lc_william's Comments

The Average Home Price in Detroit Falls to $13,638

Sun, 22 Mar 2009 13:15:51 -0400

San Fran houses on avg under $300K? No chance. Go to realtor.com and check on single family homes -- for all of San Francisco there are only 13 single family homes available at less than $300K. How many total homes are for sale in SF? 784... 13/784 = <2%, not the average. If ever there is a ghetto area in SF, my guess would be all 13 are in scary areas of SF. The misleading piece of info whenever anyone talks about "the avg price" of homes in a particular area is the fact that these statistics count in the massive oversupply of condos (also known as crappy apartments with terrible, permanent neighbors) as being "homes."

Always remember to filter out info that sounds too good to be true. Still today in 2009, SF single family home average price =~$600-$800K; now if you factor in horrible condos in areas you would never want to live in, with less sq footage than your average Suburban, then yes you can get the SF area price to just under $300K. Just remember this before you run to the coasts to get your dream home (and fill the pockets of the local Realtor).

It's going to be at least 2-3 years more of downward prices before we normalize. Good luck and godspeed!

The Future of California's Housing: Shortage Ahead?

Sun, 08 Feb 2009 13:25:49 -0500

I was going to post a wonderfully articulate article opining on the real CA real estate market and how a shortage is the last thing CA will have; however, Law Girl (above) has nailed it.

It is very clear that you do not live in CA. Housing prices are still 30-50% over priced. CA is one of the most unfriendly business environments in the nation. CA already has huge unemployment issues and needs to raise more taxes out of both consumers and businesses to fight off its debt. CA will be the first state bailed out by the gov't.

Only a realtor, making a living off of home buyers, would tell individuals to buy CA real estate before all of the Alt-A loans reset in 2011-2012. FYI, there will be as many defaults on Alt-A loans as there will be on subprime in 2008-2009.

Housing Affordability Surges

Sat, 31 Jan 2009 12:40:10 -0500

If anyone believes the NAR then I have some lovely swamp land in Florida to sell you. 1) The NAR is backed by Realtors, 2) Realtors are real estate agents that make money when they sell houses, 3) if Realtors can convince you ("the sucker") to purchase real estate at wildly inflated prices they make $$$$$, 4) real estate prices on the east and west coasts are still wildly inflated, 5) if Realtors publish dribble like "houses more affordable now than in the past 20 years" - you ("the suckers") will buy houses that are still wildly inflated and 7) you will feed the wallets of Realtors and thus begin supporting the NAR's wallet and they will feed you even more of the same crap.

Please use your own noggin, do you have 20% down? No I didn't think so. That's because 20% of a massively inflated price is still a TON of money. Housing prices can only get cheaper from here on out (so there's no reason to buy now) because jobs are constantly being lost. Over 100,000 jobs were lost in the US in just the last week. If people lose their jobs, this doesn't make houses "more affordable," it makes house less affordable. And when people lose jobs, they default on their houses causing housing prices to go down even further.

Please be smart with your money and look at the environment around us. Housing prices are still at record levels on both coasts. The NAR continues to tell us to buy houses (and they have been telling us the same dribble every single year since they've been established by the Realtors). Buying in this environment will set your retirement back 20 years in most states.

Is Norilsk Really Selling Its SWC Stake?

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 11:27:18 -0500

Even if Mark Anthony is correct today, he is the boy who cried wolf.

He has been touting PAL and SWC for several years now. Based on the price of PAL and SWC, Mark has lost everyone, I repeat EVERYONE money. If he is so attuned to global markets, he should have seen the strengthening of the USD and the global slowdown.

These are the two real reasons that Palladium, Platinum and all other dollar denominated assets have gotten crushed yet, for the most part, he appears to skate around global demand destruction and no mention whatsoever of the strengthening USD.

In your December 13 article at $3.58 per share you were absolutely convinced that this price was the bottom (in fact, your article was titled "calling the bottom"). Now the price is down to just over $1. What do you have to say to those investors that invested $10K and are now left with just over $3K... a nearly 70% loss in under 1 year.

Think if you had pushed the opposite way and told all investors to short all of your SWC / PAL ideas or buy put options -- you'd be crowned a genius and we would follow you like the pied piper.

Mark - as you continue to avoid reality and pump dead metals, when do you plan on acknowledging the USD strengthening and global demand destruction?

A Trader's Market - Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/13/08)

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:09:28 -0400

Cramer's right - it's not a buy and hold market.

But he's absolutely wrong in that he's been telling you to buy AAPL for 3 years. He has gone back and forth (as usual) between buying and selling AAPL for 3 years. His AAPL calls even in the last 6 months have been both bullish AND bearish; congrats if you had listened to him recently, you just lost 42%!

www.cramerproject.com/...

Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 00:42:47 -0400

I talk with Goldman Sachs on a weekly basis; this guy has bad information. GS never said oil will be at $140. For the last three months, and even now, GS says oil by the end of 2008 will be $80... not monumental. This guy needs to provide the source of the individual at GS. This is incorrect data he is spouting.

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

Sun, 12 Oct 2008 12:40:30 -0400

Lehman Brothers on Sale?

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:46:40 -0400

LEH is finished. Equity goes to zero.

Buy your puts now before you miss out on more easy money (FNM,FRE).

Lehman Brothers on Sale?

Thu, 11 Sep 2008 14:45:26 -0400

LEH is finished - greed crushed them, nothing more.

Select Chinese Stocks Have a Way to Go

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 14:01:37 -0400

Thank you in advance for your advice.

Select Chinese Stocks Have a Way to Go

Mon, 17 Mar 2008 14:00:52 -0400

It's frustrating that you do not reply to posts about your article. I have 2.5% of my portfolio in FMCN and it's very frustrating watching the stock plummet. Where do we go now? What have done with your position? Any comments on this or other China stocks in your article would be appreciated.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

Sat, 08 Mar 2008 14:05:01 -0500

The $100,000 Challenge...

In a prior post, Jack Yetiv challenges Figtrader to a $100,000 challenge:

"Figtrader does not believe my statement re: 30% compounded annual returns. I invite him to post $100,000 in an escrow account, I will do the same, and we'll have an accountant calculate my investment returns over the past 18 years. Winner take all."

The top 2 big posters for this article should battle it out. I'd hope Figtrader and Jack would rise to the occasion and allow seekingalpha.com to host this challenge.

Seeking Alpha would post the annualized return results of Figtrader versus Jack - the results would be calculated by an independent auditor / accountant agreed upon by both Figtrader and Jack.

Are you two up for the public challenge? Even if it's $10K instead of $100K, it's the theater, not the dollar amount that strikes the interest.

I would certainly tune in weekly

Select Chinese Stocks Have a Way to Go

Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:22:59 -0500

The above stocks you mention have been on a strong downward decline lately, where's the bottom on these stocks? Also, how large is your overall portfolio in USD terms?