puttster

The Inflation Time Bomb

Japan's national debt compared to their GNP is three times larger than ours. but I don't see any big inflation there or any huge interest rates or any sinking currency. To claim those are the inevitable results of government borrowing is drivel.

How the Federal Government will Lose in 2009

You don't give a shred of evidence to support your claim that "There is no way to finance its budget deficits without devaluing the dollar or causing interest rates to rise."

Why are you disbelieving the fact that your own eyes can see? Market forces strengthing the dollar and pushing iinterest rates down?

What about comparable economics, eg, Japan. Japan's debt dwarfs ours. It is something like 200% of GNP while ours is a measley 60% and after the Obama trillion will only rise to 66%. But here's a fact - the yen is a powerhouse, and its interest rate is a mere 1%.

Where are your facts? Not just more speculation, facts!

Pros and Cons of Bond ETFs

Tips should not be pushed as a cure-all. Say inflation and interest rates go up by 5%. Yes your bond will go up by 5% for the inflation but will go down by 50% (5% x duration) because of the interest it pays. TIPS will still leave you exposed 90% to the problem. Not much of a hedge!

Understanding Government Debt: The Treasury's Indispensable Role

Bad example saying the WWII debt did not lead to inflation. Inflation was Truman's biggest hurdle after the war. The tasks of restraining consumer spending while convincing labor and businesses to hold down wage and price increases became insurmountable for him. In 1945 and 1946 he tried to control the economy through price freezes. Despite those efforts, by August inflation was at 25% and the nation was near paralysis from a wave of strikes for higher wages.

I liked the article till I got to your statistician's trick of using a 20-year infalation average to make a point. Tricks like that impune the truth so now I don't know what to believe.