Enough Wealth's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/161345/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177471-will-japan-default?source=feed#comment-799408 799408
For a short period it would seem OK to capitalise the interest (by borrowing even more and using some of those funds to pay interest), with the expectation (hope?) that economic recovery would either boost GDP or allow tax to be increased (or both).

Of course if the Japanese economy doesn't recover soon then debt would eventually grow to truly unsustainable levels. I just don't think the crunch will happen as soon as 2010.]]> Thu, 10 Dec 2009 06:44:43 -0500
For a short period it would seem OK to capitalise the interest (by borrowing even more and using some of those funds to pay interest), with the expectation (hope?) that economic recovery would either boost GDP or allow tax to be increased (or both).

Of course if the Japanese economy doesn't recover soon then debt would eventually grow to truly unsustainable levels. I just don't think the crunch will happen as soon as 2010.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151283-hugh-hendry-on-china-the-emperor-has-no-clothes?source=feed#comment-602327 602327
Then again, if the GFC impacts China's real economy too much (ie. the expected domestic demand isn't sufficient to keep the economy growing strongly enough the create all the new jobs required to urbanise the rural population and lift living standards) then there will be massive oversupply and a Japan-like property valuation crash.

I've no idea how China's GDP growth will turn out over the next few years. But if the current growth that is due largely to Chinese government stimulus spending trails off, things could get ugly very fast.]]> Sun, 26 Jul 2009 03:14:17 -0400
Then again, if the GFC impacts China's real economy too much (ie. the expected domestic demand isn't sufficient to keep the economy growing strongly enough the create all the new jobs required to urbanise the rural population and lift living standards) then there will be massive oversupply and a Japan-like property valuation crash.

I've no idea how China's GDP growth will turn out over the next few years. But if the current growth that is due largely to Chinese government stimulus spending trails off, things could get ugly very fast.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114302-60-minutes-on-oil-did-anyone-verify-anything?source=feed#comment-353038 353038 "WTI prices are expected to average $51 per barrel in 2009 (Crude Oil Prices), down from the $63.50 projected in last month’s Outlook."

Unfortunately the EIA projections are dependant on how good their guess is for 2009 global GDP. They had revised their previous month's forecast significantly:
"World real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow from about 4 percent in 2006 and 2007 to about 2.7 percent this year and 0.5 percent in 2009. Last month’s Outlook assumed world GDP would increase by 1.8 percent in 2009."

I'd guess that there is more downside GDP risk than upside. The EAI, however, only seem to focus on potential for growth to surprise on the upside, which suggests they are biased towards the upside for oil prices in 2009-2010

"If the world economy recovers sooner or is stronger than EIA now anticipates, oil consumption could decline at a slower rate or potentially increase instead, putting upward pressure on oil prices."

Lower (or negative) global GDP in 2009 could see production oversupply for many months, which would see spot oil prices plumb new depths. It would be a great buy for the longer term, but I'll be cautious about buying for the long term just yet.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 06:26:49 -0500 "WTI prices are expected to average $51 per barrel in 2009 (Crude Oil Prices), down from the $63.50 projected in last month’s Outlook."

Unfortunately the EIA projections are dependant on how good their guess is for 2009 global GDP. They had revised their previous month's forecast significantly:
"World real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow from about 4 percent in 2006 and 2007 to about 2.7 percent this year and 0.5 percent in 2009. Last month’s Outlook assumed world GDP would increase by 1.8 percent in 2009."

I'd guess that there is more downside GDP risk than upside. The EAI, however, only seem to focus on potential for growth to surprise on the upside, which suggests they are biased towards the upside for oil prices in 2009-2010

"If the world economy recovers sooner or is stronger than EIA now anticipates, oil consumption could decline at a slower rate or potentially increase instead, putting upward pressure on oil prices."

Lower (or negative) global GDP in 2009 could see production oversupply for many months, which would see spot oil prices plumb new depths. It would be a great buy for the longer term, but I'll be cautious about buying for the long term just yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114127-524-000-jobs-lost-in-december-the-economy-is-in-a-depression?source=feed#comment-352156 352156
On the other hand, I can't really feel too concerned if US real wages and living standards decline as a result of Chinese wages and living standards rising at the expense of the US. After all, there is a huge cap in living standards around the world, and although it would be nice if the rest of the world's population enjoyed rapid increases in living standards while the US continued to maintain or improve, it's more likely in a world of limited resources and global pollution problems for equality to be achieved by US (and other developed countries) standard of living declining while the developing and emerging economies enjoy somewhat improved standards.]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 06:52:00 -0500
On the other hand, I can't really feel too concerned if US real wages and living standards decline as a result of Chinese wages and living standards rising at the expense of the US. After all, there is a huge cap in living standards around the world, and although it would be nice if the rest of the world's population enjoyed rapid increases in living standards while the US continued to maintain or improve, it's more likely in a world of limited resources and global pollution problems for equality to be achieved by US (and other developed countries) standard of living declining while the developing and emerging economies enjoy somewhat improved standards.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67585-apple-s-iphone-2-0-bigger-than-the-personal-computer?source=feed#comment-344009 344009
Perhaps I should have been an instant convert and bought AAPL at $125? Pity it's now $85 and heading south... (I know that the whole stock market has gone down, but look at APPL vs. MSFT since the article was written)

My point about Apple products being "too expensive" was simply that while the Apple OS has been consistently better than the contemporaneous Microsoft OS, it is too expensive for the majority of consumers taste, because it comes bundled with Apple hardware. As far as I know you've never been able to order the cheapest available desktop or notebook hardware and choose to install either an Apple or Microsoft OS ;)

BTW, TCO comparisons don't mean much to home PC users or small businesses that only run a couple of basic apps (word processing, spreadsheet, accounting) and don't run a help desk etc. If you want an example of the price gap I have in mind, just look at the cheapest Apple notebook PC compared to the cheapest Dell laptop. Yes it's a comparison of apples and oranges (eg. performance, ease of use etc. isn't comparable) but my point was only that sticker shock might be an explanation for the relatively poor market share of Apple in the desktop PC space over the last couple of decades.

I'm just not convinced that the iPhone will capture as big a share of the mobile phone marketspace as the Windows PC gained in desktop space. Perhaps that's simply because I'm still getting by with the "free" 3G mobile phone that came with my $14/mo phone plan. It has a crappy keypad, miniscule screen, and ho-hum camera. It has internet access, but I never use it as it's easier to access the net with my desktop at work or at home. I've never felt a need to surf the net or watch movies on my mobile phone. Apart from the odd snap-shot with my phone, I use my digital SLR for taking photos. And I use a $200 GPS for driving - a phone-based GPS might do just as well, but would cost as much per month as buying a dedicated GPS outright.

So, on the one hand you have some consumers that just won't be interested in an iPhone-style mobile phone unless it's super-cheap (never an Apple selling point), and on the other hand they'll be phones from other players like Samsung, Nokie, RIM etc. that will eventually "get it right" and come out with a model that's as good as the current iPhone iteration.

Of course I'm probably wrong - after all, I decided not to buy any Microsoft shares when they listed in the 80's (I though they were overpriced!)]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 07:18:37 -0500
Perhaps I should have been an instant convert and bought AAPL at $125? Pity it's now $85 and heading south... (I know that the whole stock market has gone down, but look at APPL vs. MSFT since the article was written)

My point about Apple products being "too expensive" was simply that while the Apple OS has been consistently better than the contemporaneous Microsoft OS, it is too expensive for the majority of consumers taste, because it comes bundled with Apple hardware. As far as I know you've never been able to order the cheapest available desktop or notebook hardware and choose to install either an Apple or Microsoft OS ;)

BTW, TCO comparisons don't mean much to home PC users or small businesses that only run a couple of basic apps (word processing, spreadsheet, accounting) and don't run a help desk etc. If you want an example of the price gap I have in mind, just look at the cheapest Apple notebook PC compared to the cheapest Dell laptop. Yes it's a comparison of apples and oranges (eg. performance, ease of use etc. isn't comparable) but my point was only that sticker shock might be an explanation for the relatively poor market share of Apple in the desktop PC space over the last couple of decades.

I'm just not convinced that the iPhone will capture as big a share of the mobile phone marketspace as the Windows PC gained in desktop space. Perhaps that's simply because I'm still getting by with the "free" 3G mobile phone that came with my $14/mo phone plan. It has a crappy keypad, miniscule screen, and ho-hum camera. It has internet access, but I never use it as it's easier to access the net with my desktop at work or at home. I've never felt a need to surf the net or watch movies on my mobile phone. Apart from the odd snap-shot with my phone, I use my digital SLR for taking photos. And I use a $200 GPS for driving - a phone-based GPS might do just as well, but would cost as much per month as buying a dedicated GPS outright.

So, on the one hand you have some consumers that just won't be interested in an iPhone-style mobile phone unless it's super-cheap (never an Apple selling point), and on the other hand they'll be phones from other players like Samsung, Nokie, RIM etc. that will eventually "get it right" and come out with a model that's as good as the current iPhone iteration.

Of course I'm probably wrong - after all, I decided not to buy any Microsoft shares when they listed in the 80's (I though they were overpriced!)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112918-consumers-spending-less-than-justified-by-actual-income?source=feed#comment-343961 343961 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 04:39:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112590-after-fiscal-stimulus-is-applied-inflation-will-be-hard-to-avoid?source=feed#comment-341172 341172 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 06:24:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111801-america-the-broke?source=feed#comment-335428 335428
While it makes sense to compare total personal debt burden with citizen's total net worth, comparing national debt to citizen's total net worth doesn't.

But it makes a nice headline ;)]]> Mon, 22 Dec 2008 05:20:39 -0500
While it makes sense to compare total personal debt burden with citizen's total net worth, comparing national debt to citizen's total net worth doesn't.

But it makes a nice headline ;)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110256-looks-like-it-s-time-to-buy-oil?source=feed#comment-326148 326148 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 07:25:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83811-and-you-think-today-s-gas-prices-are-high?source=feed#comment-199060 199060
eg. A plot of the cost to drive 1,000 miles in a the 'average' car for the period vs. per-capita disposable income.]]> Sun, 06 Jul 2008 04:28:57 -0400
eg. A plot of the cost to drive 1,000 miles in a the 'average' car for the period vs. per-capita disposable income.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81397-the-great-oil-deception-part-two?source=feed#comment-185770 185770
If you have the data, it would be interesting to see a plot of number of exploration wells dug per GL of oil resource found, and also the average size of new production fields brought online over time.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 07:41:57 -0400
If you have the data, it would be interesting to see a plot of number of exploration wells dug per GL of oil resource found, and also the average size of new production fields brought online over time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78732-is-the-us-dollar-doomed?source=feed#comment-173406 173406
Although high inflation kills a currency over time, it's not the short-term increase in inflation due to oil prices etc. that is the biggest problem. Rather it's because the US government runs large deficits over an extended period.

Being a foreign investor or government holding USD is a bit like an investor with shares in a company that keeps issuing new shares in order to raise funds that are then spent unwisely. Eventually the shareholders will stop taking up the share issues, and will start off-loading their stock, causing the price to tank.]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 07:39:01 -0400
Although high inflation kills a currency over time, it's not the short-term increase in inflation due to oil prices etc. that is the biggest problem. Rather it's because the US government runs large deficits over an extended period.

Being a foreign investor or government holding USD is a bit like an investor with shares in a company that keeps issuing new shares in order to raise funds that are then spent unwisely. Eventually the shareholders will stop taking up the share issues, and will start off-loading their stock, causing the price to tank.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67585-apple-s-iphone-2-0-bigger-than-the-personal-computer?source=feed#comment-123411 123411
The same will probably happen with the iPhone. There's a certain percentage of the market that will pay a premium for the iPhone, but the rest will just go for a cheaper alternative that provides a *similar* product for 20%-50% lower pricing.]]> Fri, 07 Mar 2008 07:45:57 -0500
The same will probably happen with the iPhone. There's a certain percentage of the market that will pay a premium for the iPhone, but the rest will just go for a cheaper alternative that provides a *similar* product for 20%-50% lower pricing.]]>