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Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

Jason Rines (iThinkBig)
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  • Thinking Strategically in a Short-Term World [View article]
    I'll wait to invest, thank you. Let's see how the election is shaping up in November. Meanwhile, cash is becoming scarce and general contraction will continue to occur, at least for the foreseeable future.
    Mar 9, 2008. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has the Recession Started? [View article]
    It was a very soft 3rd and 4th quarter but would not have called it recession. However, this January I believe we did go into recession and February was the gloomiest month (not to mention worst fiscal month) in my companies 7 year history (I am in big pharma marketing).
    Mar 9, 2008. 11:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook for Oil: 2008 Thus Far and a Preview of Coming Attractions [View article]
    Good article and well laid out arguments. Bottom line, the U.S. has been using a ton more oil filling up it's strategic reserve and the burning of oil in the war on Iraq. Consumers and business ARE being impacted and the numbers show domestic demand has been tapering off. Lastly, while the ME countries may indeed be hoarding either because of dwindling supply or simple supply and demand, countries like China and India that have subsidized oil are beginning to feel the backlash of skyrocketing fuel prices. China has their own big banking issues and cannot continue indefinately to subsidize growth, meaning demand will also decline there. The wild card you mention about alternatives is interesting. I see it this way: When enough pain is felt by the middle class, they will vote out the turds in Washington mismanaging this economy. I don't expect it this election cycle however, so I do expect deep recession, even possible crash and short-term depression. But, the U.S. has a massive amount of infrastructure, bright minds and freedom of choice. I suspect in 4-5 years America will begin to build the 'Manhatten' project of alternative energy and by 2015 we will have diminished oil demand by 30%. Until then, I assume you will grow much wealthier. I don't begrduge massive windfalls from assanine decisions of our policy-makers but speculation in the financial and energy market is bankrupting the majority of the population. This in the end, will have a direct impact on you're life as well as you mentioned 'military misadventures'.
    Mar 7, 2008. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Which Direction is the Price of Oil Headed? [View article]
    To the comment made above, I agree. The price of oil is pegged to a diminished dollar and I don't see a fix until housing resets peak by the end of this year. And therefore, I am in the camp of the price of oil going up over the next year. Perhaps not to $125 as free market economics of sky high oil begin (or should I say begun?) to trickle on to other countries that buy our food and pay big increased costs of food and shipping it to them for example.

    The other factor is investment and what money is available to build alternatives. Right now investor sentiment is bad and money availability low. This will delay the process of true supply and demand economics, although right now the speculators more or less control the cost of oil at this point.
    Mar 7, 2008. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time For Economists To Make Way For Pragmatists [View article]
    We definately think alike and this to me was predicted many months ago. But I am no economist, I am just a dumb CEO whom a year ago switch market segment focus of my company to recession-proof ones. I have a dozen people and no economist, except myself. You can't tell me that the people at the top with dozens of the brightest analysts on earth couldn't see this coming.

    But they got much richer and fleeced America in the process. I blame the American consume as well, ever hear of Googling a personal financial plan?

    Yes, it will take Pragmatists and it will take true Patiots to purge our nation of turds but don't expect this anytime soon. The average American on the street has just started feeling the pain.
    Mar 7, 2008. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PPC Advertising Takes Its Toll on Google [View article]
    Bottom line: It's the economy stupid. Economists at big corporations do two things in an approaching recession. 1) Shed jobs. Did anyone else notice the 10's of thousands of layoffs at big company in every sector except for food and energy in 2007?

    2) Next comes the announcement that recession is already here. Advertising practically grinds to a halt.

    I am in two sectors of advertising, consumer health and higher education with the product being qualitative sales leads and targeted prospect lists.

    I lost most deals in the last two years for 'price' despite the fact I demonstrated solid financials of a qualitative sales lead model over a quantitative one.

    Google CPC to me is a quantitative model where the bidding costs for mainstream terms does not equate to fiscal return. Not even close! So all of those companies using Google CPC for a combo of branding and some return have dropped off the earth.

    Even in my recession resistant sectors, February was the worst month in sales in company history, but the prospects are now lining up in droves to purchase the qualitative CPA sales lead model I built. It was oh so difficult to hang on and save a little cash while my friends got rich doing practically nothing. Companies are pulling the trigger in their ad spending in Q2 & Q3 and in our companies sectors and for the qualitative model. To the victor goes the spoils and every one of my friends now begging me for a job or a loan can go and kiss my *ss.
    Mar 7, 2008. 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Two Explanations for Surging Oil Prices [View article]
    The only silver lining in this cloud is that the U.S. market will be forced to become energy independant. The shame is we'll probably see a depression first. My belief is that we have plenty of global supply for the next forty years giving us plenty of time to develop alternatives, but in between the American consumer is going to keep paying through the nose.
    Mar 7, 2008. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Malpass: Wrong on Housing, Credit, Economy [View article]
    They are not just wrong. They are using power and influence to gain massive amount of wealth by using the media to mislead consumers and investors that everything is hunky dory while liquidating positions early before the storm. To me, it's malfeasance, not simply 'wrong'. I learned about the banking SOLVENCY crisis back in late June when my bank could not increase my LOC on my business, even though management exceeded our numbers and had a five year relationship with the bank. My small business had a $110k cash shortfall in August but we did what any good business does, we got on the horn and sold our way out of it. But in the end, if good credit customers can't fund business growth, investors domestically and internationally have little confidence in the U.S. banking system and Fed and commodities/inflation through the roof, we're in for a very bumpy ride.
    Mar 7, 2008. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Households' Financial Status: Shaky [View article]
    Back in June of 2007 I told all my colleagues chance of recession was 100%. I am appalled at the Fed, the Gov and guys like Greenspan that kept saying chance of recession was 25%. Now here is my prediction based on a ton of variables: Recession this quarter and next, three quarters of slight and sluggish growth ending in Q1 of 2009, then three more quarters of a very deep recession. Recovery in 2010 but a recovery like 1980 until 1985. It appears to me the Fed is attempting to save the banks first. Rates are low enough, let the fiscally responsible survive and the central banks liquidate equity to correct itself. Fed should target inflation NOW or this recovery will take much longer. Government should expand and advertise SBA loans for small business, cut and medium business taxes, the big guys have CFO's and accountants and have plenty of loopholes. Eliminate FICA in favor of national sales tax on all luxury goods at 33%. Create jobs by allowing offshore drilling, ANWR, biodiesel (using coal liquification, NOT just soybeans) and nuclear power plants. We do all this starting now we'll be in great shape in 3-4 years. We don't do it the nation may face a depression before we recover.
    Mar 7, 2008. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment