Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

Consumer Spending Outlook Is 'Grim'

Than you for posting the research results of this survey. Such consumer surveys (in the short term) are more important then the technicals of stocks.

The Problem of Media Economics: Value Equations Have Radically Changed

Bingo. Here's a more personal story in this regard: Businesses want sales leads. That NEVER changes. But the market of 2001-2005 gave contact records that could have been yanked out of the phone book to pass as 'qualified leads'. It was tantamount to fraud. The market prices for this quantitative model was around $20 a lead.

I went the other direction as CEO of a marketing business. I demonstrated a spreadsheet in 2005 to Higher Ed sector how sales conversions with 100% true purchase intent would yield 2 1/2 times the profit of the quantitative model, even with the lead cost being triple, $60.

I proved the model but had to be patient for the market pyschology to change and a catalyst. I prepared in 2007 for the same quality model in Healthcare market. Q4 2008 market accepted the value proposition but the turmoil had middle marketing management running for personal hedges.

Now we are VERY busy already as there is no competion of marketers willing to share the risk. We get paid when our clients make profit. Imagine that, a value proposition.

Last point: If your an entrepenuar attempting to raise money you had best learn how to give a presentation in 10 minutes of how to make money for your investors. Focus on market problem, market solution, management team and competition. Know numbers of how to make profitability and presenting that rather then how your airplane flies and putting potential investors asleep.


On Jan 07 01:29 PM Good News Economist wrote:

> Scott,
>
> Great examples. This re-arranging of the value chain in media represents
> a huge opportunity for those entrepreneurs willing to invest the
> time to understand and business sense to monetize their understanding.
>
>
> For those new businesses and business folk that get it right, it
> will be nothing good news.
>
> GNE

The Dow's Lost Decade

You are dreaming! Once this new Bretton Woods is rammed through and the citizens of the US not only have to carry our debt load but that of the world we will default. Capitalism is not such and those of us in business are already curtailing our production in hours and shielding our taxable revenues for the inevitable. And this is the stuff of wars, for the U.S. is now at the point of having to decide on servicing the global debt holders through direct and indirect taxation or to serve the interests of its own people.

The time for the U.S. to be a good economic steward for the globe is indeed over! What will replace it will no doubt be worse for a short time.

Let me explain a simple fact. Unlike the Eurozone, 60 million citizens are gun owners in America. We know what to do when the King George's of the world demand taxation without representation. The U.S. must eat it's own poison pill and indeed it is. Then the historical aspects of our nation occur, the worst leadership are removed and the country moves on, albeit much poorer for a couple of decades.

On Nov 23 10:35 PM closed wrote:

