Jeremy Elliott

Steve Jobs: Not Dead Yet

What the hell is the previous comment talking about? Reread, numb-scull. Kedrosky doesn't perpetuate squat. There are 45 articles out today noting this lapse by Bloomberg in temporarily opening up the draft version of the Jobs obituary--all of them point out that Mr. Jobs isn't dead. Hello? It's a given that--one--we're all going to die, and that--two--when Jobs does, AAPL will trade lower on the news. There's nothing new here. Please corn off, mrtaxx.

Apple's 3G iPhone Appears Profitable

I found this to be a well-written article.

Will Apple's Sept. Quarter Guidance Disappoint the Street?

My comment is similar to the sentiment from kj. Carriers subsidize up front for 3G--much different that the previous models. Does it stand to reason that the accounting principles that guided Apple to defer iPhone revenue and expenses over 8 quarters are now gone, or did I miss something back during the WWDC when all the details came out?

Apple's iTunes: Rapid Sales Acceleration

Toni. What's your point?

AT&T Subsidy of Apple's iPhone Would Have Dramatic Effect - Bernstein

Tom B is right. I know we've been buzzing about 3G ever since we were standing in line on the the 2.5G release day. No matter how many Gs you get, there are three words that keep making Apple successful over its competitors regardless of form-factor: software, software, and software. What tipped the scales in iPod's favor aver all those look-alike 2.5" HD boxes that played mp3s? The software. Why are Mac sales accelerating faster than other PC sales? The software. The entire key to iPhone's future is in the developers acceptance of the SDK and the trampoline effect widespread acceptance of iPhone as the next--and first--truly handheld computing and gaming platform will have on revenues. I recall a table Q&A on stage 7 months ago between Gates and Jobs at some developer's conference. Each was asked to compliment one another, and it was there that the normally tight-lipped Jobs let it slip. He said that the biggest bright spot in Gates's career that he wished he would have picked up on earlier was Bill's ability to open up his platforms for partnerships with the right developers--harnessing and leveraging the talents of outsiders. Jobs isn't making the same mistake twice. iPhone is a Wii controller for a 3D game to a 13-yr old and a CRM portal to a 35 yr old sales exec. Even MS is developing with the SDK! Forget 2.5G vs. 3G vs. subsidized retail prices..... it's the software, stupid.

Apple's Move: Institutional Run-Up or Rebound?

EvanA-- very astute commentary. I listened to the last 4 calls. I watched the iPhone Software Roadmap presentation. I visit two different stores twice a month randomly through the week. Perception within today's crazy market will remain volatile, but the reality I am seeing is that Apple's plan is working. They even have Redmond writing programs for the iPhone! Come June/July, iPhone goes 3G, with full enterprise compatibility, and with a host of apps ranging from remote CRM apps to 3D flight sims. The 3D inertial accelerometer circuit turns the thing into a Wii. Now they have a foot in the door of the corporate market, and as an engineer using PCs during the day for the last 15 years only to finally try a mac and fall for it, I think Apple's foray into its final frontier will be successful. The iPod moves from a MP3 player to a mobile computing platform, sparking iPod growth story 2.0 (notice how iPod unit sales grew only 5% YoY last Q but iPod Rev Growth remains at 57%). RIMM is doomed. NetFlix & Blockbuster will eat it from Apple TV+iTunes. An Apple incursion into enterprise threatens the likes of Compaq, Dell, Microsoft. Even the blunder of the AirBook is way outselling targets. How "off" can everybody be?

Apple's iPhone Mistakes

As I've read how each of the carriers in each market have reported massive jumps in market share attributed to iphone-induced migrations, I think the upside for the carriers to go exclusive is obvious. As for Apple's upside, well, too many writers fail to do the math on the impact of those monthly residuals kicked-back from the carriers. A $280 margin on a great number of phones is a slaughtering of the sheep (see Motorola). A $280 margin on half as many phones plus a $15-$20 monthly kickback for 2 years deferred over the next 8 quarters is a sheering of the sheep. Sheering beats slaughtering--do the math. EDGE is slow, but 3G will be here come June, along with full enterprise support (bye bye, Blackberry) and a mind-numbing cornucopia of apps that will knock potential buyers on their collective cans. And those apps will open the door for iPod Version 2.0's growth story, not as merely a digital media player but as the first truly handheld mobile computing & gaming platform. End of cannibalization. This article's not too bad, and most of these comments are.

"Think about it. In your pocket, you have something that's broadband and connected all the time. It's personal. It knows who you are and where you are. That's a big deal. A really big deal. It's bigger than the personal computer." - John Doerr, Venture Capitalist (see Google's IPO for his history)

Apple's iPhone SDK: This is Brand New Big Sh*t, But

Barbarian's comments are on the mark. Developers were highly concerned that the SDK would be very limited in allowing outsiders access to the OS's core systems. The only way to grant total access (well, near total--I imagine) and not open up the platform for abuse was to control distribution. I think Jobs has finally learned from Gates's strongest suite--leveraging the intellectual power of outside partners.