This Game is so Rigged

Existing Home Sales Haven't Fallen, Despite Gloomy Punditry

FYI and totally subjective (so don't barage me with a plethora of responses just because you don't agree).

Anecdotally speaking, my friend sells REO properties (on behalf of lenders) in Southern California – and says, “They’re not putting 90% of the non-performing sh*t that’s on their books on the market. They’re just sitting on it and waiting.”

Waiting for what (inflation perhaps?). Reminds me of Japan. BTW we already had the lost decade as well. S&P500 June '99 = 1315. June '09 = 900. It's not a decade, it's a generation.

Is Rambus the Next 27 Bagger?

Thanks for the great short idea. Let's see: Almost a half-billion in cumulative losses since 1990. Never turned a profit. 20 years in business, never made money. That's okay, they make it up in volume. $120MM per year in SG&A versus $140MM in sales.

I know, I know...it's a litigation story. Yeah, like they're gonna distribute that $13Billion to the shareholders. As if the defendants even have $13Billion. MU will declare bankruptcy and the other two will retreat to Korea. This company is worse than a biotech. You may get a bump in share price upon the anouncement of the judgement; but 5 years from now this company will still be losing money.

Guess who's still screwing homeowners?

Concur. Two parties - both the same. The Republicans pretend it's about fiscal responsibility, but really are only interested in usurping individual rights. The Democrats pretend it's about the right to choose, but really are only interested in being first among equals in a perfect socialist society where everyone is above average. Every Pres. is pre-approved via CFR, regardless of party affiliation. They are the true party.


On Jun 04 09:23 PM Market Sniper wrote:

> Yes, financial imprudence has been all the rage and should NOT be
> rewarded regardless of individual circumstance. But that is the way
> it works nowdays. I find it highly amusing that some still believe
> that we actually vote for the people set in place that suposedly
> call the shots. When we have a presidential election where BOTH party's
> candidates are pre-selected, you have to wonder. I detest Statists
> of all stripes, regardless of what wing of the Demopublican Party
> they belong. I have little doubt that had John McCain been elected,
> much today would be different.

Guess who's still screwing homeowners?

Umm...I agree with her about the bailout; and generally with the comments here. But grossing $26K per year and griping about all the money "we've been giving these banks" is laughable. She doesn't pay income tax and her social security will pay out a dozen times more than she's ever put in. Welcome to the UnitedStatesSocialistR... This isn't going to end well when a large number of producing people drop out. Kind of like East Germany.

Has Gold Been Manipulated?

If anyone cares about S & P 500 manipulation, this article is great.

zerohedge.blogspot.com...

Is There a REIT Reverse Inquiry Conspiracy?

@reitbull - yes, I believe you are correct; that's why a CMBS would file (to separate themselves from the general bankruptcy). Although I'm not familiar with the GGP specific bankruptcy.

@wobatus - dip lenders are secured by nothing other than the proxie of the judge. Which is why the dip financing comes at such a high price.
<According to the New York Times, "General Growth will pay 12 percent over the London interbank offered rate, a commonly cited reference rate for bank lending." The DIP loan is coming from Pershing Square Capital Management, the hedge fund run by William Ackman. And the cost of this financing -- though steep -- is one that GGP shareholders and creditors see as well worth the price, given that it could facilitate a successful reorganization of the company that would be in everyone's interest.>

Is There a REIT Reverse Inquiry Conspiracy?

@ wobatus

I think we have a vocabulary misunderstanding.

Secured, in this case, are mortgagors. They will foreclose and take/sell the specific underlying properties.

DIP lenders will become the new senior unsecured debt holders.

Unsecured, old-senior debt holders will get "bent over - crammed down - offered new bonds at less favorable rates - converted to common - whatever you want to call it" in favor of the common shareholders (current management).

The common shareholders (who ought to be wiped out entirely), won't be (hence Ackman saying he expects the common of GGP to emerge intact).

Is There a REIT Reverse Inquiry Conspiracy?

@ crazylegs:

Your assumptions about taking the property unlevered are completely without merit. What will happen to the bond holders is the bankruptcy judge will "bend them over" and require new - non-senior debentures to be issued and exchanged for the bonds that you're holding (at a haircut). The new debentures will be adequately adjusted down in rate and up in term to be viable based on the new, lower cashflow and reduced values of the underlying assets. You're playing in the deep end of the pool.

The Bull Case for Simon Property Group

The author wrote, "The three main reasons why I think Simon will prevail are its consistently high occupancy rates, the poor conditions of competitors such as General Growth Properties (GGP), and strong growth in Funds From Operations (FFO)."

Wrong on all three accounts.

High occupancy is a temporary factor that occurred because retailers signed leases 3-5 years ago during "boom times" in retailing. That is no longer the case.

Competitors failing will result in new owners purchasing the bankrupt malls at a significant discount - thereby enabling the failed malls to offer lower pricing to attract tenants - bringing down the value of all retail properties.

Growth in FFO is a direct result of occupancy and pricing. Both will be down significantly through 2011.

The IRS will try to recover $227M in unpaid taxes from Allen Stanford's Antiguan bank. Swindled customers can get in line.

So theft is now considered taxable income? They really don't care how you get it; so long as they tax it.

Housing Price Decline: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

to User 345288 -

SLG is an office reit that is especially vulnerable to NYC real estate. Although I haven't done enough work to suggest a short.


On Feb 02 04:33 PM User 345288 wrote:

> interesting, but what's the trade? is there a NY specific short real
> estate etf? I know of things like SRPIX but this is not NY-specific.

The Scariest Chart Ever

Absolutely. The Chinese are willing to trade flat screen televisions and new Nike sneakers (and the Middle East gives us oil) for rectangular pieces of green paper that only foreigners believe has intrinsic value. It's genius. We should continue to print and spend until we devalue.


On Jan 21 12:10 AM TTT wrote:

> Just print more money to borrow more money. Simple as that.

The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)

While I agree with almost everything you've written - the facts prove otherwise during this latest crisis. The dollar has strengthened to levels not seen in years...and gold has sold off. Treasuries are so strong, they've actually moved to negative yield. None of this supports your very logical argument.

Shanghai Should Continue to Sell Off

Won't the $1TrillionUSD in their reserves help to alleviate any need for capital by the state banks??

The Great Consumer Crash of 2009

Very comprehensive. But I think Quinn does not give enough credit to the average indebted American citizen. Why would they save when the government devalues their savings by 3-7% per year? M3 has doubled over the past 10 years - and even if you take out the overly exaggerated GDP, it's still a devaluation of 50%. It doesn't make any sense to save dollars, and the average person doesn't know any other way to keep their earnings.

Can a massive “readjustment” be far off (e.g. the UK in the 1949 and then again in '67)?