Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

A Dow Double in 10 years? Easy

seeking alpha management. If you want help to block this idiot ruining your site and wasting investors time then call me. 603 953 3388. I own a network and will return value for the years of wonderful and educational content.

As to my forecast I stick with the W shape event with 2nd leg down in 2011 which I have been stating here since summer of 2008.

Getting the signal yet from our creditors overseas? We're due for a pullback but don't believe it will be Dow 5000 nor this month or next.
The tbtf banks are floating on a sea of reserves. 2010 is an election year and one of importance for Senate Banking Oversight. The technicals are so unplugged from fundamentals your best watching Washington CSPAN.

Jason Rines


On Oct 07 08:09 PM myspacestocks wrote:

> this market always goes up. that's all it does, end of story.
>
> hat tip to: tinyurl.com/n854tt for the good articles

Gone Nowhere in 8 Years

One could simply sum it up that the producers of goods was not rewarded but the intermediaries were handsomely reward. That is the big imbalance that will be righted through inflation, global wage arbitrage means it will take longer this time for the US to regain sustainability.


On Sep 13 11:26 AM Laurence Hunt wrote:

> Reading some other comments more carefully, I might add that the
> current excesses of the market amount to shareholder exploitation
> by a combined troika of upper management (awarding themselves bonuses
> and raises in all circumstances), labour unions (sharing the carrion
> with managers), and governments (failing to regulate, promoting bubbles,
> and zeroing out shareholders). I think a case could be made for shareholder
> exploitation by almost everybody. This will kill the buy and hold
> investor, already a dying breed.

Credit Card Receivables: Even Moody's Thinks the Fed's 'Adverse Case' Is a Joke

Right now it is the syndication of important information that is critical to the public. They are not receiving it from the Main-Stream-Media. People like Tyler are my hero. What sweat equity are you throwing into a restoration of America? Capital starved entrepeneurs are doing the heavy lifting to syndicate the truth while people in the investor class sit on there ass and act critical?

If you want citizen powered media types like Tyler Durden to have the time and money for detailed analysis and featured reporting, open your wallet and fund him. If not, may I suggest you sit down, stay silent and smoke a cigar.

On May 12 01:30 PM truthteller wrote:

> Wow, in what parallel universe, should the investment community trust
> Moody's to assess anything? Anyone want to buy some AAA rated mortgage
> backed securities at full price?
>
> Why should anyone care, whether or not the scenarios are adverse
> enough or not? I mean these analyses are just a guess. The only
> thing that maters is when will the overall economy recover? For
> that, I will just listen to Warren Buffet and watch for an equilibrium
> in housing starts.
>
> For the most part, your articles are STILL just copying and pasting,
> someone elses work. If you are going to post an article online;
> you really should try to come up with some analysis of your own!

Credit Card Receivables: Even Moody's Thinks the Fed's 'Adverse Case' Is a Joke

Oh wow. Are you trying to say that American skilled labor market turning into chinese style peons has an adverse effect on the financial markets? Tell that to our government, they seem to have forgotten about this tiny detail for the last decade+.

Do You Believe Borrowing Leads to Prosperity? (Part 2)

The bigger question is whom forced you to click on the link and read the article? Citizen powered media as an emerging Internet innovation is beginning to replace legacy media for obvious reasons. Necessity is the mother of all invention.


On May 07 02:13 PM ArtfulDodger wrote:

> Oh yes, JQ, I found someone who writes longer paragraphs than you.
>
>
> Steve Waldman is his name, and he writes on SA. Not by much, but
> he edged you out by a couple of sentences and a few subjects.
>
> Get a load of this one! What do you think a professional editor would
> do with this beast?
>

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

People like Repirate require no defensible position. There are two takeaways of this article:

1) The real problem is a broken monetary model
2) The underlying problem is political and yes, Washington is now a Cerebus, one ugly, mutated dog with two big foolish looking heads and one smaller one (Libertarians). This party has good ideas of restoration and reform but don't realize restoration must come in stages on there all or nothing agenda. So takeaway 2 is a political problem.
3) A solution we in the investment class must be working on is putting educational materials online to the PUBLIC that is a populist message, allowing Internet users to create some of the content, we just nudge a discussion into view. Notice Washington DEMONIZING populists? Since when is a majority rule and sentiment a bad thing?!?!

In any event, many of us in the entrepenuar class are working on the technical mechanisms of citizenship problem solving and collaboration online, because what was promised by this new Administration in this regard is proving to be yet another lie. And don't tell me I didn't give Obama a chance either. I didn't vote for the man but his fiscal policies and view of monetary policy are beyond insane. He is a puppet and happy to lead America down the path of socialism. It's his ideology that government has a right to force productive people to 'shaaaaare'. His actions speak a million words, nice rhetoric doesn't fix the financial system.

Should You Follow Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves?

Just a guess as to WB's thinking on J&J and Proctor and Gamble. These companies are mixed Consumer Healthcare products and have greater exposure to consumers pulling spending back then say, a straight Pharmaceutical company selling essential Rx treatments. The writing is on the wall, we are in depression.

If Only Hope Were an Investment Strategy

Yes Pastor, there is hope. Actually mankind has lived better in the last 100 years then any time in history and will live better yet in the next 100 years. But first, those things you are familiar with in the bible will unfold. Actually, many peoples around the globe for thousands of years understood our societal evolution and grand finale to reach global consensus. With the wheat pasta comment I am trying to remind people that the nation will recover, even if hard times remind people what is important in life.


On Nov 13 03:48 PM PASTOR TOM wrote:

> IS THERE ANY HOPE FOR US LITTLE GUYS THAT ARE HARD WORKING DAY AFTER
> DAY? (LIKE JOE THE PLUMBER).
>
> WHAT IS THIS TALK OF WHEAT PASTA RATIONS?
>
> QUESTION....DOES THE STOCK MARKET UPS AND DOWNS, DOWNS, DOWNS REALY
> MATTER TO US LITTLE GUYS? OUR LIFE WILL GO ON WITH ARBY'S, CHURCH,
> AND PUBLIX. SHOULD WE KEEP OUR CASH UNDER THE MATRESS? WE NEED ENCOURAGEMENT
> AND HOPE.

If Only Hope Were an Investment Strategy

Yeah, it's called market capitulation time. Now when I see what Washington policy is at the end of Q1 it will be time to buy. If the worst possible happens and the U.S. economy entirely collapses, then I'll eat my wheat pasta rations and take a year off, helping some people in Washington pack there bags. There is a silver lining in every cloud.

Stop the Week, We Want to Get Off

Government is not going bust, at least right now. By 2011 that will be a different story and my prediction is based on geopolitical events tied into oil and this failed leadership making more bad decisions until the US citizenship fully wakes up. What did you think the $25 B loan to the automakers was for? I'll be buying some GM at the end of this month. The GM Volt should be a big winner by 2011 when they begin to mass produce it. I'll hang onto it probably until 2013 or 2014. All my thinking about everything is 5 years out before the next Bull, but I have been saying this for several months here.

$120 Oil's Struggle with the Dow Industrials

Compliments Mr. Hansen. If you note my comments since March, you'll notice about every other comment me reminding investors about the market earthquake, tsunami effect.

I feel it is a responsibility to remind the investor community that after every market shock (March - Financial, June - Oil) That the real financial pain happens 3 or so years out. I remember 1987 and my food service teacher in high school showing me this. He was a retired Air Force base commander and a fine man.

The investor community has become more aware of bubble economics but historically the comparisons of now and then seem 1970's based on charts at this point and becoming the 1930's. I hate doom & gloom but love facts and research. The best money can be made in massive booms and massive busts. It seems you can become fabulously wealthy or fabulously poor and the research becomes very critical in which camp you find yourself in.

Your correct, regression models and other comparative research is not always perfect, but they are major indicators. This economy seems like it shed about half it's excess capacity from the March crash (shock, whatever you prefer) and the we saw a tipping point on consumer spending of more permanent demand destruction.

