stockmarketadvantage

Bullishness at Contrarian Extreme

I would also like to see the formula that made up this "sentiment index." If anyone can produce it I will tip my hat to you.

My Favorite Financial Blogs

The "Marc Faber Blog" is almost certainly not written by Faber. It is someone capitalizing on his name, as they also have a "Jim Rogers Blog." I should have thought of that.

Marc Faber's 10% Prediction? Gimme a Break

Faber has been one of the more accurate predictors of the markets over the years. Of course, he is not perfect and no one will ever be. He is, however, in my opinion, much more relevant than a Jim Cramer or Ken Fisher.

Closed End Fund Fire Sale

At mid-week closed ends (CE) were trading at discounts I had never seen before in my life. I bought 15 different CEs on Wednesday (9/17) and Thursday (9/18). On Friday (9/19) at the market's close my average gain was 13%. It was like finding a pile of money on the sidewalk waiting to be picked up.

How Much Have our Real Estate Assets Gone Down?

If accurate, that is a shocking chart.

If wealth destruction like that doesn't put us in a serious recession, nothing will.

A frightening thought just entered my mind....Nouriel Roubini might be downplaying the risks.

eBay Is a Losing Bid - Barron's

Barron's is right about 50% of the time so I would take their views with a grain of salt. Ebay is still the site many people use to search for the "real" going price of an item. I'm sure the smart people at Ebay have backup contingencies if the new software doesn't go quite according to plan. The future for Ebay is better than most in a slowing economy as people out of work attempt to sell their junk accumulated over many years to fuel their fireplaces.

Timber: Shake the Money Tree

Weyerhaueser (WY) is another large holder of timberlands. An article in Barron's estimated WY's timber assets alone were worth $59 a share. The stock has fallen since then.

online.barrons.com/art...

Homebuilder ETF Rises Despite More Bad Housing News

The housing market worldwide during 2004-2006 was probably the biggest financial mania ever in terms of its financial and geographic scope. It will take many years to form a good base to recover from. In the meantime we'll have tradeable rallies from time to time which are doomed to fail. This is just one of them.

The Usual News: Home Price Data Remains Grim

The worldwide housing bubble was probably the biggest financial mania in history. Anyone who thinks the decline is over hasn't examined the facts. It will be years before housing stabilizes. In the meantime, there will be false bottoms as there are in any bear market and we are in a secular bear market for housing!

U.S. Dollar Rallies On U.S. Corporate Earnings

These recent positive earnings reports tell us nothing about the future. There is still a massive inventory of unsold homes...not just here, but in Europe also. This does not bode will for future earnings as the consumer gets squeezed further by falling home equity and rising gas prices. The recent breakout of the equity market looks like a giant sized sucker rally.

Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up

Some have mentioned that the ultrashorts don't perform as advertised. I have an interesting example. SRS (which I own) closed at 85.18 on 4/3/08. Back on 10/15/07, SRS closed at 86.27. IYR closed at 77.50 on 10/15/07 and closed at 69.99 on 4/3/08. SRS is supposed to be a double short of IYR. Does anyone else see a problem with these numbers? It appears that there is a lot of slippage in the SRS. More than the approximately 1% annual expense ratio.

GE Drops a Bomb, But Options Traders Are Cautiously Optimistic

Sharesunited, the seasonal pattern of market strength has been certainly turned on its head that past 5 months. The May through October period should be interesting.

Weingarten Realty REIT: Strong Yield, Safe Property Portfolio

If we go into a deep recession such as that forecast by Peter Schiff and Nouriel Roubini you definitely do not want to invest in retail REITs such as this one.

Regional Bank Failures: The Next Shoe to Drop

I live in Florida and every other corner in the past 3 years has had a new bank branch put up. There are more bank branches than Walgreens or CVSs. If some of them fail it will be no great loss.

GE Drops a Bomb, But Options Traders Are Cautiously Optimistic

The market has been strangely immune to bad news that shows the economy is worsening. Are mysterious forces at work, or do the mass of investors feel the economy will turn around by year-end? Today may mark a turning point where rational thought results in substantially lower prices for equities.