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Bob Carl

Bob Carl
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  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    In 1986 oil went for around $10/bbl, so adjusting for inflation, $21.78 is the inflation adjusted price for 2015.

    Who knows? But remember, markets turn at the point of absolute pessimism and we are not far off.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:05 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • All Hail Kocherlakota! [View article]
    I totally agree. The Fed, like the French Generals prior to WW II, is insistent at fighting the last war. Where in hell is the inflation they are so scared of? Commodity prices are in a free fall - not exactly a sign of inflationary excess. The Fed wants to be able to have tools to conduct monetay policy and feels that it lacks the ability to cut interest rates if necessary in a recession so it wants to raise interest rates now which will cause that very recession! Idiotic at best.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inflationary Expectations And Federal Reserve Expectations [View article]
    Commodity prices are in a giant downdraft that is persisting. Like the French Generals at the start of WW II, the Fed is fighting their ancient war against inflation. Problem is, there being no inflation, if the Fed raises rates to fight this spectre then rising real rates will cool economic expansion.

    Perhaps, our current economy can be best compared with that of the "Gilded Age", the latter part of the 19th century. Then, as now, new technologies (steel, railroads, electricity, petroleum products, telegraph and telephone) were driving economic growth. With the money supply expanding by less than GNP growth, deflation ruled. Inequalities of wealth (like today) became profound. Today, the new technologies driving down costs are fracking and horizon drilling opening up vast new supplies of oil and gas, the rise of software- information enterprises (Google, Uber, Amazon) challenging traditional retailers, and I could go on and on.

    Bottom line: until we actually see inflation, we should not fear or fight it.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal's Active Approach Helps Overcome Challenges [View article]
    ACI is history, or at least its equity is. There could be some value in the bonds if bought between $5-$10 (5 cents/10 cents on the dollar) and assuming ACI makes another interest payment or two.

    I will give ACI management credit for fighting hard. But they are facing overwhelming odds and the chances of a Chapter 11 filing within a year are about 99 to 1.
    Aug 11, 2015. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: It's All About Free Cash Flow [View article]
    I think it is safe to say that all markets go through their bull and bear phases. Oil is certainly no exception. Assuming oil remains at, say $50-$60/bbl for many years, the inevitable response of XOM would be first to eliminate all buybacks (saving $2 billion/year at the current rate), then cut another 20-30% in capital expenditures (saving $6-$9 billion/year), then freeze the dividend at its current levels. Taking these steps keeps the company cash flow neutral. Some growth could come from expanding production, possibly better natural gas pricing, chemicals and refining. Exxon could last a long time in this state. Can its competitors? The stock would sell to yield 5-6% or $50-$60.

    I think the smart money is discounting this into the stock price now. I remain a buyer as the smart money is often wrong and moves no more intelligently than a herd of ruminants.
    Aug 9, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PH Glatfelter - Key Takeaways From Q2 Results [View article]
    As a long time student of GLT, I fully concur.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PH Glatfelter: Steady As They Come [View article]
    Good company, competent management. I owned 225,000 shares years ago. Made good money. Start buying at these levels, add more at $17.50, much more at $15.
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil: It's All About Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Standard Oil, i.e. Has been around for 145 years. They have the best management in the industry. They will take advantage of others' distress. They can always halt the buybacks if necessary. They have a AAA credit rating and could add about $33 billion to debt and stay within that rating.

    I see XOM making a huge contracyclical acquisition within the next 12 months.
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge weighs environmental groups’ standing in Exxon New Jersey case [View news story]
    The judge will rule the plaintiff-intervenors have no standing to intervene in the case. If otherwise, the judge will be reversed on appeal.

    It's far too late for third parties, not otherwise involved in a case, to claim standing prior to court approval of a negotiated settlement.
    Jul 11, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Buy The Exxon Dip [View article]
    I suppose you will be a buyer three years or so from now when oil is $80/bbl, and XOM will be over $120. The time to buy is now through disciplined tranches. You can't pick the bottom. I have over 20,000 XOM and I buy every other week.
    Jul 8, 2015. 07:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From A Lower Starting Point, Magellan Midstream Looks More Interesting [View article]
    MMP is falling because it moves in tandem with energy prices and inversely to interest rates. But how low will it go? Assuming a 6% yield on a $3.20 estimated partnership distribution over the next 12 months, one could reasonably expect MMP to sell for $53.33/share.

    I am long over 60,000 shares purchased years ago. I am not selling because the tax costs would be onerous. I have thought MMP was overvalued and it probably still is. But it's a great company.

    Conclusion: if you don't own it, think about buying when it drops another 20 points or so.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Might Not Be The Bottom, But The Time To Buy Chesapeake Is Now [View article]
    Chesapeake bears please explain why Chairman Archie Dunham, retired Chairman and CEO of Conoco Phillips bought 500,000 shares at $23.20 on 11-14-2014 and then another 1,000,000 shares at $13.98 on 03-27-2015?

    I have been the Chairman and CEO of a successful public company and have served on two other public company boards. I can tell all of you that directors are privy to far more information than public shareholders. Relevant too is that Dunham is 76 years old and has been a oilman since joining Conoco in 1966, 49 years ago. If, as the bears here proclaim, CHK is headed for Chapter 11, why would Dunham invest another $26 million into the stock? I can only presume that he has confidence in management and management's abilities to master a difficult situation. Could it be that he might know more about the company he chairs than the local bears? Or is he a senile old man whose investment in CHK is reckless and idiotic?

    My opinion is that Dunham was obviously early in his recent purchases but that he more likely than not knows what he is doing.
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:35 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schweitzer-Mauduit: Does It Have All The Right Papers? [View article]
    Good, insightful article. SWM has never been shareholder friendly.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tompkins Financial Corporation: An Exceptional Financial Institution With The Stock Price Of An Average Bank [View article]
    Fine article. Fine Company. I am glad to be a major holder of this well managed company.
    Jun 17, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Magellan Midstream shifts sights to trading oil for first time [View news story]
    I am a large holder of MMP and am ambivalent about this. I understand the possibility of gain, and oil trading is common enough, but MMP works well as is. Why inject a large element of black swan risk? I don't need some eventual rogue trader messing with my substantial equity in MMP.
    Jun 17, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment