ganeshji

12 Reasons to Short Gold

Just did not see a comment about deflation in this. If unemployment rises then I expect to see wages fall and this would be a big factor for deflation. Fear is in control right now and I can make a great case for gold...I just think most people are a little early wait for a pull back now. The government is printing way too much money...so any asset after a little fear of deflation is a good buy....but wait for people screaming deflation before you buy.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I enjoy reading your work!

Brace Yourself For the Payrolls Number

Rabbito I did make a bet... that what trading is:) I hope you have your money down for tomorrows games. Just for the recorder... the number is higher and stock down but not as much as they should be...

Tuesday's Action: Sign of a Bottom?

I'm a bear, but I know when I should get out of the way and go back to the woods. I was short S&P with options (Yes ouch it hurt a little:(!) However, I'm not out of the way I expect to see a few people throw money at this rally tomorrow in the AM and I plan to add to my short and add to my long energy service stocks. But the bulls are right today. I will say I can see more value in this market today then a year ago. I just hope to find a little more value. I do think the market needed a little hope and that is what this is about people just thinking it can't be that bad...can it?

Central Banks, in Panic Mode, Announce Large Auction

Help me with one thing...does anyone think this was a smart idea. One because if you help hold the dollar I think overseas investors may be more willing to put money into our market. It seems hard to me to make money if you are a overseas investor is losing money due to the dollar sinking.

I due think it was smart...I'm not sure if it will work since banks might still hold as much cash as they can.

Thanks,
Douglas

One Tank of Ethanol = Food for One Year

I think this is a very import post. The most important thought here is what do lose or what we will lose in the future. In the last few years food inflation has been very real in fact an investor would have got a better return on wheat or corn then oil.
Here are the return rates
Wheat futures prices have tripled since 2004
Corn prices have almost tripled since 2005
Soybeans have tripled since 2006
Crude oil is up about 60% in the past three years

We might be heading down the wrong road to energy independences. However, this might be America’s cure from eating too much. All joking aside two possible outcomes:

1. US Government keeps passing rules to that helps the ethanol industry. This will work if we become more efficient in crop production. I don’t think we can add that much more land to production without a change in the workforce and the some effects to the environment so I think it would have to be efficient that would stabilize crop prices to make this scenario to work.

2. Rising food cost causes the government to changes the laws on that benefit ethanol. I think the 2nd one is more likely to occur.

I understand this is a very complex issue and my 2 choice are limiting. Looking at real wages vs. inflation I think without a drop energy and food price we could see a changes to how we look at this issue and more important the US Government might change the laws.