Jason Rines (iThinkBig)

Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders

The star power is not what many of us are analyzing here. Most of us seem to be taking a rational view of the USA's short and medium term future.


On Nov 04 02:36 PM bottoms-up wrote:

> I noticed that I got of thumbs down for coming down on the untouchable
> Sir Buffett of Omaha.
>
> I guess all of you can come down on rating agencies that may take
> his AAA rating away:
>
> www.bloomberg.com/apps...;sid=aTI6ak3w6s0Y
>
>
> Remember, sacred cows make the best burger, and I don't mean Omaha
> Steaks.. In business, if you follow anyone or anything as though
> they are a deity or rock star, you'll get what's coming to you.

Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders

Perhaps two can play the Ayn Rand game. Someone always needs to be John Gault. I don't think one could make up what is occurring in history right now. I am long America but short current US government. I do not believe WB would be in a position to state the same publically on the second line of that sentence but I would just be speculating.


On Nov 03 02:15 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Only problem with this "energy play" -- the coal pipeline -- is that
> this Admarxistration does *not* like coal. Should be buying nuclear
> or something else instead. Unless...Buffett is doing this to create
> anti-Cap & Tax leverage against the neo-Coms??? Now *that* would
> be interesting!!! Last I checked, Warren was pretty liberal. Wonder
> if he's changing stripes...perhaps his capitalist self has woken
> to the realization that the liberals and their socialist policies
> are anti-freedom and anti-capitalism??? Things are getting very interesting
> indeed.

Buffett's Big Rail Buy: What It Means for Berkshire Shareholders

HA! You beat me to the punchline John. The dollar is being devalued. Imports like oil are going to become less economical. If the USA begins a real recovery, it is highly unlikely to be before 2013 and oil will continue to rise in-between meaning trickle down inflation into everything and making rail transport that much more important. Since early 2008 I keep referring to this year for myriads of reasons for the next sustainable bull, try a search here at SA under my screen name but the net out is a tepid but sustainable bull formation that year.

Let's say the bad becomes worse based on Washington policies. People will still need to eat meaning rail assets become extremely valuable.

WB loses if the US government decides to throw the industrialists to the wolves as other Fascist or Communist governments did in the past. In that extreme case, we ALL lose. But if I am WB I sleep well at night on this deal.


On Nov 03 01:27 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

> I think Buffet is making an energy play. He has been more and more
> an energy investor in recent years. Remember his 300% plus gain over
> a couple of years with Petro China? Utilities and pipelines are part
> of the energy investment picture. BNI is part of the same strategy,
> in this case he is buying a coal "pipeline".
>
> I bought BNI in early 2005 in the 40's and got stopped out within
> a few months for a gain of about 12%. This is one case where stop
> loss risk control proved counter productive.

Should You Follow Warren Buffett’s Latest Moves?

Just a guess as to WB's thinking on J&J and Proctor and Gamble. These companies are mixed Consumer Healthcare products and have greater exposure to consumers pulling spending back then say, a straight Pharmaceutical company selling essential Rx treatments. The writing is on the wall, we are in depression.

What Can We Learn from Buffett's Recent Put Sales?

Perhaps Helpless Observers point is that if we have any influence and political capital to spend, we should strengthen our allies and assure the world we will pay off the debts. How quickly or in what form is another matter.


On Feb 02 09:13 PM bigtime99 wrote:

> What does that have to do with anything?

What Can We Learn from Buffett's Recent Put Sales?

What Washington does in the near term would impact the maximum return horizen to seven year instead of five in my opinion on WB's investments.

I have stated early on that the next Bull market to be 2013 as the U.S. goes from Efficient Market back to Save and Invest.

Washington could make the outright wrong Keneysian decisions making that forecast to 2015 or a tad longer. Right now his bets are on U.S. government where he has direct influence, so a safe position for numerous reasons.

Voters will have a revolution at the polls expunging House of Reps in 2010 and 2012 which is what they do in our nation historically.

The last two global fiscal crisis' spurred World Wars. In the nuclear age, that is the biggest risk of all. I have a feeling if it comes to that we all will have other things on our minds besides the portfolio.

