bruin532

Start Planning for a Hard Economic Landing

Your putting a lot of faith in the dollar considering we don't know how much the Fed will need to print to bail out the Financial system. With continued tax cuts and increased spending national debt and enitlement programs wheres the money going to come from. Absent present currancy intervention and a weak Europe the dollar should be weeker and is struggleing to remain beow 150 to Euro.

Euro: The Return of History

The ability of the US economy to rebound quickly (before Europe)because it was first in so its first out of recession is no given. The systemic problems of debt, entitlements, bailouts, jobs do not bode well for a quick let alone robust recovery.

Time To Start Buying Some Dogs?

You failed to mention GE's financial componant

Global Inflation Rates

What you fail to mention is the method that was used to compute these inflation figures, do the other countries deduct fuel and food?

Financial Fears Sweeping the Globe

If your a buy and hold investor this is not like the 2001 fall that was derived on fear. This is all on techical data thats stacked to the roof. Its tough selling and watching 10-15% given back when you thought it was in the bank. The thunder clouds are rolling in you've been warned if you get wet or worse struck my lightening I hope you've got the time horizon to wait this one out!

RBS Predicts Global Market Crash: What's In It for Them?

Perhaps this will finally call for the abolisment of the FED they have no public perpouse but to serve their own needs. I'm sure bette could be done even by our Federal Goverment.

Calling a Bottom Here

For a professional this is a very simplistic approach. Deficits, job losses, inflation, forclosures, subprime all need to be cured before we get a REAL bull market.

Preparing for the Fall

Isreal will hit Irans centerfuges within the next 45 days look for a mooless night before the olympics, why was Bush just in Isreal? For a vacation! The dow theory was just breached bearish/down industrials and transports just dropped below the 50DMA. Remember youy trading/investing against the black boxes the computers are doing most of the trading on TA for the big boys. Better to be safe than sorry. IF you can time the bottom you'll beat a buy and hold invester evey day. Any way this is not an index market its definately a stock pickers market.

Preparing for the Fall

If your within 10 years of retirement and you see a further 50% fall like post 911 you may be waiting 20 years to come back to even. I held in 1999 because that was based on fear not technicals. Look at the technicals today, the federal deficit and budget, SS IOU's, soaring inflation-materials-en... We are an economy in decline. Undertaxed, morgaging our future and leaving our debt to our children. No company would be run this way and no county should be inflating itself out if debt by stealing 10% a year from the dollar and most cruelly effecting the retired and those saving to retire.

Preparing for the Fall

If you stick with the basics we all know its bad out there. Oil, food, utilities etc etc etc and wages are not keeping up. The talking heads talk about companies exceeding profits (after they halfed expectation a month earlier). A stock is just a peice of paper valued on what? Dividends (maybe) but most likely on the profitability of the company, since it won't be liquidated to book value (and provide a payout)which would be a lot less. This market has made investor into day traders because no one with any common sence wants be have market exposure and if no ones standing in line to buy your position its really just a ponzi scheme. Now with the fed and the plunge protection team at work is not even a free and open market. The great depression is not a myth it did occur and this economy is setting up earily similar. unpresidented federal action ,Loose credit, bankruptcys, bank failures etc. One last thing everything George Bush touched in business went bust his oil company the baseball team but he always walked away richer and leaving ruins behind. My prediction is the Fed and gov will keep things afloat till after the new president is in office then we will see a major depression.

Bill Gross: Understated Inflation Means Commodities, Emerging Markets Should Outperform

If you can't believe their inflation figures why believe the employment figures. Their cooking the books there too. How many people have fallen off the grid since their off unemployment or no longer lookig for a job?

What about the Pocket Recessions?

I believe nothing coming out of this goverment, beginning with WMD

Unstoppable Credit Contraction

what

Feed Your Hedge Against Volatile Markets

Thanks goodness everyone finally is bearish read all the Alpha blogs now and there all calling for the worst case its finally time to buy when everyone is going one way go the other the Armstrong business cycle called it!

Value Traps and Market Bottoms

value trap vs value: Were told dividends are a must, international exposure a must, growth in emerging tecnologies/markets and best of breed a must. Since we dont know if/when the market bottoms and a MM is going to give you 2% with no upside being exposed to the market is a necessary evil. GE @32 with a .38% dividend fits the bill. JPM @ 43 and a .35% div and continues to look for buying oportunities shoud be the #1 bank when the dust settles these two will be poised for upsede potential in a good market yet still weather a down market with relative safety. Financials dangerous yes but the backing of the Fed is a wonderful thing.