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Bob Carl

Bob Carl
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  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]

    A company's proved reserves must be audited by an independent reserve valuation consultant and be reported annually to the SEC on Form 10-K. So you do have a fair amount of oversight. Obviously, "current conditions" imply some leeway as production costs vary greatly as do pricing assumptions.
    Feb 23, 2015. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]
    Proved reserves are that portion of oil in place that are economic to produce under current conditions.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]
    That's their plan and investors should take note of it. I do.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon-for-BP deal speculated in WSJ article [View news story]
    Very true. I was a CEO of an healthcare company and also served as a director of an independent oil producer and a bank holding company. In all cases, responsible management had contingency plans for all types of scenarios. We were not deer caught in headlights. Of course, it takes time to adjust to rapidly changing events, and that creates uncertainty, but also value for investors.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Still Resilient In The Face Of Adversity [View article]
    I totally agree. The best thing to do with XOM is to buy it time with its DRIP program.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon-for-BP deal speculated in WSJ article [View news story]
    I respectfully disagree with most of the comments on this page. BP is a wounded company with great assets and legal liabilities hurt but rarely sink companies of this size (look at the tobacco companies). XOM can buy BP with treasury stock, achieve reasonable synergies, and pay off the liabilities with enhanced cash flow. What are now BP's understated environmental liabilities will become a more realistic goodwill entry on XOM's books. I own 20,000 XOM, 10,000 BP, so I am effectively neutral. If XOM overpays, I am hurt there, but I would exit BP at a nice profit Maybe it's not relevant, but by buying BP, XOM (Standard Oil) reunites three old Standard Companies (AMOCO or Standard Oil Company (Indiana), SOHIO (Standard Oil Company (Ohio), ARCO or Atlantic Refining Company. This plus their previous acquisition of Mobil Oil (Standard Oil Company (New York), Vacuum Oil Company), would leave only Chevron (Standard Oil Company of California), of the major Standard spinoffs independent. If oil remains more plentiful, then Rockefeller's old monopoly strategy and owning more downstream assets remains as valid today as in the late 19th century. I think history will repeat itself.
    Feb 12, 2015. 06:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon cut to Hold from Buy at Argus, which cites worry about overreach [View news story]
    XOM's management will surely make acquisitions but not overpay in this environment. They don't need to.
    Feb 9, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Big Warning Signs [View article]
    Long PM. Long experience (40+ years in investing) as well as 13 years experience as a NYSE company CEO tells me that over the long run, flucuations in currencies even out. PM may have to suffer in the shortrun, but I know they will be just fine in the long run.
    Feb 5, 2015. 01:38 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: There Will Be Blood [View article]
    I continue buying XOM. If the price rises because investors start discounting a rise in oil prices, I make money. If XOM falls, I buy more shares and have a higher yield on those shares.

    XOM is not going out of business. I can sleep at night.

    What more can I say?
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Like Exxon Mobil While Others Don't [View article]
    Dead right.
    Jan 26, 2015. 04:19 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon, other oil names downgraded at Credit Suisse [View news story]
    Profound insight. Thanks Credit Suisse.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    Good point. My objective for XOM is 6-7% total annual return over the next ten years. Not great, but at my age and stage in life, preserving capital is paramount and yet I see no reason to own bonds. At least XOM should provide some upside protection when deflation ends and inflation resumes although the present value of (hopefully higher) cash flows will be less in an inflationary environment.
    Jan 21, 2015. 03:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: Slow But Steady, Value Erosion Is Underway [View article]
    I am still buying XOM: control over 20,000 shares now. Sure, I would rather be paying $65 instead of $90, but I buy for these reasons:

    1. Downstream and chemical earnings will partially offset cyclically poor upstream earnings.

    2. Management can reduce the rate of capital expenditures to offset declining cash flows. I assume management is not oblivious to this issue.

    3. Volume entitlement effects tend to increase XOM's share of production as oil prices decline. This is relatively modest, but it does help.

    4. Share repurchases are optional. I expect them to be eliminated or greatly reduced. The company will be more careful in how it allocates cash. Priorities will be keeping the dividend steady and free up cash for acquisitions of producing properties from distressed sellers.

    5. While cash levels are low, XOM can borrow many billions in low cost long term funds at historically low interest rates.

    6. Oil prices, while mostly inelastic, are not totally so. Low prices will increase demand while suppressing supply. There is no law of nature that mandates oil in the $40/bbl range forever.

    7. I expect XOM to make a major acquisition (using treasury shares) of a large integrated oil company. I think it might well be BP. The synergies of such a merger will be profound.

    Finally, 40+ years on investing experience has proven to me that buying good companies when prospects look grim is the most rewarding approach to investing.
    Jan 21, 2015. 02:14 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon: Time To Buy As Oil Crashes Hard? [View article]
    XOM's DRIP has no fees at all. All costs are paid by the company and are treated as dividend income on Form 1099.
    Jan 9, 2015. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Dividends threatened at global oil majors [View news story]
    Standard Oil Company (New Jersey) (i.e. Exxon Mobil) has paid dividends consistently since its incorporation in 1882. Predecessors Standard Oil Trust and Standard Oil Company (Ohio) paid dividends from 1870. In the middle of the Great Depression though, SONJ cut its dividend from $2/share (not-split adjusted) to $1.25/share. The dividend was restored to $2/share in 1936, then reduced again in 1938-1939 to an annual rate of $1.25 share. By 1941, the dividend was $2.50/share, then reduced in 1942-43 to $2/share. In 1948, the dividend was cut from $4/share to $2/share, but restored to $4/share in 1949. That was the last time the dividend was cut. An observation: management worked hard to quickly restore the dividend whenever it was cut.
    Jan 9, 2015. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment