Infinite loop

Is Apple's Stock Headed for a Reversal?

Since timing the market is a no win scenario in the long run, my strategy is to add to my APPL position when all is bleak and gloomy. I currently own 4500 shares ranging in price from $8, $35, $55, and most recently $83 in March. I've held since 1999 and rode 2 splits giving me most of my shares for free. Why would I sell now while Apple the company, and it's stock, is on fire? I, for one, hope it drops like a rock again so I can buy more.

If I had attempted to time the market would I be sitting on such a huge gain and enjoying making every point possible?..... I seriously doubt it. But what fun is that for an active trader such as yourself, right?

I might add that if Apple is blowing away estimates during the worst recession since 1929 what do you think will happen when the wallets actually start opening up again? And don't forget Apple's best Q is always October to December. I would be looking to add on weakness, not selling.

I wish you all the best.

Why John Dorfman's Call on Apple Is Dead Wrong

No matter how much information you garner on a company it will guarantee NOTHING in the end. Mr. Dorfman, as well as Mr. Fitnich, make the typical mistake of Information Bias. All the data mining in the world plus 5 bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbuck's. Numbers mean bubkiss, since they are all trailing indicators and never predictors of future price behavior. Just look at MSFT over the past decade for one example.

The only thing that runs the market is human emotion, period. You shouldn't care about the numbers, only the public reaction to them. An Analysts lively-hood depends on you thinking otherwise and depending on him or her for guidance. However, have you ever wondered why they are still working hard rather than not enjoying their riches in Southern France?

With that said, AAPL is a no-brainer. I'm long since 1999. Just bought my 3rd house on some of the proceeds.

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

"including the ability to stream music over the Web to a PC. The Zune can also link to a television. Apple's Touch can do neither."

My iPod Touch is doing both as I write this. Not sure where you are getting your info from, but it is quite wrong. Also, it will cost you $90 for the Zune TV adaptor, while my Apple adaptor cost $30. Moreover, I can name 70,000 things the Touch can do that the Zune will never. Therefore, my Touch can do more for less money..........Can you say "Microsoft tax"?

Time to Invest in Tech Stocks

I invested heavily in Tech in March. Im already sitting on a very large profit.

When everyone's hair is on fire it's time to buy.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

On Sep 11 01:49 PM Paul Harper wrote:

> On Sep 11 09:58 AM Jon408 wrote:
> "My only comment is that the author has not actually looked at the
> financials, because Apple's financials are not published by anyone,
>
> including Apple, in any meaningful way."
>
> best comment so far, too many Apple apologists here (as ever). No
> dividend is also a negative for me.
> If Apple can keep the management style going as & when Jobs drops
> out (I feel this will happen in the next 5 years) , they will certainly
> continue to be strong.
> However we have to look at focus, what does Apple actually want to
> be ? A device vendor, a digital media platform or a developer of
> niche products. Hard to tell right now & I find that worrisome
> to some extent.

I've made 100% on AAPL in the past 6 months. There is your dividend.

Buying Apple Today: Like Buying Microsoft in 1998?

I'm wondering how long it will take you to realize companies don't trade on Fundamentals. Since when do 100+ variables provide guidance? Did it work for MSFT investors 10 years ago?

Ever taken Statistics or Finite Math? The probability you have covered every concievable variable influencing your holding is unrealistic. And who is to say if you have covered every possible base the final result is profit.

You are only fooling yourself if you think companies trade on Fundamentals.... and you just provided the proof.

Want to know what they do trade on?........ Emotions. Nothing more.

Ignore Apple Naysayers: Look at Its Earnings

@john1940,

Stocks don't trade on P/E. Never have, and never will.

In the past 20 years I have made a killing on high P/E equities, and made very little on low ones. Proving P/E matters little, or at least has an inverse correlation.

I might note also, that Apple's profit margins are expanding, not contracting. And all during the worst recession since 1929. Im afraid your line of thinking is typical of what keeps people from owning AAPL, and missing the 100% run-up this year alone.

My New iPhone 3GS: Beyond Awesome

No offense, but the Storm is junk. Just check out all the issues on the internet it is having with poor quality control. Also, if you like MLB you really need to check out the MLB App for the iPhone. It is sick to say the least. Forget radio and actually watch the game. www.mlb.com/mobile/iphone/.

See how far behind the Storm is?