Buffett's Import Certificates Plan Could Pilot the Economy to a Safe Landing

BRILLIANT :-)


On Jan 18 10:50 AM PrudentMan, CFA wrote:

> Why are pilots good in crisis and bankers and investment bankers
> not? Pilots don't go to Ivy League Schools where they are taught
> they can walk on water so they don't have to do their homework!!!

Buffett's Gamble: $40 Billion Bet on Volatility

Government is picking winners and losers. WB positions seem to mirror this reality with the ability to influence who those winners and losers will be. I would not argue against this investment strategy. The kid writing the article seems correct in his last sentence. If what is coming is worse then the Great Depression in terms of severity and length, Buffet loses. If it is worse in severity but short as I expect it will be then Buffet wins. I am strongly in the camp we'll see the formation of the next Bull market in 2013.

There is serious risk vs. reward at play here. A small but real risk is that America collectively defaults en masse on it's debts due to the current lack of solid leadership in Washington and has to restructure the entire nation rather then portions of it's economy back to Save and Invest.

Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12

That comment was directed to APPRO.


On Nov 18 12:07 PM iThinkBig wrote:

> You are the type of person that has me investing in building a very
> tall, secure fence around my property along with ammunition for me
> and my two sons. The ignorant mob will want it's vengeance and is
> too stupid to know whom to eradicate.
>
> A value proposition for AMEX to the market could be lending to small
> businesses and innovators as loans guaranteed by the U.S. government,
> not much different then the SBA but with a very talented captain
> guiding the ship.

Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12

I can't speak for SA but I am in the digital media space. Many companies use Google tracking for redundancy. For SA: Check out the product Open X. It is a tad sophisticated to learn because it does everything soup to nuts when most sites only need simplicity, but the product is wonderful and stable. Of course, being freeware is also nice.


On Nov 17 07:15 PM curbs-in wrote:

> First of all, Does anybody know why Seeking Alpha now requires two
> Google Corporation scripts to be run in your browser in order to
> post on Seeking Alpha?
>
> Both of the scripts being run by the Google Corporation on Seeking
> Alpha have been flags as unsafe by my computer security software.
>
>
> There is another script that is also being run by Seeking Alpha from
> nuconomy.com that is flagged by security protection software as a
> privacy concern. Now I have to use a computer at an Internet cafe
> to post on their computers. Crazy!
>
> Is Seeking Alpha now violating privacy of posters, or reporting back
> to Paulson, Pelosi and Frank who is posting what against them? LOL!
>
>
> Anyhow...
>
>
> MESSAGE TO WARREN:
>
> No cuts in the soup line!
>
> Don't lie on your Food Stamp application!

Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12

You are the type of person that has me investing in building a very tall, secure fence around my property along with ammunition for me and my two sons. The ignorant mob will want it's vengeance and is too stupid to know whom to eradicate.

A value proposition for AMEX to the market could be lending to small businesses and innovators as loans guaranteed by the U.S. government, not much different then the SBA but with a very talented captain guiding the ship.


On Nov 16 05:12 PM James Cullen wrote:

> Utterly vacuous.

Buffett Enters the Fray

Gramps, the taxpayer has been getting shit on for several years now. I am not an advocate of this government, just the opposite in fact. I am also not an advocate of Warren Buffet or own any BRK. But I still don't know why you would be resentful or any other person here. If you have a few million, go to a struggling local bank and structure a deal with management for preffered shares. The debt will not be too long to hit taxpayers, it will be in inflation and letting the Bush tax cuts expire in 2011. If Buffett hung onto his dough for the right time and decided to not buy SIV's which he properly identified as WMD's of finance, what is the issue Gramps? Buffett rolls his dices and takes his chances and has done so his whole life. I see a lot of resentment here for someone that made decent calls his whole life based on fundamentals. He had a good economy and country to invest in. But Buffett is not government and nor do I believe he approves of where our country is headed (otherwise, I wouldn't see him with David Walker and Peter Peterson so much). Nor if I was Buffett would I come here and defend my investment decisions. I hope he gives this entire lot the silent treatment in that regard but does come here and suggest how conservatives can unite and reclaim our rights by a government that has mistreated it's people and sold them down the river to foreign nations.


