Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

Will October Non-Farm Payrolls Fall by 300K?

The interesting thing in the last year is that very few here beside yourself and Mike Shedlock found the beginning of the job losses as any kind of indicator. So many have forgotten what fundamentals are. I guess those will either learn or relearn the hard way. There is no upside of the job losses. I believe we will beat prior records in unemployment of every downturn in the 1900's except the Great Depression. I am not of the opinion it will be worse. I am of the opinion it will be short lived with true unemployment sits at 15% peak to trough. Washington is the wild card here on the duration but I do not anticipate depressionary levels for more then six quarters. This is one of those times I hate being right about what the data told me in 2007 of the scope of the problems. No glory losing wealth along with evereone else in the country.