puttster

Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

LOL, you just made up that definition of inventory!


On Sep 18 11:57 AM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Puttster, you obviously need help with English before you can understand
> my commentary.
>
> By DEFINITION, an "inventory" represents the quantity of a good which
> is "for sale". By definition, a privately-held asset is NOT for sale,
> unless/until the owner of that asset officially lists it on the market.
>
>
> When I go to a coin dealer and purchase a 1-oz coin, my silver is
> NOT added to global inventories. I am still waiting for ANYONE to
> provide a rational reason why ALL ETF-silver is added to inventories
> but purchases of REAL silver are not.
>
> If you (or anyone else) can cite any legal authority for the custodians
> of SLV (and others) putting a "for sale" sticker on ALL silver (supposedly)
> held in trust for its private investors, please do so.

Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

I have to say Jeff, I cannot make any sense out of your claims.

Your big claim: "there could be no possible justification for adding this (ETF) silver to global inventories. When a person buys a unit of SLV, that ounce of silver is now privately-held."

That's just goofy. What does your accusation of "now privately-held" mean? Look, if I buy the ETF SPY would you say the underlying stocks are now "privately held"? Dude, somebody owned it before, now another person owns it, what is all the ranting about?

Much ado about nothing!

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Your statement is completely the inverse of reason. "as soon as China runs out of things to BUY with its U.S. Treasuries, it will STOP buying them."

Well then, what will China do with the dollars it earns in trade surplus every year? What? What? jeez.

China Is Now in Firm Control of U.S. Debt Markets

Actually, China is accumulating treasuries because it is accumulating US dollars from a trade surplus. When you have US dollars there are two places they can end up - US goods and US financial instruments. Thus your statement, "When China runs out of things to buy with its U.S. Treasuries, it will stop accumulating them," makes no sense - when China stops buying US goods it will actually have to buy more treasuries, not less.
Nor is your use of "budget surplus" correct. Budget surpluses do not result in foreign treasury accumulations, trade surpluses do.
Basically I think you have a pretty weak understanding of how trade works and unfortunately it shows, so you should just stop it.

How Individual Investors Could Join the Geithner Plan

Your article title, "How Individual Investors Could Join the Geithner Plan," is a fraud. So, one should assume, are you.

TIP ETF: A High Dividend Stock and Inflation Hedge?

You say the good reason to buy TIP is because interest rates are going up? Worst logic I have seen today.

China Decoupling and the Bond Market's Trade of the Century

Whaa....? China may stop buying US bonds??? www whhaaatt??? My God man! What an incredible stroke of insight!!! You have finally connected the dots that thousands, maybe millions of people could not! You have exposed the emperor with no clothes! Nobel prize for genius and originality coming up!!

How do you think of this stuff!!! How???

The Inflation Time Bomb

Japan's national debt compared to their GNP is three times larger than ours. but I don't see any big inflation there or any huge interest rates or any sinking currency. To claim those are the inevitable results of government borrowing is drivel.

How the Federal Government will Lose in 2009

You don't give a shred of evidence to support your claim that "There is no way to finance its budget deficits without devaluing the dollar or causing interest rates to rise."

Why are you disbelieving the fact that your own eyes can see? Market forces strengthing the dollar and pushing iinterest rates down?

What about comparable economics, eg, Japan. Japan's debt dwarfs ours. It is something like 200% of GNP while ours is a measley 60% and after the Obama trillion will only rise to 66%. But here's a fact - the yen is a powerhouse, and its interest rate is a mere 1%.

Where are your facts? Not just more speculation, facts!

The Banker's Choice

So bank A gets gov't money and uses it to buy bank B. Now the ex-owners of bank B have the money. If they go out and buy a Ford with it, problem solved.

A Tip on TIPS

Advisors recommending TIPs always talk about the inflation protection but leave a hole where their discussion about interest rates should be.

Statements like "TIPS are anticipating no inflation for at least 7 years" is plain misleading. TIPS might be anticipating 10% inflation - and 10% interest rates, too. In which case they could easily be overpriced.

A Tip on TIPS

A year ago the "market participants" staked billions that the DJI was worth 13,000. That oil was worth $80... oops, no, $147.. oops we mean $38... How did that work out for you?


On Dec 31 04:18 AM Dr Feelgood wrote:

> Who should we believe: the writer who simply states his opinion on
> the likely course of inflation, or market participants who stake
> billions on the outcome? I prefer people who put their money where
> there mouths are, as opposed to those who simply talk. Last time
> I talked to my bank manager he told me he liked what I said but he
> can't credit my account with it.

Pros and Cons of Bond ETFs

Tips should not be pushed as a cure-all. Say inflation and interest rates go up by 5%. Yes your bond will go up by 5% for the inflation but will go down by 50% (5% x duration) because of the interest it pays. TIPS will still leave you exposed 90% to the problem. Not much of a hedge!

Understanding Government Debt: The Treasury's Indispensable Role

Bad example saying the WWII debt did not lead to inflation. Inflation was Truman's biggest hurdle after the war. The tasks of restraining consumer spending while convincing labor and businesses to hold down wage and price increases became insurmountable for him. In 1945 and 1946 he tried to control the economy through price freezes. Despite those efforts, by August inflation was at 25% and the nation was near paralysis from a wave of strikes for higher wages.

I liked the article till I got to your statistician's trick of using a 20-year infalation average to make a point. Tricks like that impune the truth so now I don't know what to believe.

China: These Trade Numbers Are Awful

I like the conversion of US deficit into Chinese. I read an article on the subject some time ago that went something like "Exports are only 5% of China GNP. Even if they lost half of that it would only mean growth falls from 12-13% to 10%. Big deal."

I don't know who is right but at least here is another opinion.