On Sep 24 02:58 PM gramps2 wrote:

> Buffet is a hypocrite.
>
> Its fine for the taxpayer to buy $700 billion of crap mortgage securities
> -- but its not OK for Berkshire Hathaway to buy even $5 billion.
> BRK instead bought $5 billion of cumulative convertible preferred
> shares from Goldman Sachs... you know the sort of preferred shares
> that Henry Paulson adamantly rejects having the taxpayer buy.
>
> This may be a cruel statement, but its 100% true. Given his age,
> Buffett will be dead long before the debt for this bailout comes
> due.
>
> BRK will collect 10% dividend yield from Goldman, even if the mortgage
> securities continue to decline. The only risk is if Goldman itself
> fails, which now that it is a Fed protected bank is a very small
> risk.
>
> If Buffet really believed the mortgage securities were such a great
> deal, he should have bought them directly. Given his (prior) reputation,
> such a vote of confidence would likely have brought in lots of other
> players and eliminated the need for a taxpayer bailout.
>
> Buffett bought cumulative convertible preferred shares for himself
> while recommending the taxpayer buy all the crap.
>
> Buffet: "Do what I say, not what I do"

Buffett Enters the Fray

It may backfire but what I know about Warren Buffett is his penchant for banking and insurance businesses. Now that GS is simply going to be a 'bank' and made safe and depositers backed by Treasury, it seems a safe investment to me. Bill Gross and Pimco has his own interests on a bailout package which has yet to pass, while it seems very plain to me GS is now for all intensive purposes has become very big depositer bank. Of course the government is going to come up with a form of a rescue plan. But whether that tilts favorably toward the banking system to citizens or a combination of both, it's a safe investment as far as I am concerned (safe as can be considering the whole house of cards may still fall, but the reward justifies the risk if it doesn't).


On Sep 24 01:02 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> Come on iThinkBig. Its a 700B investment in assets that Gross thinks
> the govt will make money on. Its interesting that Buffet was very
> clear that he only did this deal b/c he thought the govt would come
> through with a rescue plan. It was interesting that some Congressmen
> used his purchase as a sign that the govt didn't need to step in.
> Buffetts jumping the gun on GS to get in prior to a rescue rally
> may backfire on him.

Buffett Enters the Fray

What's the deal with the envy on the content of this article? Good for Warren Buffet. Are we still capatalists here or what? LOL. And if we are going to spend as a nation $700 B of taxpayers money, then we should be talking to Congressmen on the phone and booking meetings to suggest the mid and long term impact which best restores confidence and returns for the market as a whole.

Berkshire Hathaway: Like a Kid in a Candy Store

"Some observers contend that Buffett has become too distracted with too much ukulele-playing at Berkshire Hathaway’s investor gatherings and catching the public eye with trips to China, shown live on financial cable channel CNBC. Buffet is now also intent on saving the United States from "itself" and the mountain of debt it has amassed, which is the reason for his participation (and stellar performance) in the financial documentary "I.O.U.S.A.." "

I am involved in the attempt to save America from itself also. What I would actually call it is damage control and sparing as many lives as possible very real pain. Warren Buffet is what you call a true Christian and many get confused because of organized religion. Christianity is a code of ethics, it means you are willing to put others before yourself, even to death. I know this, because he takes the time to post information here at SA. That takes time to educate others, time he could use to add some zeros to his bank account.

Some feel this is a waste of time, to sacrifice for others when needed, but no this is not true. It actually creates some very nice investment opportunities down the line and creates trust as an honest player. If he is a kid in the candy shop then he did a great job on his paper route and save his pennies for the right time when all the other kids pissed there's away on tootsie rolls.

In reading Warren Buffets biographies and his writings here, I come to the conclusion he learned fundamentals at an early age and lived by them. This was balanced with his Judeo-Christian belief system that America was founded on and once so prosperously lived by.

He looks at a big picture using common sense of cause and effect and applies historical context based on repetetive human nature. A good gentleman and role model. Not a god, one who acquired wisdom from knowing God.