From here it seems it will be in a slow deflation over a three year period, cumulating to depressionary conditions and then based on Washington response, perhaps a recovery occuring in 2012 and Bull by 2013. Historically, global money problems create big military misadventure so my forecast may change based on such unpredictable geopolitical side effects/events. Thank you for taking your time to educate!

Dow 30 Performance Since 7/15

America has officially entered the 'Age of Insanity'.

As American Express Goes, So Goes the Economy

PCH 101 has a valid point. It's a little like granny smith apples vs. mcintosh. My thought is this, AMEX still appears to have a larger portion of it's business on the pay as you go model, with the entire balance being paid in full in 30-60 days. I believe that is why they saw a 2% increase in defaults from 3%-5% in such a short period. It is a credit crunch and cash is drying up. The other part of there model of credit lines would probably be holding up better and my assumption (without looking at MC or Visa) is that this is the last bastion of credit the consumer can still tap into. Can anyone quantify these assumptions?

I am really curious as back in April I argued why AMEX would be a bad short term or mid-term investment. I assume they will be a great cheap buy in the next quarter. I was called a moron in April on my position but I am not interested in vindication. I intend to forever attempt to maintain a position of humility. Pride cometh before the fall and boy is this market reinforcing that truth!

I am interested if knowing if the extended credit line portion (blue is the trade name for extended credit card or something like that) is still showing growth or if it receeding. Sorry if the terminology about AMEX model (pay as you go customers vs. extended credit business cards) is off.

The Fat Lady's Not Singing Yet for the Economy

Bottom line Eva: Hiding debts in securitized packages is misleading investors. There are laws and they are being broken. Remember Enron? Enron hid large expenditures off the books to fatten the bottom line. The Wall St. sharpshooter Spitzer became a crook and hid his prostitute expenditures paid by taxpayers off the books.

Investor confidence in the U.S. financial system is destroyed on a global scale. Yes, maybe I should hurry up and expatriate before our moronic Congress passes some laws it is contemplating on taxing dual citizens with more then $2 M worth of assets!

Dave Merkel posted an article today on Countrywide and the scope of special VIP deals by legislatures and members of the judicial branch. The majority of these violators just happen to be Clinton appointees and close friends, now running the funny farm up on the Washington and control of the House.

The Dems skewer Karl Rove for not wanting to give up the name of one of our spies in wartime to not blow cover (NY Times broadcasted the informants name to the public) but yet we're seeing the biggest criminal acts of theft committed in housing and banking in global history but the Republicans are silent? Where are the Republicans when you need them?!?

Note in a socialist government there are three stages:
1) Government creates mild entitlements for votes (FDR first Pres to figure this one out, note Great Depression irony). It will come out of the rich people pockets for the good of the country!
2) Government creates many new laws to enforce tax collection, petty fines for local and state revenue etc. Government adds more entitlements (45% of our nation has some form of government subsidy while 50% pay 97% of ALL taxes). But it's still MOSTLY the rich we tax, the middle class only has a small burden to bear!
3) The rich expatriate and the poor go underground to avoid any burden. Many new laws are created meaning all citizens are lawbreakers. Middle class fights back as small businesses go under. Property is directly confiscated in violation of laws. Confiscations go to buearocrats and informants.

We are between stage 2 and accelerating fast into stage 3. History shows us either voter revolution occurs, violent revolution occurs or the nation is conquered. That is the cause and effect of socialism in 6,000 years of history.

AmEx Misses: The Bear Trap Thickens

1) Author is definite liberal tax and spend Democrat. Tax cuts work, didn't you get the memo?!? Outrageous spending by Dems and Republicans is mutually shared disaster, but tax cuts probably brightest economy salient point for Republicans.
2) Check my comments for the last year. Compare them with your own comments people such as CLH. This economic mess is a doozie. America will recover but I am not expecting the next sustained bull market (more then a year) until 2013 or after. Wish to place a friendly wager CHL? Your stock market knowledge vs. fundamentals. It would be interesting.