lblaine

S&P 500 Valuation and Earnings Analysis

As you said, the asset prices will continue to be supported by the huge liquidity in the system. With all governments stimulating their economies, maintaining artificially low interest rates, and virtually giving money to the banks, equities prices (in nominal terms) will continue to go up. With the US government committed to 10 trillion in deficits over the next eight years (these will at least be double that per prior government estimating prowess), the DJIA will easily reach 50,000 by 2020, which will still only be about 10 oz. of gold, about where we are now.

New Home Sales: Trying to Make a Bottom

The over-hang of supply is significant. Looks like some home builders will be going bankrupt.

Time to Buy Water ETFs?

PICO


On Jan 04 01:42 PM granger wrote:

> Is there any direct play on water rights? Either through a stock
> or ETF

Credit Cruuuunch

After the Olympic orgy, China is re-thinking its direction. They will focus on internal development. They will purchase energy, metals and other assets, at the source, that assure them a stable supply. They do not need the US and Europe.

Is This a Money Making Bailout?

Gross is talking his own book, as usual. He wants to sell to the government at 65 cents to the dollar; then he buys it back cheaper.

9 Reasons Why We Are Close to, If Not Past, the Bottom

Yes, we are close to a short-term bottom, like 1000 DOW points away!

Looming Wave of Option Repricing?

Slaughtered shareholders are stupid enough to approve options repricing?

Chart of the Day: Palin on InTrade

Unless you have inside information, the action was all just gambling.

Real Disposable Income Up in Q2

Unemployment is increasing, including Wall Street. GS paid $30 billion in compensation in 2007, but less than $1 billion to shareholders as dividends. It is preferable to work on wall street, not invest in Wall Street. This disposable income has been distorted by the massive speculation on Wall Street, and payout of obscene bonuses, at the expense of shareholders. The day of reckoning is coming.

False Data Clobbers the Markets

Good luck with your short of USO. Hope it isn't on margin.

Inflation or Deflation?

We are in a deflationary spiral. The clearing out of the over-leveraged assets (houses, certain businesses, SIVs, etc.) requires a downward re-pricing of everything. Many more people will be bankrupt, as unemployment increases and home prices continue to fall. Businesses will not be able to make their bond payments and will re-negotiate with lenders or go under. Banks and hedge funds holdings highly leveraged CDOs will fail. If the government stops interfering, this washout could occur in a reasonable time frame.

Gold will hold its purchasing power, but not necessarily its price.

Oil and its derivatives will always be costly, because of dwindling supplies and manipulation of OPEC. Other supply-constrained resources, such as agricultural products and potable water, will continue to be costly.

We're Only Halfway Through the Credit Crisis

Okay, lets say your $1 trillion is correct and "Markets will fall lower ... and investors should start contemplating the bottom, which ... will occur next year." Next year is eternity in this market, and it looks like shorts are in order.

Predicting the Bottom in Gold

Gold is insurance, holds its buying power (but no necessarily price) and provides diversification.

The US mint has stopped minting gold coins. You can buy "paper" gold at $800/oz, but not physical gold!

Ten Notes on Credit Risk

Nice article. No. 9 is the eight hundred pound gorilla!

Goldman Calls a Bottom in the Dollar

The dollar will likely strengthen over the next several months. This is a normal retracing in a overall downward trend. The de-leveraging in the credit markets (CDOs, SIVs, etc. ) over the next year will precipitate the failure of many banks and hedge funds. There will be a flight to the "quality" of US Treasuries, creating high demand for the US$.