TheRealBull

22 Comments

    • 5 Reasons Why the $700B Bailout Could Translate to $250 Oil [view article]
      Demand destruction at $200 a barrel oil here...sure...

      But I would contend that any destruction here will be easily picked up by China, India, and other industrializing countries.

      It is as simple as....

      We are broke. They are not.       Oct 01 11:18 AM
    • Bear Market In Its Final Stages? [view article]
      With all the government bailouts, the real headline should say, "Inflationary Market in Beginning Stages." Sep 07 07:25 PM
    • False Data Clobbers the Markets [view article]
      And we will all continue living in the land of make believe.

      You keep betting oil and commodities will fall and I'll continue profiting off your analysis.

      A fool and their money are soon parted.       Aug 29 12:28 PM
    • Oil and Commodities Pricing: Fundamentals, Bubble or Manipulation? [view article]
      Sure we are in bubble territory with commodities.

      That is why the US oil supply inventory is in decline, the dollar has lost 1/3 of its value in the past 8 years, food prices are going parabolic, and the economy is robust and expanding. In addition, there is no price pressures coming from China and India, their use of oil is contracting, their demand for food and the Western lifestyle is contracting.

      We just don't get it. We long ago threw out any real fundamental knowledge of the markets. No wonder our financial system is collapsing. There is a true lack of vision and this is quite apparent with many of the arguments posted. Bottom line, America is so full of themselves that they don't even see the rug being pulled out beneath them.       Aug 21 04:10 PM
    • Home Prices Have Stopped Falling: The Statistics Are Skewed [view article]
      Hmmm....

      Perhaps there are small pockets in the US that has found housing stability, but I would say the majority of the market is still in free fall. Let's test the logic behind home prices bottoming.

      1. The economy has recovered and all's well?
      Nope, in fact it's getting worse.

      2. Inflation is in check and discretionary income is rising?
      Nope, inflation is heading in only one direction - to the sky - while median incomes are falling or remaining flat.

      3. There is a lack of supply of houses to meet a surging demand?
      Nope, the housing bubble over built the market and in some areas you have years of inventory.

      4. Home foreclosures are in decline and home prices have stabilized.
      Nope, the amount of home foreclosures are continuing to rise along with home inventory.

      5. The price of oil has come down enough to make over built areas, such as the central valley attractive to long distant Bay Area commuters?
      Nope, and I would consider this the death nail in the central valley and a lot of Southern California's housing market. As oil continues to move northward with no end in sight, that massive overbuilt inventory created for all those long distant commuters who could not afford to buy a house where they worked is going to make that market unattractive for years to come. In addition, the suburban hell we created in many parts of California is too spread out, not well supported with nearby local markets, and is going to look like the biggest waste of money around when people realize they can't afford the gas to drive several miles to the store to buy extremely high priced food while maintaining a McMansion that has an energy bill going parabolic.

      It is in my belief that the only way this housing market is going to recover is when inflation makes the materials of the house more valuable than the dollar.

      That day is coming soon, but is not for another year or two. Until then there is no bottom in this housing market.

       Aug 21 03:46 PM
    • T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter [view article]
      Speculation has nothing to do with food commodities price increases. If you did your homework it would be plain to see that there are real supply issues in our inventory created by global inflation (aka currency debasement) and the new bio-fuels movement (aka turning ones food crops into fuel for your car). Think of it this way. If ones purchasing power is diminished due to central banks creating money our of thin air, do you:

      A. Keep your money in a depreciating currency and watch your purchasing power erode?

      B. Buy tangleable goods such as food staples knowing tomorrow they are going to cost you more?

      Bottom line, until there is fiscal discipline on a Federal level (we in America are driving the global inflation rate being our currency is currently the World's currency), expect food prices to continue moving higher along with all other commodities. Inflation (the expansion of the money supply via bank bailouts, excessive lending, and a society that is based on borrowing and not savings) is a self perpetuating beast that left uncheck will destroy a currency completely.       Aug 16 07:36 PM
    • T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter [view article]
      The only fools in this commodities market are those who try to buy and sell in and out of it. If you can't ride the bull you will get trampled. Go long, hang on tight and prepare for the ride of your life. Aug 16 03:32 PM
    • T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter [view article]
      Within a larger bull market in commodities, one can expect corrections to be dramatic. On the other side of that coin, when they take off, expect it to be breath taking.

      That's just the way it is. Get use to it.       Aug 15 07:37 PM
    • Study: U.S. Has 118 Year Supply of Natural Gas [view article]
      118 years my a**. Try within 10 years. Something else to think about...when natural gas runs out, its production drops off a cliff.

      The problem with throwing out supply numbers is the fact natural gas use is accelerating. This is especially true when you start seeing it being used as an oil substitute to run everything our transportation system to powering the grid, to the creation of oil from the Canadian oil sands.

      Folks, don't buy into these so called resource estimates that the media throws out as being fact. These numbers are deceiving because they are always based on our current rate of use rather than our never ending growth model we run our economy off of. They always, always, always leave out the most crucial factor in determining the actual supply: THE EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION. If we were smart, we would plan our actual use based on that principle. We would then have far more accuracy and better planning to mitigate potential shortfalls.

      But alas we are short term thinkers, only concerned what next quarters profit will bring, living like there is no tomorrow. In the end we will pay for our exploitation and short sightedness.       Aug 11 11:47 AM
    • Obama Wants to 'Robin Hood' Exxon [view article]
      There are a few simple things to understand before you agree to higher taxes.

