Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

Financial Forecasters All Pointing Down

"Despite all of the economic concerns, the housing market collapse, slowly rising unemployment and historic gasoline prices consumer spending has, so far, been another long predicted catastrophe that has not happened."

GDP: 49% Small Business and Service Jobs (shrank in 2007). 21% Government (growth in 2007) 31% Megacorporations (growth in 2007).

Analaysis: Moving paper around amoungst Megacorporations or Megacorporations and big money guys offshoring does not help the 49%. The disconnect is in goverment and big business whom have not tasted the full pain as the 49% have in the last several months.

Small businesses are on there own and have been for several months. No banking help, no investment and no government help. No ATM's for there home, tightening credit. Instead, predators exist in utilities and government abound. If your part of 51%, you have personell to deal with legislative and utility problems, tax accountants, lawyers. The little guy has none of this and it drains additional productivity needed for small business to come up with creative solutions, adding to the direct financial pain and further crushing the 49%.

Now we begin to see the effects of all areas of the GDP begin to be dragged down because of inflation and credit crisis but the 49% is what is really going to drag it down.

The worst is just beginning but American's are innovators. What needs to change is our politics back to common sense. It will change because of pain.

Human nature in all nations on earth are cyclical. The U.S. has a 20 year cyclical pattern of greed by banking (Republicans) brought on by utopian-foolish legislation enactment or safeguards (Democrats) that mount up to hurt the little guy. The little guy steps up into leadership roles and has become seasoned to create or retract foolish legislation and how to run economies business or government.

Some cycles are more severe. Then there's a 100 year supercycle of this. Last one was 1908 deep recession and the net result was WWI. Next cycle was 1928, deep depression and WWII. 2008, market crash deep depression and WWIII?

Let's hope not but a lot of this is based on whether Washington supports existing and new asset classes that focuses on large scale job creation such as alternative energy or subsidies into higher ed to retrain the population for skilled jobs, does not raise taxes etc. I am negative right now because the current political climate has momentum and this takes a few years to stamp out. We're at the beginning of the 20 year new period and historically see big pain years 1-5, some common sense and 'floors' years 6-13 (probably best time to invest) and then booms years 7-20. The Mayans were as advanced mathmaticians were the first culture to document such trends as there culture was old enough to apply the trends in 20 years and then they had 500 year supercycles. That is why Mayan 'prophecies' (statistical probability) was so accurate. In fact, biblical prophecy works the exact same way, with the prophet Daniel (w/inside information from above) knew the reformation in Israel would occur and recognized by the nations in 1948. Daniel was six months off in his calculations, almost 4,000 years in advance.