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boylan

boylan
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  • Fast Math: Will Northern Tier Energy Declare A 6% Distribution For Q1, Producing A 25% Price Gain? [View article]
    WNR is in a completely different market and is working on a pipeline project that has gotten a bit messy/delayed. Crude sourcing is Texas/New Mexico. Results not remotely comparable.
    Apr 8, 2015. 11:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy - Who Said Lower Oil Prices Were A Bad Thing? [View article]
    Normally I'd agree but this might be a case where the realistic threat of a lawsuit would force better behavior. Unfortunately, I don't see that being much of a threat because NTI is too obscure and there isn't probably any of "those" kind of investors in NTI.
    Mar 3, 2015. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy - Who Said Lower Oil Prices Were A Bad Thing? [View article]
    They have effective control of NTI. While they have a fiduciary responsibility to NTI, they have a lot of latitude in what they can do and frankly unless someone objects to the point where they get sued they can do what they want.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Best To Avoid The IShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF [View article]
    IBB is heavily weight to the profitable, larger biotechs. On average they have historically a very nice growth rate. The point of an ETF is that you spread your risk across enough stocks that you don't get caught in a downdraft if one stumbles.

    In this case a stumble with the stocks mentioned here a deceleration of growth rather than an implosion.

    WHEN the biotech inevitably sells off this ETF will be impacted less than others because so much of it is the highly profitable biotechs rather than the high flyers.

    If you compare it to FBT, which is an equal weight fund, FBT will get hammered harder when the biotechs eventually sell off.

    So, I have hard time sharing the thesis of this article.

    As an aside, while I own IBB and several biotechs directly, I think the biotechs are pretty toppy.
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy - Who Said Lower Oil Prices Were A Bad Thing? [View article]
    Spot on as far as this goes. What's left unmentioned is the potential for WNR to muck up distributions by dropping down NTI's gathering assets in ND to WNRL.

    I think this would result in a one-time gain but it would also result in new fee based crude transport costs - paid to WNRL. I'm not sure the tax implications since its an MLP but it's sure to be well depreciated assets and someone's paying tax on that.
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fantastic Results Reinforce Northern Tier Thesis [View article]
    Reading the transcripts from the WNR and WNRL calls, I got the impression that the drop down of the logistical assets was contingent on NTI having a use for the cash. Not sure what that would be at this point. Not real excited about this drop down because it will inherently reduce earnings and payout and it's clearly subject to WNR manipulating the numbers. Not exactly an arms length transaction.
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    Understood. I am curious about the operating costs because there is a widespread impression that shale operators will curtail production and I don't believe the marginal cost of production is anywhere the level that would cause operators to shut-in production.

    Clearly over the next 2-3 years while prices are depressed operators will shift to better producing areas - as your article nicely points out - and generally optimize their productivity. Remains to be seen whether this will extended the "bust" time period.
    Dec 30, 2014. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Continental Resources' Well Results Around 2 Major Well Pads Not Currently Economic [View article]
    For a completed well, what's the operating cost per barrel/month/year?

    The one thing you might not be fully taking into consideration is that at even $40-$60 per barrel realized, a large percentage of the well cost is quickly recovered. Said another way, it's not like operator cash flow is spread evenly across their payback period.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unexpected Rivals Could Benefit From Boeing's 'Mistake' Not To Build A 757NG [View article]
    The A321 and 737-900ER don't really have the range or payload to replace 757's. That's why, for example, Delta is/will only able to use them as replacements on shorter routes out of ATL.
    May 20, 2014. 09:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy: Expect Lower Dividends In 2014 [View article]
    Isn't NTI buying all of it's crude at a significant discount to WTI? They process Bakken and Canadian crude.
    Feb 13, 2014. 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier upgraded at Macquarie, target price hiked to $37 from $21 [View news story]
    It's an MLP. There is no justification for a price target like that. Not that I mind.
    Nov 14, 2013. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower WTI Oil Price Ahead [View article]
    On target analysis.

    That EOG slide is terribly misleading as it goes through March. Spring in the north central part of the US was horrible, late and long this year and it kept heavy trucks off the roads (due to thaw related problems) an extended period of time. And out of the fields.

    Current ND production running 900,000+ barrels as of August report.
    Nov 3, 2013. 02:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedgeye Insight On Gathering Systems [View article]
    Hey, Hedgeye doesn't have to be right - they just have to sell the report.

    It's probably partly the case that Kevin Kaiser doesn't understand the oil and gas business very well - the short pipelines that KM put it to connect to these gathering systems and plants aren't full their entire useful life and no one in the industry expects that. The fact that his upcoming report apparently references gathering systems implies to me that he doesn't really understand how the industry is structured.
    Sep 6, 2013. 12:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedgeye Insight On Gathering Systems [View article]
    These are 10 or 20 year contracts that Kinder Morgan is signing. If anyone is at risk it's the E&P companies.
    Sep 6, 2013. 11:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hedgeye Insight On Gathering Systems [View article]
    This is all fine but it has essentially nothing to do with Kinder Morgan's business as they aren't building the "capillaries" in the oil/gas business. Kinder Morgan (KMI/KMP/KMR) is building the interconnect and pre-selling access to it.

    If you look at Kinder Morgan's Eagle Ford gathering (http://bit.ly/1dYDXDb) business you'll see it's 20+ inch pipe and they are connecting to customer processing plants under firm long term agreements with limited mileage. It's not truly a gathering system.

    Kevin Keiser's thesis looks like it's based on two half-baked ideas that are going to get shot down when he actually releases his report.
    Sep 6, 2013. 08:30 AM | 40 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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