James Seaberg's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/162212/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/70034-why-commodities-are-likely-to-struggle-in-2008?source=feed#comment-131867 131867 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:29:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69979-the-fed-is-deflating-10-reasons-why?source=feed#comment-131845 131845 mises.org. If there are readers who are hurt by this recession and which are not economists, they probably would enjoy the very readable book The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve by G. Edward Griffin. ]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:08:58 -0400 mises.org. If there are readers who are hurt by this recession and which are not economists, they probably would enjoy the very readable book The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve by G. Edward Griffin. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69559-housing-weakness-spilling-over-to-manufacturing?source=feed#comment-130425 130425 Sun, 23 Mar 2008 22:56:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69415-burst-bubble-commodities-long-term-story-remains-intact?source=feed#comment-130077 130077
A contrarian is not always a contrarian. He follows the crowd for long periods and lets the profits run. Only before major turning points does he become a contrarian. For example when gold reaches the manic phase at around $15,000 to $20,000 and having the DOW also around $20,000 as an assumption, then he will start selling whilst most everybody else expects that gold goes to $ 30,000 or even $ 100,000.
This is not a time to stop following the early adopters of gold and the crowd that will soon come in. Yes, there is deleveraging. A lower money supply means recession a much lower money supply means depression. The Fed will stem this tide. If it doesn’t succeed, the US empire is over, done, toast. The Fed will buy, if necessary, your mortgages, your houses and your dogs and cats. He has that power. There are several executive orders in the #12,000 to #13,000 range where this power was given to the Fed shortly before Y2K (year 2000 date computer problem).

Whoever thinks that the Fed will be powerless after having reduced interest rates to 0.25% which I expect that it will do, is mistaken. In “open market operations” it can theoretically buy up each and every asset in the US and flood the country with dollars. Bernancke will not only use helicopters but also railroads to get the money to a rail station near you.

So, the smart action would be to use this pullback in gold to buy it, now. Next, I would buy down oil USO (UNITED STATES OIL FUND, LP (AMEX)) with buy-limits set at $75, 70, 65, 60. Later, when the dust has settled, I plan to buy the foods, DBA or RJA.

(Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, only my opinion. Talk to your personal advisor).
]]> Sat, 22 Mar 2008 11:02:21 -0400
A contrarian is not always a contrarian. He follows the crowd for long periods and lets the profits run. Only before major turning points does he become a contrarian. For example when gold reaches the manic phase at around $15,000 to $20,000 and having the DOW also around $20,000 as an assumption, then he will start selling whilst most everybody else expects that gold goes to $ 30,000 or even $ 100,000.
This is not a time to stop following the early adopters of gold and the crowd that will soon come in. Yes, there is deleveraging. A lower money supply means recession a much lower money supply means depression. The Fed will stem this tide. If it doesn’t succeed, the US empire is over, done, toast. The Fed will buy, if necessary, your mortgages, your houses and your dogs and cats. He has that power. There are several executive orders in the #12,000 to #13,000 range where this power was given to the Fed shortly before Y2K (year 2000 date computer problem).

Whoever thinks that the Fed will be powerless after having reduced interest rates to 0.25% which I expect that it will do, is mistaken. In “open market operations” it can theoretically buy up each and every asset in the US and flood the country with dollars. Bernancke will not only use helicopters but also railroads to get the money to a rail station near you.

So, the smart action would be to use this pullback in gold to buy it, now. Next, I would buy down oil USO (UNITED STATES OIL FUND, LP (AMEX)) with buy-limits set at $75, 70, 65, 60. Later, when the dust has settled, I plan to buy the foods, DBA or RJA.

(Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, only my opinion. Talk to your personal advisor).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69415-burst-bubble-commodities-long-term-story-remains-intact?source=feed#comment-129325 129325
The fall in commodities was also a concerted action by the Fed and its banking and brokerage minions. Foreign central banks had to buy dollars and the US banks and brokers were told to raise the margins on commodity accounts and go short. Most of the mmargins have now risen to 90% from formerly 25%! In such a way nobody could blame the Fed to have increased price inflation, even though they increased tremendously money inflation. Price inflation usually follows monetary inflation with a certain time lag. But all this money will still creep into the economy and create in the US and worldwide further price inflation. That means the bull market in precious metals and the food complex is by far not over.

In my opinion, we have seen the lows at least in gold. I doubt it will go to 880$ as forecast by some analysts. These prices are buying opportunities. So why not buy today some and next week more.
]]> Thu, 20 Mar 2008 11:23:24 -0400
The fall in commodities was also a concerted action by the Fed and its banking and brokerage minions. Foreign central banks had to buy dollars and the US banks and brokers were told to raise the margins on commodity accounts and go short. Most of the mmargins have now risen to 90% from formerly 25%! In such a way nobody could blame the Fed to have increased price inflation, even though they increased tremendously money inflation. Price inflation usually follows monetary inflation with a certain time lag. But all this money will still creep into the economy and create in the US and worldwide further price inflation. That means the bull market in precious metals and the food complex is by far not over.

