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This Game is so Rigged

This Game is so Rigged
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  • The Great Consumer Crash of 2009 [View article]
    Very comprehensive. But I think Quinn does not give enough credit to the average indebted American citizen. Why would they save when the government devalues their savings by 3-7% per year? M3 has doubled over the past 10 years - and even if you take out the overly exaggerated GDP, it's still a devaluation of 50%. It doesn't make any sense to save dollars, and the average person doesn't know any other way to keep their earnings.

    Can a massive “readjustment” be far off (e.g. the UK in the 1949 and then again in '67)?
    Aug 14, 2008. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M/I Homes: Over-Punished by the Markets [View article]
    My belief is that there is zero value in the common. The bond holders and pref-A will most likely get all their money back. I, however, will cover between $3-5 per share; because this stock is so lightly traded - heavily shorted - and easily manipulated upward. If the stock hits $20 again - I'll short more.

    Incidentally, I just paid the dividend yesterday (for ex-div 6/27). What a bargain for the shorts!
    Jul 16, 2008. 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M/I Homes: Over-Punished by the Markets [View article]
    Yes Saj,

    My belief is that management is not marking real estate to market (as in the case of a bankruptcy sale). Just to where they believe it's "properly valued". Additionally, $100MM of that book value was "artificially" created when they diluted your common shares with Pref-A. My opinion is that they will "create" another $50-100MM of "book value" with another dilution.

    Many smart people have been arguing that this isn't a book value story; but a cash flow story. To which I respond, after they produce the cash flow to cover their $160MM of annual SG&A - and burn through all their dirt - what do you own as a shareholder?

    They're borrowing your money at 10 cents a share dividend (which is why I don't mind paying your dividends for you) while the stock moves down from $40 to $14.
    Jul 14, 2008. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M/I Homes: Over-Punished by the Markets [View article]
    Saj, the problem is that $40 (not $50) of real estate on the books was primarily puchased between '04 and '06 - currently dirt trades at about .35 on the dollar (so let's be generous and say book is $16). However, the pref-A eats another $7 of that. And the next dilution (which also "increases" book value) - drops the common book to about $9.

    I'll cover my short at $5.
    Jul 9, 2008. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M/I Homes: Over-Punished by the Markets [View article]
    My work shows razor thin margins and a loss of $5 per share this year. With almost no cash (after burning through the $100MM pref from last year); I expect another dilution shortly.

    In my opinion, this is the worst of all the home builders. No upside because of limited footprint - and bk on the downside.


    Disclosure - I'm short of MHO
    Jul 2, 2008. 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trimming Trina on Solarfun's Beat and Suntech's Earnings [View article]
    Trader Mark, if you are truly back in at 46, you're in for a lot of pain. People don't put together this kind of PR push, and come to me to borrow shares if they plan to push for 1 day. TSL sees 30 before it sees 55 - and unfortunately, I'm a perma-long.
    May 23, 2008. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trimming Trina on Solarfun's Beat and Suntech's Earnings [View article]
    Two days ago I get a call to borrow my TSL at 10% - which I lend. Of course if someone is willing to pay 10% to borrow my shares - they must know something. So now, the PR assualt begins. Trader Mark - a solar bull for years starts poking holes - and then the WSJ piece. Who's next - Cramer? Probably.

    Keep up the good work boys - I'll just stick with my TSL at 10x 2008 pe with 30% growth.
    May 22, 2008. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Suffering Trina Solar Finally Gets Some Relief [View article]
    Mark, with '08 nearly 100% sold at $800MM with 15% net margin, the company is trading at 6.7 forward P/E.

    What's wrong?
    Mar 7, 2008. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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