to hell in a handbasket,
> with equities continuing lower and lower. Seems perfectly predictable
> to me. The (short) markets should be ecstatic.
>
> :-)

Royalty Trusts: Maintaining Income in a Volatile Market

Richandmer;
dividend.com/dividend-...

Was That a Bottom? Let's Get Real

jjason,
sorry you felt that link from Yahoo was misleading - - - as an author, I have no control over what Yahoo chooses to do - - - and I don't think SeekingAlpha can control those links either.

The subject of the paragraph mentioning PWE was "Income-producing stocks" - - - and the lead symbol was PWE, which might have been a hint as to how we rate it.

It is our principle not to tout stocks which we hold for clients or for our own accounts. We did not believe just mentioning PWE as a lead to the paragraph was touting. The main point of that paragraph was to present some ideas for producing income in all this turbulence.

Sorry you felt mislead.

Was That a Bottom? Let's Get Real

Sorry for those typos:
Last bullet should read:
 Inflation (based on CPI) hit 5.02% in June. Looking back 10 years, the previous high was 4.69% in Sept, 2005. We might want to read these numbers cum grano salis, keeping in mind they are prepared by the very same government that has a vested interest in keeping it low - - - there is a direct and immediate impact on CPI-based payouts and the budget deficit.

and
last paragraph should read:
We do not foresee any change in the downward trend or in volatility until sometime in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2009.

Can the Dow and S&P Last 15 Rounds?

For GeoRealist:

Most of these canroys are hedged, some better than others.
I do think that HTE and PWE hedges are some of the best, and this will protect their divvys.

Just MVHO

U.S. Dollar vs. the Law of Gravity

Euarte - - - can't say Congressman/women are dumb - - - they know how to work the system - - - look how long they have been able to retain their seats at the table with:
promises to their constituents, to be paid for from the Federal Treasury
(read: print more paper dollars)

tap the special interest groups for re-election funds;

pay-off the special interest groups with legislation favors, crop price supports, tariffs on competition, etc, etc.

It is us voters who are dumb - - - we keep sending them back to DC.

Maybe if there were a general housecleaning, with new faces, we would see an improvement. However, can't believe the CHANGE Obama is promising is what we are seeking - - - his promised CHANGE scares me because it will turn the country socialistic.

Getting Frantic? A New 3 Act Play for Current Economic Times

Galewhitaker - - you asked, "where is my lobby?"
Many years ago (showing my age here) Common Cause was started by John Gardner, to be a lobby for the 'common man" = those of us without a voice, other than our congressman.

This soon was taken over by special interest groups, like the environmentalists, and others seeing a way to push socialist agendas.

Near as I can tell the closest thing to a lobby for us "commoners" is the Libertarian Party - - - but since 3rd parties have a way of diluting strength, not building it (see what Ross Perot brought us)
I have to stand with John McCain, hoping he is more a patriot than a politician, and that the change he will bring will be common sense into the halls of Congress.

Capt Bob - - - love you name for Barack :-) He is truly a 1st class example of the ultimate politician (as opposed to patriot - - see above). But I can garden and still, will, vote.

Getting Frantic? A New 3 Act Play for Current Economic Times

Thank you, guys (and gals?) - - - Some very astute and lucid comments here. Last 3 messages carry an important message, i.e.,
we voters must take back control of the institution that is controlling us.

There has been a message widely distributed on the email circuit about the 545 elected officials in DC, whom we put there - - - so we voters need to stop complaining and change the roster.

Hate to get into politics, but that is what got us into this mess, and is our best hope of getting us out. Hope everyone will do their part, and vote in Nov.

Getting Frantic? A New 3 Act Play for Current Economic Times

I agree with you, Dink - - - maybe the reason those sheiks don't want our dollars is because their hands get dirty due to the fact that the ink is not yet dry.