On Aug 03 11:06 AM ghopvm wrote:

> If you don't like the AT&T network, it absurd to carry two phones
> even if your company is paying for one. May I introduce you to Verizon's
> Blackberry Storm. It works like the I-Phone with less applications
> developed but that will come in time. I am very happy with all the
> basics.....web/mobile device downloads, texting, e-mails. Of course
> you can download your music. My favorite thing is to listen to the
> ballgame via MLB from out of town. Who needs a radio? As a Yankee
> fan I listen to the opposing teams audio to avoid the mistake drivin
> Yankee announcer John Sterling. That just make this better than a
> radio. Then I may also tune in the anti-Red Sox team or some music.
> I don't know what applications the i-phone has that this doesn't
> but you can't miss what you never had. Oh yeah...GPS is also available
> but I always know where I'm going...do you?

Apple Sours: Analysts Doubtful of iPhone's Prospects

I just love it when the ANALysts use words like "maybe" and " we believe" and "possibly". It gives them an out when their fortune telling runs afoul.

Watch those adjectives. They tell all.

Palm's Pre: Likely to Break

ROTFL indeed. Obviously a PALM investor suffering from endowment bias.

On May 03 12:54 PM Aryamehr wrote:

> Please remember that the Pre has raised the bar so much that the
> competition is reeling with chaos. They just don't know how to counter
> the WebOS and what the Pre will do to their bottom line. How will
> Verizon compete with Sprint when the Pre is head and shoulders superior
> to their best Smart phone, that costs at least $50 more per month
> for their 'simply everything plan?' How does ATT continue to steal
> Smart phone customers from Sprint when the Pre is launched? Isn't
> it patently obvious that if Sprint has a better Smart phone at a
> monthly cost of $50 less than comparable plans from ATT & VZ,
> that the bottom line for both these companies will be negatively
> effected. This is why Palm and Sprint have witnessed much maligned
> pervasive spin against their companies. Let's just look at why Palm
> picked Sprint. First Sprint is the only company with 4G capabilities
> and by the end of this year they will have 4G available in ten metro
> areas from Las Vegas and Portland on the West Coast to New York on
> the East Coast. At this moment neither ATT nor VZ will have anything
> to offer other than hyperbole or spin about their future 4G. On another
> note Sprint has the most reliable 3G network in the nation, according
> to indipendent surveys. Now couple this with the savings of $50 month
> and what you will have is the best Smart phone at a substantial monthly
> discount from what ATT and VZ offer. In summary, the Best smart phone,
> on the fastest and most reliable network at a substantially lower
> monthly cost. Is this not compelling enough? Now do you see why the
> spin masters are out in droves? The fact is both Palm and Sprint
> are going to do extremely well from the day the Pre is launched,
> the only question is logistics and execution.

Why I'm Investing in Michael Dell

Just read Harryd's post and wanted to comment. I teach Statistical Theory in Economics and Business, and in my class I use Dell as an example of a failing business model. When a company tries to drive growth in market share through cost cutting the eventual outcome is failure due to an inability to reduce costs indefinitely.

In the short-run Economies of Scale will create larger margins, which Dell enjoyed once upon a time. But in the long-run Returns to Scale will squeeze those once coveted margins to razor thin levels which Dell is currently faced with. How much lower can margins go and still be considered a viable business model?

Here is my question to you that I ask all my students: Where does Dell go from here?

I have yet to get a reasonable response. Thus my short in Dell and subsequent 100% ROI.

Why I'm Investing in Michael Dell

I read the title and thought it was a joke. I've been short Dell since $20. Just recently stopped out at $10 for a nice 100% gainer. As a trade Dull might be OK, but investing?

Smoking crack is very bad for you.

Apple Still Overvalued - RBC

This pretty much proves the uselessness of P/E's and analysts, now doesn't it. Considering AAPL has risen 40 points in the past month. Keep following those fundamentals guys, I'll follow the emotions and make a killing.

Thanks.

For Apple, Upside Remains

It's tough to make P/E calls, since both ends of that equation are variables and can fluctuate considerably. It also assumes a fixed point in time rather than the dynamics of variable time horizons investors have.

Biased data mining (all data mining is bias) and hopeful prognostication will lead to false assumptions in any equity. You'd expect MSFT to be a big gainer on fundamentals alone, but we all know how that story has played out over the past decade.

The only thing you need to know regarding Apple's is that their high-end-market sales are holding steady in a very negative environment. Which means when the economy turns Apple is poised for much larger earnings. And that signals a buy on any weakness in AAPL.

The Baltic Dry Index Gets Moving

Ever heard of Behavioral Finance?

There are much larger influences at work here than just the BDI.

I might add that waiting for "good investment qualities" usually means you are very late to the party. I will be selling to you when you are ready.