Seeking Alpha

Bob Carl

Bob Carl
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Bob Carl's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Despite Exxon Bumping Up Your Dividend In April, It Is Not A Buy [View article]
    Look for XOM to raise the dividend to $0.72 from $0.69, an increase of 4.35% being a real increase (after inflation of about 1.7%) of 2.65%. This will cost the company about $500 million a year in increased cash payout, which they can easily finance. I would expect similar annual increases for the next several years as the company deals with lower oil prices.

    Also, look for improved profits from downstream and chemicals to partially offset the impact of cyclically low upstream earnings in the first quarter.

    I am still buying XOM.
    Apr 13, 2015. 09:43 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Gamble On Arch Coal [View article]
    I am long the senior unsecured debt. I have a 48% current yield good for about two years. If ACI fails, I have an unsecured claim that might be worth 10-20 cents on the dollar. If at 10, and assuming bankruptcy in December, 2017, then I breakeven. If they can starve off bankruptcy until mid 2018, I make a little more money, if coal markets improve and they an pay my 2019 bonds at maturity I make 4x my money back. That's what I call an asymetrical bet and one anyone can make. I would totally avoid the stock.

    What can go wrong? They can declare bankruptcy much sooner than 12/17, but I doubt that given their debt maturities are minimal until their secured bank debt matures 05-16-2018.
    Mar 16, 2015. 10:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still not time to buy Exxon or other big energy stocks, analyst says [View news story]
    Dale,

    There were many times in the history of the Standard Oil Company when "there is no value here" would have been applicable. I have studied this since I was 19 (I am 61 now). Some examples:

    1911 - The Supreme Court's Breakup Decree. This proved to be the greatest buying opportunity when SO's stock decreased by about 60%.

    1932 - The Great Depression. Standard Oil cuts it dividend by about 40%.

    Much more recently, and when I was a young investor - 1973-1974 - the Arab oil embargo, the power of OPEC, and the nationalization (really confiscation) of ARAMCO and other foreign holdings. I remember that the consensus on the Street was that the great international oil companies would become little more than utilities. I bought Standard Oil Company of California (now Chevron) back then because it was dirt cheap. So was Standard Oil (New Jersey) (Exxon) and Mobil, also Texaco, Gulf, and Shell.
    And guess what? In the context of the times, the analysts were right, there was no value there...but only if these companies continued with their old structures and operational strategies. Good managers are not deer caught in headlights, and all of those companies found ways to adapt to the new era - some by merging into stronger competitors, others by buying synergies. CVX and XOM were the principal winners and their returns from the mid 1970s have been profound.

    I buy XOM today because in the scheme of risk adjusted returns it looks reasonably valued in light of longer term opportunity. In the meantime, as a retired investor, the dividend is attractive in a low yield world. I buy XOM because I have confidence that come what may, XOM management will adapt and prosper. I suspect that in the short run, the stock will drop, but I am not able to forecast an absolute low. So I buy regularly. If XOM drops to $65 between now and 01/2017, I will be put 5,000 shares at that price, less put premium. My overall target is to acquire up to 30,000 XOM over the next 5 years and then watch it recover.

    Bob
    Mar 14, 2015. 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still not time to buy Exxon or other big energy stocks, analyst says [View news story]
    Is the time to buy is whenever things look great? Well, that is the conventional wisdom. For me, with 40+ years in investment experience and having run and sold a successful public company, I say if you want to beat the market in the long run, the only way is be a contrarian and buy when good companies are cheap due to temporary difficulties. So, I keep buying XOM and I pick up a decent, secure yield while I wait for the inevitable turn. CVX and COP are good values as is BP which may well be an acquisition target.
    Mar 11, 2015. 10:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Every Savvy Oil E&P CEO Should Consider Now: Buying Penn Virginia [View article]
    For whatever it is worth, the long term history of PVA is dismal. This company goes back to the Leisenring anthracite coal operations in the late 19th century. Maybe it did well then, but as a public company, it has never returned much. It's price is the same as 30 years ago: check it out.

    I have owned it in its oil phase, and I do agree, they have some small, but very good Eagle Ford plays. The company should be sold.
    Mar 11, 2015. 12:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia Is Exxon Mobil's Future, And The Future Is Bright [View article]
    While bullish on XOM and while I respect their long term strategy, doing business in Russia remains problematical. The rule of law just doesn't exit in Russia. Perhaps in a post-Putin Russia, it might. Of course XOM is more or less immortal while Putin is not! We will see if XOM's patience pays off.
    Mar 5, 2015. 06:43 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Shares Of Exxon Mobil [View article]
    I totally disagree. Great companies take advantage of industry recessions to establish firm foundations for future growth. Exxon and its predecessors have always done this in the past. I see no reason why this time is different.
    Mar 4, 2015. 11:22 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy - A Soft End To 2014 And A Dampened Outlook For 2015 [View article]
    Total agreement. I had sold CHK at a nice profit some time ago, recently reentered by buying 5,000 shares at $16.95. Will buy more too.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon needs $85 oil to cover capex and dividend, Oppenheimer says [View news story]
    The Oppenheimer analyst must assume that XOM's management is like a deer caught in the headlights. The Deutsche Bank analyst seems more understanding that management is responsive to both near term challenges and long term opportunities.
    Mar 3, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]

    A company's proved reserves must be audited by an independent reserve valuation consultant and be reported annually to the SEC on Form 10-K. So you do have a fair amount of oversight. Obviously, "current conditions" imply some leeway as production costs vary greatly as do pricing assumptions.
    Feb 23, 2015. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]
    Proved reserves are that portion of oil in place that are economic to produce under current conditions.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon adds proven reserves totaling 1.5B boe [View news story]
    That's their plan and investors should take note of it. I do.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon-for-BP deal speculated in WSJ article [View news story]
    Very true. I was a CEO of an healthcare company and also served as a director of an independent oil producer and a bank holding company. In all cases, responsible management had contingency plans for all types of scenarios. We were not deer caught in headlights. Of course, it takes time to adjust to rapidly changing events, and that creates uncertainty, but also value for investors.
    Feb 14, 2015. 07:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil Still Resilient In The Face Of Adversity [View article]
    I totally agree. The best thing to do with XOM is to buy it time with its DRIP program.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon-for-BP deal speculated in WSJ article [View news story]
    I respectfully disagree with most of the comments on this page. BP is a wounded company with great assets and legal liabilities hurt but rarely sink companies of this size (look at the tobacco companies). XOM can buy BP with treasury stock, achieve reasonable synergies, and pay off the liabilities with enhanced cash flow. What are now BP's understated environmental liabilities will become a more realistic goodwill entry on XOM's books. I own 20,000 XOM, 10,000 BP, so I am effectively neutral. If XOM overpays, I am hurt there, but I would exit BP at a nice profit Maybe it's not relevant, but by buying BP, XOM (Standard Oil) reunites three old Standard Companies (AMOCO or Standard Oil Company (Indiana), SOHIO (Standard Oil Company (Ohio), ARCO or Atlantic Refining Company. This plus their previous acquisition of Mobil Oil (Standard Oil Company (New York), Vacuum Oil Company), would leave only Chevron (Standard Oil Company of California), of the major Standard spinoffs independent. If oil remains more plentiful, then Rockefeller's old monopoly strategy and owning more downstream assets remains as valid today as in the late 19th century. I think history will repeat itself.
    Feb 12, 2015. 06:56 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
241 Comments
529 Likes