Black Swan

Two Money Quotes from John Serrapere

Roger-Excellent article as usual. You articulated exactly what I am going through with my portfolio. I am retired and suffered a 32% pounding in 2008. I want to try to make a good portion of that loss back but I sure as hell had better think what would happen to my wife & I if we took another 32% shot this year. I am keeping 5 years expenses covered with BSV,WIP, TIP along with cash for 2010. Rest is well diversified in equities and REITS.

Comparing International Small Cap Funds

I am surprised you didn't include SCZ in your comparison.
Biggest difference appears to be VSS includes emerging
market small caps.

A Month of Seeing Red

I think your GS Market Portfolio index makes all the sense in the world so to speak. You are adopting David Swensen type approach which has been super successful for Yale Endowment Fund for last 20 years with 16% + annual return average. By the way Vanguards new Managed Payout Funds use a somewhat similar approach and provide a very easy way to invest following Swenson/GS Market type models and theory. See for example VPGFX.

Thornburg's a Huge Bargain After Monday's Crash

I have been following this blog for a few days, Bought some TMA PRF @ $5.50 and bailed at $4.60. Now @ $3.35. I think Jack and all the other posters are super smart. Unfortunately you are all running various scenarios about TMA that you can nicely fit under a bell curve to support your opinion. Unfortunately TMA ran into a "Black Swan". A "Black Swan" is a highly improbable event that is "unpredictable; carries a massive impact; & after the fact we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predicable than it was". See The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb. Going forward I am sorry to say that your opinions about what happens to TMA Monday or thereafter will be worth about as much as mine or your cab driver. TMA is a pure gamble as are most individual stocks. I have my "crazy money" of about 1-2% of my portfolio which I used for the TMA purchase. Other 98% is very broadly indexed.