      1. This inflation we are experiencing is a FED created phenomena. Expansion of the money supply ultimately creates inflation. Rapid expansion of the money supply ultimately creates hyper-inflation.

      2. More money in the system puts pressure on a finite amount of goods. Take for example the housing bubble. Lowering interest rates to the floor and allowing anyone and everyone regardless of credit history to borrow money rapidly expands the money supply (yes, we in America have a negative savings rate, so all that borrowed money was created via the loan or as I like to say out of thin air). Now everyone wants to buy a house which puts pressure on the system. This so called bull market (aka inflation) drives price astronomically. We bundle this housing debt and try to pawn it off on the world as triple A rated securities. The housing market collapses and the world dumps these securities as a false hope of repayment, inflation is introduced back into our financial system and commodities rise.

      3. So called "Big Oil's" profit margin has always remained the same 8.5%. Big Oil doesn't control the price of oil on the world's market. Big Oil is rather small when you compare it to the state run oil companies of Russia and the Middle East. Big Oil's reserves has a very small influence on the world price for oil.

      Big oil makes big profits because 8.5% of $140 a barrel is a lot more than 8.5% of $10 a barrel. Big Oil's expenses to drill for new supply go up astronomically along with the price of oil. Big Oil is taxed heavily with wind falls profit tax. Big Oil doesn't have enough capital to make the necessary investments for future drilling and exploration. Big Oil eventually figures out its not worth being in business when you're taxed heavily while inflation (that expanding money supply) makes production cost prohibitive. The whole system, including those who taxed Big Oil suffers. This scenario has been proven over and over again.

      4. Heavy taxation creates apathy, destroys prosperity, and makes everyone poor. Vote it in and see how quickly it kills prosperity.

      The rich is powerful enough to protect their money. It's a matter if the rich wants to invest in a country that is founded on heavy taxation. Ultimately it will be the middle class and the poor the carries the burden of high taxation.       Aug 05 05:55 PM
    • Profit from the Peak: An Enjoyable Read About Our Energy Problems [view article]
      Folks, Peak Oil is not about the size of the tank, but the size of the tap. There stands the real issue. We can have 100 trillion barrels worth of oil in the ground, but if it doesn't easily flow to the surface and it involves a lot of energy to produce, you have a net energy looser. Compound this with insatiable world demand for oil (the other half the world's population wants to live like American's) and you have a recipe for demand constantly outstripping supply.

      And honestly Brian, 8 billion barrels and 33 billion barrels takes no time to deplete when world oil use is 85+ million barrels a day. Sure it can buy a little time, but with the majority of the worlds largest oil fields in decline, this will do little to keep up with the growing demand.       Aug 01 11:51 AM
    • Will Rice Fuel the Next Ethanol Trend? [view article]
      Food based ethanol is an absolute horrible idea. With food shortages (especially in rice) across the globe, even the thought of using rice as fuel is almost immoral.

      My prediction is food based ethanol (rice, corn, etc) is a guaranteed long term failure. Food harvest can be unpredictable year to year and allocating a percentage of the farmed rice to fuel is surely looking for trouble. Bottom line, people will not tolerate long term high prices and volatility in their food supply just to make sure someone can drive their vehicle. If these type of policies are pushed, expect major world instability.       Jun 30 12:00 PM
    • Oil Manipulations Exposed [view article]
      One last thing to think about. Sure we have moderate sized oil fields that we can still tap and bring online perhaps 10-15 years from now (what? Peak Oil is now?). This is especially true around the US. But, oil consumption is a world wide phenomena and sold on a world wide market! Each and everyday there are thousands of new energy consumers coming online from China, India, and especially the Middle East who have American dollars in their pockets burning a hole to live the good life...like we do in America! All this insatiable demand for oil will continue to outstrip supply by radical proportions. We have not found any significant sized oil fields in several decades meanwhile we are sucking dry the oil bank. And as much as you want to believe we have an endless gooey center in the Earth that produces oil continuously, well I have a bridge to sell to you.

      Folks come back to Earth. You've been doped up on oil for way too long. If you really want to understand what is happening, I highly recommend you research the following term "EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION."

      Meanwhile I think Chris Skrebowski, editor Petroleum Review sums it up our current situation quite well.

      “The first peak that we’ve achieved. … [is] in light, low-sulphur crude. The next peak will be when the producer countries’ exports start falling because their [internal consumption] growth rates are much higher than those in the West….Finally we will get the peak where we simply cannot produce any more of any grade, any quality, anywhere. And that will give the final kick-up [in prices]…probably around 2011.”       May 27 12:19 PM
    • Oil Manipulations Exposed [view article]
      You can whine all you want. You can even prohibit futures speculation. I can guarantee you this, the oil age is ending as we know it. Oil will continue to rise in price no matter what we do to try and mitigate it. And this is just the beginning. Expect all your energy sources to sky rocket in price. As we start to realize that oil is not getting cheaper, we will start putting heavy transportation demands on natural coal and natural gas. Well guess what? Our energy grids run primarily off coal and natural gas! I recommend you watch this short CNN story about what your government is going to do soon to your energy bill.

      money.cnn.com/video/#/...

      All other alternatives are going to take several decades to ramp up to any significance meanwhile Peak Oil is now. You best come to terms with Peak Oil, or you will become road kill on the slope down.       May 27 11:25 AM
    • Renewable Energy: Risk of Market Bubble [view article]
      Actually this was the oil rig story I wanted to present.

      www.bloomberg.com/apps...       May 20 12:37 PM
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