> Most people sense that the financial crisis that has now been escalating
> for 15 months, and the "sudden'' collapse of the real economy, are
> only the beginning. These were just the first waves of the storm,
> but the really powerful tsunami wave is coming toward us. The catastrophe
> could still be avoided, but that would require responsible figures
> in governments and financial institutions to admit their mistakes
> and accept competent help.
>
> But here we have a problem: Those who now should be taking decisive
> measures to defend the common good are still not ready to face up
> to the origins of the crisis. The communiqué of the G-20 summit in
> Washington on Nov. 15 admitted that "risks in the financial markets
> were underestimated.'' The latest annual advisory of Germany's Council
> of Economic Advisors, the so-called Five Wise Men, speaks in nebulous
> terms of "a darkening of the entire economy'' as the main reason
> for the crisis. "The chain of failure includes many,'' declared German
> President Horst Köhler at a conference of top bankers in Frankfurt--and
> one can only agree with him.
>
> But Köhler's perhaps well-intentioned, but completely ineffective,
> appeal to the bankers who made ``a lot of money'' in recent years,
> to set up a ``Hardship Fund,'' is hardly a strategy to overcome the
> crisis, and the answer from those so addressed was just a tired smile.
> It is clear from all these statements, that the government, as well
> as the so-called experts, are still not willing or able to take the
> necessary steps to reorganize the financial system.
>
> - Derivatives: The Main Problem -
>
> In Europe, it is Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti who, as
> a government representative, has had the courage to call a spade
> a spade, when he compared the financial crisis to a video game, in
> which every time you kill one monster, another pops up. And when
> you kill all of them, along comes the super-monster, which is derivatives
> outstanding.
>
> This is exactly where the body is buried! Now panic is setting in,
> as investors in November have been massively withdrawing their deposits
> from hedge funds and financial institutions, in turn, forcing these
> to sell whatever assets they can. This generates a double feedback-loop:
> Since the depression is coming to a head, asset prices are falling--most
> of them having been bought on credit in the first place--which further
> stresses the balance sheets of banks and hedge funds, which therefore
> curtail their lending even further. These various intensifying phases
> of "deleveraging'' of so-called structured paper are the main problem.
>
>
> The volume of derivative contracts outstanding was said to be, according
> to the Bank for International Settlements, $675 trillion at the end
> of 2007; the French magazine Marianne recently gave the figure as
> $1.4 quadrillion, but it could be much more. If an attempt is now
> made to honor what these bankers themselves call "toxic waste,''
> then, on the one hand, this leads to hyperinflation, since more and
> more liquidity is pumped in to try to back up the virtual values;
> but at the same time, it brings on deflation, since the collapse
> of the real economy leads to falling prices.
>
> This is the reason for the breathtaking speed of collapse of the
> real economy worldwide--the auto sector, the steel industry, petrochemicals,
> construction, shipping, etc., etc. And it is a global phenomenon:
> The U.S.A. is plunging into depression; China's American export market
> is collapsing; the Chinese economy is falling apart; China is no
> longer buying textile machinery in Germany; shipping is collapsing,
> since in the four or five weeks that it takes a ship to go from Europe
> to Asia, conditions have dramatically changed, so that the letters
> of credit are no longer accepted, etc., etc.: a downward spiral to...!
> Until an orderly bankruptcy reorganization is carried out.
>
> - The Roosevelt Solution -
>
> Fortunately, there is an historical precedent for how the problem
> can be solved: We need a new financial architecture, in the tradition
> of Franklin D. Roosevelt's Bretton Woods System: a New Bretton Woods.
> That was the idea that motivated French President Nicolas Sarkozy
> to propose the summit meeting of the G-20 countries, and this is
> the policy that is being proposed by Tremonti on a daily basis. This
> is what Lyndon LaRouche and I have proposed for a long time--since
> the beginning of the 1990s, to be precise. We must win the Berlin
> government over to supporting this policy.
>
> We need a real New Bretton Woods conference, at which a new financial
> system is decided upon, just as Roosevelt intended in 1944; that
> is, replacing colonialism with a new, just economic and financial
> order.
>
> Second, we need a worldwide New Deal, such as Roosevelt implemented
> in the U.S.A. during the 1930s, to end the Depression through state
> credit creation.
>
> Concretely, for Germany, this means that after (!) reorganization
> by means of a New Bretton Woods system, there must be an investment
> program of about EU200 billion for the creation of full, productive
> employment, as the BüSo has demanded for years. We need to build
> the Eurasian Land-Bridge as the centerpiece for reconstruction of
> the world economy.
>
> From a technical standpoint, such a reorganization is absolutely
> no problem. The problem lies elsewhere. For the last four decades,
> the economy and morality have been completely separated from one
> another, and a unrestrained dog-eat-dog society and personal profiteering
> have taken control. On the one side, you have totally unnecessary
> luxuries, such as the recent dedication of an artificially created
> luxury island in Dubai, which was apparently planned as a refuge
> for the super-rich before the outbreak of a world financial crisis;
> at the opening festivities, the fireworks alone cost $20 million
> and 1.7 tons of lobster was consumed; on the other side, billions
> of people are threatened with starvation and brutal poverty.
>
> Pope John Paul II, in his encyclical Centesimus annus (1991), called
> it an "abuse in the sight of God and humanity, if someone directs
> his capital against the people and their work,'' and this has happened,
> without a doubt, under the now-shattered system of globalization.
> We need a new paradigm, in which the economy and morality are brought
> into harmony, and man is placed at the center of politics and economics.
>
>
> Do you really want those who neither foresaw the crisis, nor are
> ready now to come to terms with its real origins, to be left to decide
> what should happen now?
>
> I propose that you help us, the BüSo, to carry out the necessary
> mobilization of the population, so that we can implement a New Bretton
> Woods System and a new New Deal!

Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001

You got it Brewer, it's called a Tipping Point. Apple relies on outside developers for a large portion of it's digital content such as games and apps. They have shrewdly harnassed a global online collective at minimal cost. On another article here someone else pointed out that MSTF may face competition from Google on OS. Also, outsider developer strategy or what some refer as open source strategy. The trend is established and has proven successful thus far, no doubt about it. Come to think of it, IBM does a lot of this as well.

Daily Market Outlook: Early Indications Are for a Modest Rebound

Wishful thinking. Recovery will happen when Washington is fixed. That won't happen anytime soon.

Apple: Economy Is Depressed

For some economy showing extreme softness, to some this is a recession and to some this is a depression. Depends what sector you are in, hedges and cash flow position.

Overall, to me this is a recession and has been for two quarters now. Depression? Yeah it is heading that way but we just really began the nasty downward spiral trend. What we all saw is back to back market crashes at the end of each quarter.

The economy will see some short term rallying Q4 with oil easing and around election time. Then begin a slow but steady deflation to finish shaving off 20% of our GDP by 2011.

Let's see how Washington does with policy, specifically energy. More socialism for the rich in 2009 will exacerbate the pain later but here's to being hopeful that the D.C. mental dwarves are paying attention now.

The 'Melt-Up' Rally Continues

I like Apple and agree with comments that people in recession look for cheap entertainment and iPoDs and other portable music/video devices are where it's at. I remember two recessions where VCR and movie rentals went through the roof. Same with video games. Through the roof. Will people buy a lot more game systems in this economy for $500. Probably not, but $50 for hundreds of hours of entertainment playing Guitar Hero is worth scrimping on steak or taking less of drive.

Waiting for the bailout on mortgages. I'll think I'll stop paying mine too. Why bother being responsible anymore? Some captain crunch, weed and video games sounds fine to me at this point. It will take a year or more to confiscate the house but then I'll get foodstamps, housing allowance, heat, welfare check, free medical care etc. The new place will be a tad small, but that's OK, getting up at 12:00 and hanging out with friends for a few years will do wonders for my boggled mind (sarcasm off).