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Bob Carl

Bob Carl
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  • Exxon Mobil: It's All About Free Cash Flow [View article]
    Standard Oil, i.e. Has been around for 145 years. They have the best management in the industry. They will take advantage of others' distress. They can always halt the buybacks if necessary. They have a AAA credit rating and could add about $33 billion to debt and stay within that rating.

    I see XOM making a huge contracyclical acquisition within the next 12 months.
    Jul 23, 2015. 03:45 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Judge weighs environmental groups’ standing in Exxon New Jersey case [View news story]
    The judge will rule the plaintiff-intervenors have no standing to intervene in the case. If otherwise, the judge will be reversed on appeal.

    It's far too late for third parties, not otherwise involved in a case, to claim standing prior to court approval of a negotiated settlement.
    Jul 11, 2015. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Not Buy The Exxon Dip [View article]
    I suppose you will be a buyer three years or so from now when oil is $80/bbl, and XOM will be over $120. The time to buy is now through disciplined tranches. You can't pick the bottom. I have over 20,000 XOM and I buy every other week.
    Jul 8, 2015. 07:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • From A Lower Starting Point, Magellan Midstream Looks More Interesting [View article]
    MMP is falling because it moves in tandem with energy prices and inversely to interest rates. But how low will it go? Assuming a 6% yield on a $3.20 estimated partnership distribution over the next 12 months, one could reasonably expect MMP to sell for $53.33/share.

    I am long over 60,000 shares purchased years ago. I am not selling because the tax costs would be onerous. I have thought MMP was overvalued and it probably still is. But it's a great company.

    Conclusion: if you don't own it, think about buying when it drops another 20 points or so.
    Jul 1, 2015. 04:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Might Not Be The Bottom, But The Time To Buy Chesapeake Is Now [View article]
    Chesapeake bears please explain why Chairman Archie Dunham, retired Chairman and CEO of Conoco Phillips bought 500,000 shares at $23.20 on 11-14-2014 and then another 1,000,000 shares at $13.98 on 03-27-2015?

    I have been the Chairman and CEO of a successful public company and have served on two other public company boards. I can tell all of you that directors are privy to far more information than public shareholders. Relevant too is that Dunham is 76 years old and has been a oilman since joining Conoco in 1966, 49 years ago. If, as the bears here proclaim, CHK is headed for Chapter 11, why would Dunham invest another $26 million into the stock? I can only presume that he has confidence in management and management's abilities to master a difficult situation. Could it be that he might know more about the company he chairs than the local bears? Or is he a senile old man whose investment in CHK is reckless and idiotic?

    My opinion is that Dunham was obviously early in his recent purchases but that he more likely than not knows what he is doing.
    Jun 26, 2015. 01:35 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schweitzer-Mauduit: Does It Have All The Right Papers? [View article]
    Good, insightful article. SWM has never been shareholder friendly.
    Jun 23, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tompkins Financial Corporation: An Exceptional Financial Institution With The Stock Price Of An Average Bank [View article]
    Fine article. Fine Company. I am glad to be a major holder of this well managed company.
    Jun 17, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Magellan Midstream shifts sights to trading oil for first time [View news story]
    I am a large holder of MMP and am ambivalent about this. I understand the possibility of gain, and oil trading is common enough, but MMP works well as is. Why inject a large element of black swan risk? I don't need some eventual rogue trader messing with my substantial equity in MMP.
    Jun 17, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate 'Get Paid While You Wait' Investment Strategy For The Turnaround In The Coal Industry [View article]
    Most large corporate bankrupcies are voluntary and often occur about 6 to 12 months before cash is totally exhausted. The "noise" I spoke of relates to procedural delaying and obstructing tactics available to junior creditors' counsel. Remember, the senior creditors get nothing until the plan of reorganization is finally adjudicated by the bankruptcy court. Time=Money and so compromises are often the order of the day. Many factors intervene: the temperment of the judge, the relative abilities of counsel, the number of creditor classes (the complexity of the capital structure) and so on.

    Although an attorney, I have never practiced in the bankruptcy area and nothing herein should be considered legal advice.
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate 'Get Paid While You Wait' Investment Strategy For The Turnaround In The Coal Industry [View article]
    I am an attorney by training and understand that lien priorities notwithstanding, junior creditors can make enough "noise" or static in a bankruptcy proceeding, that they ultimately receive more than what one would expect.

    As a former CEO of a public company, I know that cash flow, cash burn and cash are king. By making assumptions about cash burn, based on reported financial statements and disclosed debt maturities, I can estimate how long a company can stay alive.

    I get ideas from a number of sources: I have a Bloomberg, I read the financial press, have contacts in the financial and investment communities. I have made my share of mistakes, but over 40 years in doing this have performed better than most professionals.

    There is no guaranty on these risky ACI bonds, but I know management is playing for time and there is a possiblity that works. Coal is dying, but not totally dead yet. Maybe there will be enough mine closures in the next two years to help firm up coal prices. It's unlikely, but not impossible, and I have a pretty good idea that I make enough in interest payments to breakeven over the next 2.5 years.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate 'Get Paid While You Wait' Investment Strategy For The Turnaround In The Coal Industry [View article]
    Well, as it turns out I am a multimillionare (self-made through founding and selling a public company) and I can afford a total loss on these bonds without much ado. But they won't be a total loss because I already have received my first interest coupon and expect to receive a few more before ACI's Chapter 11 filing.

    I considered the junior lien bonds, but felt that on an IRR basis, assuming a 10% recovery on the unsecured bonds, that the junior lien bonds were overpriced.
    Jun 16, 2015. 12:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ultimate 'Get Paid While You Wait' Investment Strategy For The Turnaround In The Coal Industry [View article]
    Good analysis. I did the same and am long $1.2 million par of this very issue. I invested several weeks ago at a slightly higher price and believe that ACI will file in late 2018 or early 2019. I believe the bonds, being junior to senior secured debt and to 2nd lien bonds will be worth about 10 (10 cents on the dollar).

    The coal industry is dying, but there is often more money to made in buying debt of dying companies than one would suppose. I did it years ago with airline bonds and asbestos related bonds. You just have to buy right.

    Good luck!
    Jun 15, 2015. 02:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Glatfelter Has To Do Better [View article]
    I have followed GLT since the early 1990s and I had 225,000 shares at one point. I made good money. It is a conservative, well run company in a tough business. There are no magic answers here, just block and tackling. Ultimately, the company should be sold if the right purchaser appears.

    Also, they have sold the bulk of their best timberlands.
    Jun 11, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pengrowth Is A Safe Play On Oil [View article]
    I sold my last of several hundred thousand shares at $3. Why? Because having held this company since the early 1990's, I have watched it destroy capital - mine, yours, and all shareholders.

    I held my shares until now because of expectations of Lindbergh adding materially to cash flow. That is no longer likely. Lindbergh breaks even around $50 WTI and its heavy crude sells at a discount, With OPEC committed to oil prices in today's range, with more shale oil available at whim, with gas prices down, I could no longer make a case for holding PGH. I will have the benefit of tax losses, but nothing more.
    Jun 8, 2015. 01:02 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal Ready To Surprise [View article]
    Agreed. Management would not be keen to enter Chapter 11. Far better to arrange some sort of voluntary restructuring with creditors. Playing for time makes sense: coal markets could improve as capacity is taken out and ACI could show better numbers. Refinancing or restructuring in an improving coal market works for all parties in interest.
    Jun 2, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment