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Bob Carl

Bob Carl
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  • Exxon needs "another Mobil" to boost shareholder value, analyst says [View news story]
    It will be BP.
    Nov 30, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck declares $0.46 dividend [View news story]
    Keeps pace with inflation.
    Nov 24, 2015. 02:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - Expect A Turnaround [View article]
    My God, get your facts right before publishing!
    Nov 14, 2015. 02:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magellan Midstream Partners: A Leading Investment In The Energy Sector [View article]
    Listen to the conference call or read a transcript thereof. It's all detailed. One of the main drivers is MMP's refined products pipeline which shipped higher volumes (due to increased demand caused by lower gasoline prices) at a 4.6% tariff increase.
    Nov 4, 2015. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) Michael N. Mears on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Wonderful quarter from a great company. It doesn't get much better than this and the question is: how long does it last?
    Nov 3, 2015. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - Free Cash Flow Does Not Cover The Dividend [View article]
    I ran a successful public company and I can tell you that good management is not static. Assuming so is a mistaken often made by analysts and investors. It is not a deer caught in the headlights. Look for XOM to continue to reduce capital expenditures and restore net free cash flow. I'm the meantime, as Rex Tillerson said, "We might lean on the balance sheet."
    Nov 3, 2015. 06:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Will Be Bankrupt Before The End Of 2015 [View article]
    J Mintzmeyer,

    That was my idea too: get some interest payments then $5-10 in reorganization. Alas, coal prices haven't steadied.
    Nov 2, 2015. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Will Be Bankrupt Before The End Of 2015 [View article]
    The date of the Chapter 11 filing will be November 9, 2015. Why this date? Because ACI has announced it will release earnings on that date. Traditionally, ACI releases 3rd quarter on or before the end of September. My guess is that ACI management is trying hard to arrange debtor in possession (DIP) financing for the filing.

    I am long $1.1 million of the 8% 2019 debentures, bought earlier this year after ACI had a better than expected 1st quarter. It waa a bet that coal prices would firm or at least stop declining as capacity shrank. Unfortunately, demand shrank even more. It was a mistake.

    As an attorney, I think we unsecured creditors and stockholders have an equitable argument that the senior term loan lenders tortuously prevented ACI's management from implmenting a debt compromise to our detriment. Such a claim may get some traction and might lead to concessions from the term loan lenders.

    I expect to get something for my unsecured bonds if only because ACI will be given a hiatus in debt service during the Chapter 11 process and will build cash. If coal prices turn within the expected 12-24 months of the bankrupcy period, there may be some value for unsecured creditors, but probably nothing for shareholders.
    Nov 1, 2015. 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why Exxon's AAA Credit Rating Is In Jeopardy [View article]
    I understand the financial metrics involved and, based solely thereon, XOM could lose AAA status. Say it is were marked down to AA+ or AA; there is little impact.

    Over the very long run, The Standard Oil Company, now ExxonMobil, has weathered far worse times. Its management philosophies and conservatism go back to Founder John D. Rockefeller himself. Will those intangibles make a difference? Historically, they have and I am betting they will today too. This is what makes investing as much an art as a science.
    Oct 27, 2015. 09:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil And Chevron: Swirling, Swirling, Swirling [View article]
    Regarding XOM, focus on cash flows. Companies pay dividends, buy stock, and make cap ex out of cash flows, not earnings. Depreciation and depletion are huge sources of cash for XOM and act as an anchor to stabilize cash flows.
    Oct 25, 2015. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Exxon Be Able To Weather The Storm? [View article]
    The model assumes Exxon does nothing with its free cash flows. That is a rather naive and flawed assumption. Likewise, the conventional 10% discount rate used in this sort of analysis is outdated. It is a relic of an era when significantly higher interest rates were the norm. I think 7.5% is a much more realistic discount rate to apply to high quality equity cash flows in the present deflationary environment.

    I remain a biweekly buyer of Exxon.
    Oct 21, 2015. 07:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Penn West Petroleum Can Deliver More Upside [View article]
    PWE may survive but they are in a continuous downward spiral where they will have to continue selling off producing assets to satisfy their creditors. What will be left when oil prices only recover in 7-10 years will be a shell.

    Now, if oil prices recover in 2-3 years, PWE might just be buy now. I think it is fairly priced.
    Oct 18, 2015. 09:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magellan Midstream Partners Is Still A Good Buy [View article]
    Excuse me, but you literally have no idea of what you are writing about. You should take another look at MMP's second quarter 2015 results. It appears you are reading 2014's results as 2015's! Earnings from non-consolidated entities were up from $1,955 MM to $24,542 MM, not down.. And the same was true for operating profit and net income, up 14 and 17% respectively.

    If you are going to be paid to write a Seeking Alpha article, at least take the time to carefully read a company's financial statement, otherwise, you are wasting readers' time.
    Oct 16, 2015. 10:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Potential End Of An Era For Exxon, But What Does The Smart Money Think? [View article]
    Sort of like when S&P downgraded the United States. A lot of sound and fury signifying absolutely nothing.
    Oct 6, 2015. 06:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assets Matter - The Speculative Case For Penn West [View article]
    They might survive, but probably not on terms to your liking. There will be a major reverse split, maybe 1:20, then a sale of new equity. Current stockholders might own 5-10% of the company.
    Oct 3, 2015. 06:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment