Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

John Hussman: Waiting for Investor 'Capitulation'

The good news is that the U.S. has had big gains in communications technology and food output compared to the Great Depression meaning the country can recover in a few short years.

The bad news is the added crap the middle class particularly small businesses (49% GDP) will have to go through to rebuild jobs. We are getting no love or help from the banking system, investment community or government and are on our own against the predators from government or utilities. The rapid shocks of boom BUST economy are overwhelming the 49%. That is why Wall St. and Government are scratching there heads looking at total GDP and over-all market conditions while Main St. is screaming for blood.

Government had better rub peepies up there on the hill on subsidies for skilled job creation in the higher ed market and energy and RIGHT NOW. Bummer that this is an election year and interfering with creation of common sense policy until after the election (and then a quarter out from that when new people get in). For these reasons I speculate depression, no job creation floor (minus healthcare which I am in as a business and small bump in government jobs/defense spending) to cushion the freefall.

That says to me a full contraction to -20 GDP in three year cumulative or the classic definition of depression. The wild card is Washington with rampant corruption and socialist momentum of politics so I make investment decisions based upon THAT.