Dwane

A Sloppy 60 Minutes Segment on Oil Prices

I watched the show and was thinking the same coulld have been said of GOLD in the early 80's. It took 25+ years for gold to break new highs. I suspect the same will be for oil. Although I do believe oil is somewhat undervalued at the moment it will likwly never see these prices ($147) for sometime. I think the "green revolution" will bring us out of the current problems and when we run short of oil to lubricate turbines then the price of oil will again spike. The program did however magnify only one aspect of the price spike and it only exploits the flaws of capitalism. I think we can all agree that Capitalism is not the "answer" but it is the best we have until something that works better comes along.

Time To Go Long, For A Short Time?

I think the rates will stay the same. I think the goal is to suck all the life out of the emerging economy's so that commodities do not rise as rates are cut. The economy would be fine if not for the emerging economy's growing like wildfire. That lead to commodity inflation. I got into this market Friday after sitting out. To me its a happy entry point. I can't see anything dramatically lower in the next 6 weeks. My fear is a double bottom usually 52-64 days after today.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Lets say oil goes to $300 per barrel or $8 per gallon at the local service station. I agree demand is growing and supply is limited, but vacations will be within 100 miles not 10,000 miles. The only way demand is going to slow is if there are less people on the planet, or the cost goes up. I personally think a stalled economy will cause the bubble to bust.

The White Elephant That Could Destroy Your Portfolio, Part I

We all know that food and fuel are rising and these ae two staples which we require for our surival and lifestyle. The idea of lowering interest rates until housing stabalizes might be 2-5 years off. In the end inflation will have to rise faster and faster until houses look cheap. This mess looks much worse than the tech bubble. The problem is all the cheap money went after commodities. It may be awhile before cheap money goes back to the housing industry. In the meantime core inflation (which I might add means nothing to an aging population rises) real inflation will have to rise higher and higher.

1990 All Over Again?

Nice chart comparison. I believe we will close the year higher. I just wonder how much lower before the long long climb up. You must remember when the going gets tough .... the rules change (just ask the Fed about the bailout). We still live in a country where 94.8% of people who want a job have one. Its not all doom and gloom. I will be a buyer within the next two months. These will hopefully be viewed as good times to have bought. As commodities fall the markets will go up.

The Beginning of the End of the Credit Crisis?

I agree low volume rises seem worrisome. Another worry is the thought that financials raising lots of money .... only to pay it out in dividends. Its got the vision of a ponzi scheme. The banks are too scared to slash dividends, so they raise billions to water down their stock and keep up the dividends ? I still believe that the markets will close with a gain this year, but not a buyer in the next two months.

'The Worst Is Over for Financials' - Really?

First the value of property must find an equallibrium. I remember the telecom mess and the problems were always one quarter away from being "fixed". Banks will a good place to go only when we have property values fairly set. Until then banks can only water themselves down (issue more shares) just to keep from Chapter 11.

Should We Force a Housing Bottom?

I agree property taxes on your first home should be minimal and massive on your second property or atleast non tax exempt even as an expense.

Financial Stocks: Where Will They Go Once Investors Sober Up?

A good article, I personally think any sector is a bad sector for equities when "sell in May and go away" is 3 days off. I think when the economy rebuilds after the commodity bubble bursts everybody will seek the financials. I am hopeful to get into them in early July.

Fox Business Gunning for James Cramer

Jim Cramer is is like one of them has been fellows that apears on TV because its his 'in-between-jobs' job. He reminds me of a baseball manager running onto the field and arguing every call at first base. Personally I find him a very good entertainer. When he speaks his mind its great. Would I ever take what he says seriously NEVER. Sure I'll keep watching in anticipation that one day he gets so mad his eyes pop out. Keep him in context ... he's an entertainer.

Are We Seeing a Bottom in the Financial Sector?

I bought lots of XLF the Friday before the mess last Monday and I have already unloaded about 35% of it today. I bought it for the long run as I am 100% the financial system will not fall 100% apart. I like the long term for banks but up 15% in a little over a week is not realistic.

Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact

The big picture says equities bottomed last week and will be the "flavor of the month" until March 2009. Commodities will become range bound and gold will always have its following or "groupies". An intersting view (or model) is that of Martin Armstrongs back in the 1980's.

Here's Why the Fed Has No Credibility

If you want confidence in the market why does the US government announce the opening of its oil reserves and drive the price of oil and other commodities down. That would be a better shock to the system than another rate cut to drive up commodities. All this cheap money is not ending up with the homeowner its ending up in commodities.