James Seaberg

Import Prices and Retail Sales: Two More Clues About the Future

If we discount the retail/food service sales of the above chart by the "true" inflation calculated in the shadowstats.com, we will find that the retailers and food sellers shipped 10% less goods out of the door than last year (13% p.a. inflation minus 3 % higher nominal sales). That means the consumer bought 10% fewer goods than last year. Now, if that is not a recession!

Interest Rates Fated to Rise?

Gold will do well as long as we have negative real interest rates. Just deduct the inflation rate of shadowstats.com from the yield of the fixed rate debt.