In my opinion, we have seen the lows at least in gold. I doubt it will go to 880$ as forecast by some analysts. These prices are buying opportunities. So why not buy today some and next week more.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68243-goldman-s-200-oil-call-and-the-hurricane-premium-theory?source=feed#comment-127385 127385 Sun, 16 Mar 2008 22:16:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68580-should-oil-be-trading-at-60-or-150?source=feed#comment-127378 127378 mises.org are very illuminating. Under a central-bank-system prices rise always. It is the pupose of a central bank to make sure that nobody escapes total confiscation. That is what we see. Enjoy it.]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 22:02:35 -0400 mises.org are very illuminating. Under a central-bank-system prices rise always. It is the pupose of a central bank to make sure that nobody escapes total confiscation. That is what we see. Enjoy it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68664-ladies-and-gentlemen-here-s-gold-at-1000?source=feed#comment-127369 127369 Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:46:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68669-metal-miners-benefit-as-power-shortages-force-platinum-prices-higher?source=feed#comment-127364 127364
Parallel to gold, platinum will go much higher. The Russians take also very good care of the platinum price and hold back supply when the price plunges. Platinum is a clear buy!
]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:42:17 -0400
Parallel to gold, platinum will go much higher. The Russians take also very good care of the platinum price and hold back supply when the price plunges. Platinum is a clear buy!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68641-the-new-pillars-of-inflation?source=feed#comment-127360 127360
In reference to the “disinflation brought about by the fall in house prices will temper these inflationary pillars in the short-term.” I may add that house prices are not part of the Consumer Price Index of the USA (CPI); rentals are. Also, the CPI is falsified. To get a correct picture of the true inflation in the US, please refer to shadowstats.com. The inflation rate is much higher. That’s why the article’s author is so successful.

If we experience a bust in the US and a knock-on bust in China, I’m not so sure, whether the industrial commodities like copper, etc. will hold up in price. I think they will tank. Foods, oil and gold will hold up much better.
]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:29:57 -0400
In reference to the “disinflation brought about by the fall in house prices will temper these inflationary pillars in the short-term.” I may add that house prices are not part of the Consumer Price Index of the USA (CPI); rentals are. Also, the CPI is falsified. To get a correct picture of the true inflation in the US, please refer to shadowstats.com. The inflation rate is much higher. That’s why the article’s author is so successful.

If we experience a bust in the US and a knock-on bust in China, I’m not so sure, whether the industrial commodities like copper, etc. will hold up in price. I think they will tank. Foods, oil and gold will hold up much better.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68616-the-big-whoosh-is-this-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-127348 127348
I have seen Herb a few times on CNBC. I can hardly believe that he doesn’t know. Many at CNBC know but I can see it in their faces that they are not allowed to talk about the secret. Our problem is etatism, socialism, interventionism, the central bank and the fraudulent fractional banking system. Our solution would be genuine unhampered markets. We will have it in 100 to 200 years after 90% of mankind has been wiped out. It’s a slow learning process and mankind needs many catastrophes not to fall anymore for the glib fast-talkers of officialdom. I wish everybody lots of good luck .You will need it in order to survive.
]]> Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:00:15 -0400
I have seen Herb a few times on CNBC. I can hardly believe that he doesn’t know. Many at CNBC know but I can see it in their faces that they are not allowed to talk about the secret. Our problem is etatism, socialism, interventionism, the central bank and the fraudulent fractional banking system. Our solution would be genuine unhampered markets. We will have it in 100 to 200 years after 90% of mankind has been wiped out. It’s a slow learning process and mankind needs many catastrophes not to fall anymore for the glib fast-talkers of officialdom. I wish everybody lots of good luck .You will need it in order to survive.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68541-import-prices-and-retail-sales-two-more-clues-about-the-future?source=feed#comment-126693 126693 shadowstats.com, we will find that the retailers and food sellers shipped 10% less goods out of the door than last year (13% p.a. inflation minus 3 % higher nominal sales). That means the consumer bought 10% fewer goods than last year. Now, if that is not a recession!]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 17:27:45 -0400 shadowstats.com, we will find that the retailers and food sellers shipped 10% less goods out of the door than last year (13% p.a. inflation minus 3 % higher nominal sales). That means the consumer bought 10% fewer goods than last year. Now, if that is not a recession!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68452-gold-dollar-ratio-goes-parabolic?source=feed#comment-126687 126687 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 17:16:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68548-global-oil-shock-rattles-world-stock-markets?source=feed#comment-126681 126681 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 17:06:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68215-interest-rates-fated-to-rise?source=feed#comment-126665 126665 shadowstats.com from the yield of the fixed rate debt.]]> Fri, 14 Mar 2008 16:35:15 -0400 shadowstats.com from the yield of the fixed rate debt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68271-investing-in-russia-an-interview-with-pharos-peter-halloran?source=feed#comment-126651 126651 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 16:07:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68345-thursday-outlook-metals-commodities-international?source=feed#comment-126643 126643 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 15:45:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67706-plunging-dollar-erodes-foreign-investors-returns?source=feed#comment-124501 124501 Sun, 09 Mar 2008 23:21:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67663-5-reasons-why-the-u-s-dollar-will-weaken-further?source=feed#comment-124492 124492 Sun, 09 Mar 2008 22:59:44 -0400