Jeremy Elliott

Steve Jobs: Not Dead Yet

What the hell is the previous comment talking about? Reread, numb-scull. Kedrosky doesn't perpetuate squat. There are 45 articles out today noting this lapse by Bloomberg in temporarily opening up the draft version of the Jobs obituary--all of them point out that Mr. Jobs isn't dead. Hello? It's a given that--one--we're all going to die, and that--two--when Jobs does, AAPL will trade lower on the news. There's nothing new here. Please corn off, mrtaxx.

Apple's 3G iPhone Appears Profitable

I found this to be a well-written article.

Will Apple's Sept. Quarter Guidance Disappoint the Street?

My comment is similar to the sentiment from kj. Carriers subsidize up front for 3G--much different that the previous models. Does it stand to reason that the accounting principles that guided Apple to defer iPhone revenue and expenses over 8 quarters are now gone, or did I miss something back during the WWDC when all the details came out?

Apple's iTunes: Rapid Sales Acceleration

Toni. What's your point?

ExpressJet Part II: Cashflows

Darwin's coming to the airline industry, and XJT will be one of the few regionals left standing. The higher the oil goes, the better XJT's performance relative to competitors--just look at the relative operating ratios for Asset, Inventory, and Receivables. Profitability in '08 is still a possibility.

AT&T Subsidy of Apple's iPhone Would Have Dramatic Effect - Bernstein

Tom B is right. I know we've been buzzing about 3G ever since we were standing in line on the the 2.5G release day. No matter how many Gs you get, there are three words that keep making Apple successful over its competitors regardless of form-factor: software, software, and software. What tipped the scales in iPod's favor aver all those look-alike 2.5" HD boxes that played mp3s? The software. Why are Mac sales accelerating faster than other PC sales? The software. The entire key to iPhone's future is in the developers acceptance of the SDK and the trampoline effect widespread acceptance of iPhone as the next--and first--truly handheld computing and gaming platform will have on revenues. I recall a table Q&A on stage 7 months ago between Gates and Jobs at some developer's conference. Each was asked to compliment one another, and it was there that the normally tight-lipped Jobs let it slip. He said that the biggest bright spot in Gates's career that he wished he would have picked up on earlier was Bill's ability to open up his platforms for partnerships with the right developers--harnessing and leveraging the talents of outsiders. Jobs isn't making the same mistake twice. iPhone is a Wii controller for a 3D game to a 13-yr old and a CRM portal to a 35 yr old sales exec. Even MS is developing with the SDK! Forget 2.5G vs. 3G vs. subsidized retail prices..... it's the software, stupid.

As With Fertilizer Commodities, POT Bubbles

Good comments, all. It's important to consider both sides of the story. But remember that, right or wrong on the fundamental basis, you can't move the market.

While breezing through some of the other companies mentioned in this article, I noticed this disparity:

TTM PEs:
AGU = 23.3
POT = 38.9

Keep an Eye on the Stock/Bond Ratio

I value an unbiased presentation of data when the impetus of the article claims to be as such. When I want someone to tell me it's all clear to pull the trigger, I pay 2.7% APR on my total account equity to listen to my professional broker tell me what to buy.

Apple's Move: Institutional Run-Up or Rebound?

EvanA-- very astute commentary. I listened to the last 4 calls. I watched the iPhone Software Roadmap presentation. I visit two different stores twice a month randomly through the week. Perception within today's crazy market will remain volatile, but the reality I am seeing is that Apple's plan is working. They even have Redmond writing programs for the iPhone! Come June/July, iPhone goes 3G, with full enterprise compatibility, and with a host of apps ranging from remote CRM apps to 3D flight sims. The 3D inertial accelerometer circuit turns the thing into a Wii. Now they have a foot in the door of the corporate market, and as an engineer using PCs during the day for the last 15 years only to finally try a mac and fall for it, I think Apple's foray into its final frontier will be successful. The iPod moves from a MP3 player to a mobile computing platform, sparking iPod growth story 2.0 (notice how iPod unit sales grew only 5% YoY last Q but iPod Rev Growth remains at 57%). RIMM is doomed. NetFlix & Blockbuster will eat it from Apple TV+iTunes. An Apple incursion into enterprise threatens the likes of Compaq, Dell, Microsoft. Even the blunder of the AirBook is way outselling targets. How "off" can everybody be?

Crox Could Rise on Piper's Inventory Comments

The comparisons to the iPod are close, except that I'd argue that iPods (and Macs over Samsungs, for that matter) do deliver a much more pleasurable user experience dollar-for-dollar than competitors. To say there's no moat on Crox and that models should dump 40% of future sales growth to substitution from knock-offs is to to say "I don't own a pair". There's something real about Croslite--it's not just hype. The knock-offs make you feel like a broke-back hooker looser. To say growth is dead and it's a fad is to say "I've never traveled overseas and I'm an ugly American wearing blinders". The is an international story now, beginning last Q when Int sales trumped Domestic. Think you got an eye for international fashion? Shorts want to absolutely crush this stock because they absolutely hate the appearance of the shoes--they let their contorted American sense of fashion muddy the strong fundamentals that completely support a PE double of what it is today. And, if you listen to the last call, Just a Hick, you'd have heard a detailing of how Mgmt has resisted the cheap-growth temptations, such as leasing all facilities. No, my short friend, they have purchased a great many of their warehouse and distribution facilities so that margins will continue to improve. I feel like were rushing into Iraq here looking for WMD again--all this made-up negative hype that's completely unsubstantiated. Who's drinking whose own koolaid when the fundamentals continue to blow all the shorts nay-sayings out of the water, Q after Q? Inventory? CROX has seen sales lost to depleted stock and margins cut due to a need for overnight air time and time again after demand has somehow exceeded even their highest of projections--they SHOULD be inventoried up over 40%. The last 5 QTRs has seen sales lost to depleted stock events, but the high inventories are the only string that the fashion-wary shorts have to cling to on this call. Could you imagine being wrong about a stock and about a sense of style at the same time?

Apple's iPhone Mistakes

As I've read how each of the carriers in each market have reported massive jumps in market share attributed to iphone-induced migrations, I think the upside for the carriers to go exclusive is obvious. As for Apple's upside, well, too many writers fail to do the math on the impact of those monthly residuals kicked-back from the carriers. A $280 margin on a great number of phones is a slaughtering of the sheep (see Motorola). A $280 margin on half as many phones plus a $15-$20 monthly kickback for 2 years deferred over the next 8 quarters is a sheering of the sheep. Sheering beats slaughtering--do the math. EDGE is slow, but 3G will be here come June, along with full enterprise support (bye bye, Blackberry) and a mind-numbing cornucopia of apps that will knock potential buyers on their collective cans. And those apps will open the door for iPod Version 2.0's growth story, not as merely a digital media player but as the first truly handheld mobile computing & gaming platform. End of cannibalization. This article's not too bad, and most of these comments are.

"Think about it. In your pocket, you have something that's broadband and connected all the time. It's personal. It knows who you are and where you are. That's a big deal. A really big deal. It's bigger than the personal computer." - John Doerr, Venture Capitalist (see Google's IPO for his history)

Apple's iPhone SDK: This is Brand New Big Sh*t, But

Barbarian's comments are on the mark. Developers were highly concerned that the SDK would be very limited in allowing outsiders access to the OS's core systems. The only way to grant total access (well, near total--I imagine) and not open up the platform for abuse was to control distribution. I think Jobs has finally learned from Gates's strongest suite--leveraging the intellectual power of outside partners.