Xyrus

Commodities: Bubble or Not?

CrossingTheT, you are incorrect.

Democratically elected governments go to war whenever they damn well feel like it. They just have the additional hurdle of convincing their population that there is a clear and present danger that has to be dealt with. Once you have the population believing in whatever boogeyman you've created, you can get them to do pretty much anything you want them to do. As an example of this, look at Hitler's rise to power. He didn't slash and burn his way to the top. He got the people to believe in him and they WILLINGLY gave him all the power he wanted.

The same thing has happened many times throughout history, even in democratic regimes. And, more than likely, it will continue to happen many years into the future. Our current set of "problems" we have started over 50 years ago when we decided that securing our oil supply was more important than some nations soverignty (Iran), so we decided to help overthrow a democratically elected government (in Iran) and replaced it with the Shah (made Saddam look like a cute cuddly teddy bear). Yeah, couldn't see that one coming back to bite us on the ass.

Nuclear war? For what? What would they gain? The point of any sort of resource war is to capture the the resource. Nuclear weapons do not capture anything, thy destroy. What good is an oil field if it is irradiated to the point of lethality for the next 10000 years? Nuclear weapons are used for mass destruction of infrastructure (cities, manufacturing centers), production (people who work there), military centers (bases and such), and under certain conditions ship and troop conglomerations. Nukes are really a useless weapon unless you're talking about obliteration. Annihilating a country gains you little. Sure you have a victory but then what? A radiated wasteland full of charred remains is hardly what one would call a spoil of war.

There is no bubble. But there is a series of events which have happened at the right time to jack prices. The dollar has lost a good percentage of its value, which in turn drives up the price. There is also an increased demand. In some cases, there is ample supply but there isn't enough infrastructure to move it around or refine it. Whenever there is a bottleneck in a supply chain, the prices will go up.

PaulTaut, you have no idea what you're saying. Suspending EPA regulations for refineries? Do you have the slightest idea how dangerous the chemicals are coming out of a refinery? Let me guess, as long as thy don't build it near you it's okay, right? Even with the regs, no one wants to be near a refinery and they still pollute the environment.

So in summary, we have a decreasing currency, and increasing demand. In some cases, we have the supply but lack the infrastructure to move it/refine it. All that leads to higher prices. Bu don't kid yourself. A good chunk of that profit your seeing isn't profit, it's just offsetting inflation.

~X~